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:ԽϹٷʷǵֿй

Robert D. Kaplan С

Խٷʷǵֿйݡ

˼Խ׶ʷСںڵʷݣͼͼ˶ĻɫʯǽDzԽ11͡15ͺ18͵ֿйΡ۹֡Խֱ10Ͳй˺һֱͬйijϽһ漣ȥκ۶ܶԴ͡

Խȡ뷢磬ȻΪԼͼˡͬʱҲһͬйʱάԽ϶ҪһΪ龫ǵijУ͸ԹһdzΪһDZеǿĴۡ

Խĺߣشϴʮ·ڣӽӴĽԴȥԽʱҲæڷչãڹͰȨսΪӦԸսԽն

ҪˣתǵʷӽǣͨԽϵĿ⿴硣ԽϹ⽻ίԱḱϯ˵ԽϵĹؼݣDZƷԽ1975꣬1995꣬ʱԽʵֹϵԽϼˣŷǩ𡰿ܡЭ仰˵Ǽ硣ⴺ˵

Խûʮսһ⽻ٽ˵Խûǣǹ20%µδը𣬶˾ס3/4Խ˶ڡս֮ǵdzս˾͸ˡԽ˶սԲеһԭʤߡ

һԽϴѧ˵ȨİȫDZҪġʵϣԽ⽻ѧԺѧ͹ԱһáƺȨһ˵֮йй̫ǿ̫ԵԽһŮ˵ԣйȨв

ԽϵĹȥ޹ϵйȴĵλ޲ء̹1998йصԽϵġӰ硷һдԽϹٷʷǵֿУǵֿйԽϵıйƣԽκʶ̬磬ԽijеĽǺ;衣

һλԽ⽻˵ʷԽս17ΡīֻһΣ㿴ī˶ֶôСǴСĽ̿飬ڽйӢ۵¼

йԽϾøת

Խ˺йǡǡΪԽ޷޴ıڰӰ졣й˿Խϵ15Խ֪λþйĹϵ

ԽһٸңϺغˣȫóʮ·ڣԺԴҪҲйպƺӰĵط

ԽϿΪܱԽԸģĪڸùǰӶ˹ɹ6Ƚġ弶DZͧһλרұʾʽײԽ˻Ծط֣άЩDZͧҪķѾʡר˵ҪǣԽϱѵԱȽDZͧΪԸйDZͧüڷDZغ

ȻԽϹЩDZͧΪӣҲ˵ǵġ¼¶ооԱ˹ΪԽϰϣˡǿķϵٽڶǵľ´ڣй𡱡

20107£ںھеĶ˵̳ڼ䣬ԽʵϵսԻϵԽ翴йͬ㣺Ϊйв֮ͬڣӵвٵԵ棬ԽĿֻһй

ԽϾԶйͶԽ̫йй˴ԽijгԽϴйڶκιҡйԽϾøתй۲ƷԽϣ谭ҵ

⣬ԽϹԱǴһֵϵIJԳƣ˵ԶˮȲ˽𡱡йߣԶߣζԽϱй޷ᵽ𴦡ԽһλǰⳤʾͳϽйһʡ

Խʱ̵һᱻ׹

⣬Խ˶ijָΡһԱʾ˥䣬ʢֻжйڶǵͼ»УԽϵΪйĹϵԽϡ

ⴺرᵽй򿪴ţΪйԽṩ˵Ես¿ܻᷢʧҡҡͷԽʱ̵ģԹᡢý͸ַ֯ѹһʹ׹ǣȱˡᲴ޹һ

ԽϵһԭڹʵʧԽܵѷ壩ͳΣһղԼֻҪˮƽߣǾͲ顣ʵϣԽִڽһ飺һɹͳεĹңʱƸ

Խս25ʱ͸ƾƱӦΪϵʣĹ֮һͳֿǰԽеУ˾ֵﵽ1100Ԫͻ˹Ǻң쵼˵󴦴ɼȻǴܣԽִŶȻ͵ȥ107%GDPʡ

ԽϹĵͨܺ͡ȹ硣ԽϹԱģ****ܰ1975ǰԽĵ·ʱơϵѣɹҵı19ĩ20ͳйʱ֧䡣

ͬʱԽϹ쵼˽ǵ³ʿǵʱ徭ߣԼΪάҶȡοơ

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      2012/7/2 7:32:03

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      ʷδ---ǧԽ

      ԽԹзdzеϵִԽǶңԽΪԽŴйϷİԽйϵǰԽһ֧ŴԽ֧ڹԪǰ34ͣԽ˴·5֣йڣԽ㽭ʡһԽڸʡһԽڹ㶫(u)ڹʡԽ϶(lu)ԽԽϵĺ򡣰ԽеԽԼڹԪǰ4ͣǶսʱռ˺Ѿ˷ͭ˶ɽĻʼ׼ᷢչԽ......

      ̫ˣôϵͳҼҪѧϰˡ

      ҵĸпǣǧҪκһԼĹԽû200ĴϢʵʧأͲкʷӡ֤йȡκ壬ֻԵԼңò˵ǣв߻ı̨Ҳǻ뷨̫ãͻûйкͬС

      һ棬ҲһЩԪԽսϣʵʱǴˣվסòˣʱԽϲȡľλսܿ潻棬㵽ɽȻϮڲӺСɲӣҹϮţפòˣԪһģ

      Ҳ˵һ⣬ǾսһDzռ죬ǴϼңҸϡٻǣԽҲް취ֻаķݣIJ

      ʵһֱ룬ϺҲӦˣҲȥҲȥȥҾʹ򣬵һDzռǶЩСõİ취

      ʱȨЭǿġ һ£ϹشݺΪʤһǩԼڳԽλһ£ΪһԽˣô룿 ִԽŴڽֳؿϰ꣬ԮԽΪйսԿ䵭ԱսӰ죬ڱ뼯ȨĽҵµԽˣҲˣ޿ɺǡ 磬ҹӰ죬ǿˣҲ𽥵йӰ һ־ϯʱԽѺãԽ϶Կ·ߣҲԭҪǻDZءҲdz⣬˵ϰ뵺ϵлѪԵϵЩݹϵ໥ͨ飩ڿԮԽڼ佨ԽͶΣկǵλƽȣϣĵʵԽ֧ϵԽҲڽӡ֧ʽĹңʷԭԽϰ뵺ưһϹʶģڱ79սڵԽòƳΪڶǵķȷ棬ʵȻϸĻԽֻڼз֮棬ΪʲôԿйҲdzڶйIJΣԹйIJʹйðͷ죨ȻҲdzййȷġ 򵥵Ļǣǰиһݹϵܣ˼Σ򲻹Сܣһ󡣺һȺˣǽӶѴðдȺизķ˵Χһ٣Ѱȥ£ԼţѰһֱ˼ʮꡣڰ˾ӺûˣǰĴֱ࣬ԼҲôΣ᲻ֲףȻͷĻˣǻԭĴҲĦҷԴ ˵ҶˣԤԽҷԴ̬ڽϳʱ䣨˵Ҳ30ֻ꣩ейʵ㹻Ժƣ¶صλҲͲԶˡ ȻйҲܶΪôΧ£ҿΧµûʲôϣǡDZ˵ƣƣɲս֮ȫ˶йķչһжУʢٱȫлûȨȨȻܳưԵʵ˾Ҳʣʯˡ 08ΪʯͶȨ˺Ժ³ǣŻ µľƲʣĵؼʣµҶŷеԸĿ죬еԸʱµȨգ˭ȥ˭һ⵽ҵĴķˣһϴˣҲǿ֮һ Ǹ⣬˵Щ̫ˣвͬλĶԻظ̽֡

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      й˵ԽϾһһΪķŴɽΧˡа

      ԽϵӦоһ£ڷ˽Խ֮ǰԽϵʷúּ¼ġ

      ԽϵһӦ˽һ£ԽνĿʤġ

      ԽϵӦȥһ£ԽϴIJмͻȱݲǰݺ͡

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      2012/7/2 9:38:35
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       zl19700417 ڵ4¥ķԣ

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      ǺǣԽϾйĸʱܹʲôѣйĸйӱóԺúдЩЩԸȥЩҪʾй

      ˵ֳһֱŪԽСɴˣлôլʺȴʼû˼ǵǵĺã̫ң̫ƣˣȻԸѡлͳ

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      2012/7/2 12:45:41
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      ʷδ---ǧԽ

      ԽԹзdzеϵִԽǶңԽΪԽŴйϷİԽйϵǰԽһ֧ŴԽ֧ڹԪǰ34ͣԽ˴·5֣йڣԽ㽭ʡһԽڸʡһԽڹ㶫(u)ڹʡԽ϶(lu)ԽԽϵĺ򡣰ԽеԽԼڹԪǰ4ͣǶսʱռ˺Ѿ˷ͭ˶ɽĻʼ׼ᷢչԽˣռ˲˵쵼λԽϵһʷưӳˮ¡ʳΪ񡣡ռ߽úýػͳһй롢ࡢԡκҲ˰Խ֮ءȥԽ֮صĵطٽ٢ݣԽ˺ʱǿʢϸԽþſָij߿߿ͳƽֺٳƽֺʷ׵ʱĽֺʷΪãȨֽΪ2ݡжʱֺ桢3жʱϺࡢ֡4ʼǨڵ50ˡ롱ԽӾӡУϺ4Ҳǽ2ݵĹݣĻϸߣͨӰҲǿԽ˾𽥳뺺ںϵķչˡֺ3Ҳǽ2ݵĽݣͬ˳Խںϵķչˡʱ͢˷䵽ֺȿ뵱Ӿӡ׵ʱڵشңʿ˵ֺߺܶ࣬ҳǾټǨ㣬Խ˻ͨԣܵƻdzԽںϵķչںͳʱڣԽܵĽ׼ѹȺѹءʱֺ̫أٴϻԡ˸նȥ̫أҲ֪ĩжḯܡնǸ ۾Ǯ۾¡֮ˣпֽѹýý൱һɡնɱýʫʫҲΪ˲ŮӢۣȾ巴ҲӦࡢΪ䣬ʷϽ塣õֺ桢ϡֵȿԽٵ˵Ӧܺפȡ65ǣΪ顷˵Ϊ˸˷ŭ壬˵ԡ嶷˵Ǹ׼⡣Ϊʲô4ԽٵȺӦΪʲôʷ̫ع³ǵòԮأɼЩʷ̫ضնһ̰١ɷԮʺ8ǧϽֺ2˻ս׳ԮȻ벻׼ԣȷһͷԡһ޳ιפأǿͳΣһˮȣΪ˼£ȶľơԮ֮һһطٴ̰Ű޲̣Ͼ壬඼ʧܸաƳȨйϺפΪԽϲŵԶ³200꣬ĻõܴչںֵĻϴ˱֡ૡԪ3νԽϣˡַԽϣҲˡ֮ʹںǴδϡԽϵռǵйľޣйũҵܴסйӡˢԽϣ13ҶԽϿʼľӡӡ15ͺ󣬿ʼ徭Խ˳оסйݡϵء޽ǵʿΪ֮ƣԽˡԽȷʵԴԶ

      ˣDz뵽ʷҴҶӦ˼Խ֮Ӧôչ˿ԮԽʱͬ־ֵܣ79սӢۡҲܶ˲֪־ϯǰȫͨûԽɼԽʱĹϵ־ϯ֮󣬱ݱɽսǿܻ֧磬Ҳ޷Խϳ׳ǼʱأǵղǵĶ𣿡Ƹۣٶع нǧԽ׿⡣С֪̣ս֮սա

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      ӻDzа TMD Ҳ200 ֻ˵ ֽϵǰ ҿ

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      2012/7/2 9:08:40
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      79Խսʹϱ߾ȶʮ꣬ÿѪԵй˶޷ǵ껢ХϽѪȾķɡԽϺӿľ޻ĵطԽϵйʵԽϺһ£ŭŵľ޻ҪѪȵģŭŵľ޻޻ǿֲԽٸҿȮգžöףۣ

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      2012/7/6 1:36:57
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      2012/7/3 19:13:48
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      ʱȨЭǿġ һ£ϹشݺΪʤһǩԼڳԽλһ£ΪһԽˣô룿 ִԽŴڽֳؿϰ꣬ԮԽΪйսԿ䵭ԱսӰ죬ڱ뼯ȨĽҵµԽˣҲˣ޿ɺǡ 磬ҹӰ죬ǿˣҲ𽥵йӰ һ־ϯʱԽѺãԽ϶Կ·ߣҲԭҪǻDZءҲdz⣬˵ϰ뵺ϵлѪԵϵЩݹϵ໥ͨ飩ڿԮԽڼ佨ԽͶΣկǵλƽȣϣĵʵԽ֧ϵԽҲڽӡ֧ʽĹңʷԭԽϰ뵺ưһϹʶģڱ79սڵԽòƳΪڶǵķȷ棬ʵȻϸĻԽֻڼз֮棬ΪʲôԿйҲdzڶйIJΣԹйIJʹйðͷ죨ȻҲdzййȷġ 򵥵Ļǣǰиһݹϵܣ˼Σ򲻹Сܣһ󡣺һȺˣǽӶѴðдȺизķ˵Χһ٣Ѱȥ£ԼţѰһֱ˼ʮꡣڰ˾ӺûˣǰĴֱ࣬ԼҲôΣ᲻ֲףȻͷĻˣǻԭĴҲĦҷԴ ˵ҶˣԤԽҷԴ̬ڽϳʱ䣨˵Ҳ30ֻ꣩ейʵ㹻Ժƣ¶صλҲͲԶˡ ȻйҲܶΪôΧ£ҿΧµûʲôϣǡDZ˵ƣƣɲս֮ȫ˶йķչһжУʢٱȫлûȨȨȻܳưԵʵ˾Ҳʣʯˡ 08ΪʯͶȨ˺Ժ³ǣŻ µľƲʣĵؼʣµҶŷеԸĿ죬еԸʱµȨգ˭ȥ˭һ⵽ҵĴķˣһϴˣҲǿ֮һ Ǹ⣬˵Щ̫ˣвͬλĶԻظ̽֡

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      2012/7/3 17:31:02
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      ʷδ---ǧԽ

      ԽԹзdzеϵִԽǶңԽΪԽŴйϷİԽйϵǰԽһ֧ŴԽ֧ڹԪǰ34ͣԽ˴·5֣йڣԽ㽭ʡһԽڸʡһԽڹ㶫(u)ڹʡԽ϶(lu)ԽԽϵĺ򡣰ԽеԽԼڹԪǰ4ͣǶսʱռ˺Ѿ˷ͭ˶ɽĻʼ׼ᷢչԽ......

      ̫ˣôϵͳҼҪѧϰˡ

      ҵĸпǣǧҪκһԼĹԽû200ĴϢʵʧأͲкʷӡ֤йȡκ壬ֻԵԼңò˵ǣв߻ı̨Ҳǻ뷨̫ãͻûйкͬС

      һ棬ҲһЩԪԽսϣʵʱǴˣվסòˣʱԽϲȡľλսܿ潻棬㵽ɽȻϮڲӺСɲӣҹϮţפòˣԪһģ

      Ҳ˵һ⣬ǾսһDzռ죬ǴϼңҸϡٻǣԽҲް취ֻаķݣIJ

      ʵһֱ룬ϺҲӦˣҲȥҲȥȥҾʹ򣬵һDzռǶЩСõİ취

      ʱȨЭǿġ һ£ϹشݺΪʤһǩԼڳԽλһ£ΪһԽˣô룿 ִԽŴڽֳؿϰ꣬ԮԽΪйսԿ䵭ԱսӰ죬ڱ뼯ȨĽҵµԽˣҲˣ޿ɺǡ 磬ҹӰ죬ǿˣҲ𽥵йӰ һ־ϯʱԽѺãԽ϶Կ·ߣҲԭҪǻDZءҲdz⣬˵ϰ뵺ϵлѪԵϵЩݹϵ໥ͨ飩ڿԮԽڼ佨ԽͶΣկǵλƽȣϣĵʵԽ֧ϵԽҲڽӡ֧ʽĹңʷԭԽϰ뵺ưһϹʶģڱ79սڵԽòƳΪڶǵķȷ棬ʵȻϸĻԽֻڼз֮棬ΪʲôԿйҲdzڶйIJΣԹйIJʹйðͷ죨ȻҲdzййȷġ 򵥵Ļǣǰиһݹϵܣ˼Σ򲻹Сܣһ󡣺һȺˣǽӶѴðдȺизķ˵Χһ٣Ѱȥ£ԼţѰһֱ˼ʮꡣڰ˾ӺûˣǰĴֱ࣬ԼҲôΣ᲻ֲףȻͷĻˣǻԭĴҲĦҷԴ ˵ҶˣԤԽҷԴ̬ڽϳʱ䣨˵Ҳ30ֻ꣩ейʵ㹻Ժƣ¶صλҲͲԶˡ ȻйҲܶΪôΧ£ҿΧµûʲôϣǡDZ˵ƣƣɲս֮ȫ˶йķչһжУʢٱȫлûȨȨȻܳưԵʵ˾Ҳʣʯˡ 08ΪʯͶȨ˺Ժ³ǣŻ µľƲʣĵؼʣµҶŷеԸĿ죬еԸʱµȨգ˭ȥ˭һ⵽ҵĴķˣһϴˣҲǿ֮һ Ǹ⣬˵Щ̫ˣвͬλĶԻظ̽֡

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      ̲סðǣش˽⡣

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      2012/7/3 16:28:07
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       gongxianglei1014 ڵ3¥ķԣ

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