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帖子主题:美国网民:有没有人担心中国抛售美国债券啊?

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美国网民:有没有人担心中国抛售美国债券啊?

美国网民:有没有人担心中国抛售美国债券啊?

据我所知,中国是美国最大的债券持有人,日本是第二大的。日本已经开始减少购买美国国债了。如果中国抛售美国国债的话,国债收益率会上升,这意味着全国各地的公司会更倾向于增持更多的债券。这种情况会发生在市场已经存在极高的杠杆率……

Is anybody worried about China selling U.S. treasuries?

Reddit红迪网:有没有人担心中国抛售美国债券啊?Ajgbaby

As I understand it, China is the largest holder of U.S. debt and Japan is 2nd. Japan is already starting to reduce its treasury purchases. If China sells off U.S. treasuries that means the yields will rise and companies across the country will be less inclined to tacking on more debt. This comes at a time when the market is already extremely leveraged AND when the fed’s fund rate is increasing. This will cause cash to dry up in U.S. equities which will slaughter the stock market due to the deleveraging….I’m really not trying to be a contrarian, I’m just wondering if anybody shares this same view?

题主:

据我所知,中国是美国最大的债券持有人,日本是第二大的。日本已经开始减少购买美国国债了。如果中国抛售美国国债的话,国债收益率会上升,这意味着全国各地的公司会更倾向于增持更多的债券。这种情况会发生在市场已经存在极高的杠杆率,而且美联储的基金利率也正在上升的时候。这将导致美国股市的现金流枯竭,而且由于去杠杆化的原因,这会毁掉股市的。。。。。。我真的不想成为一个反向投资者,我只是想知道是不是有人也有同样的观点?

[以下是评论部份]

Nick357

China and Japan aren’t the largest holders of US debt. They are the largest foreign holders. The largest holder is the US Govt and then the US Citizens. China owns only about 6%.

中国和日本并不是美国国债的最大持有者。他们只是最大的外国持有者。最大的持有者是美国政府,然后是美国公民。中国仅仅持有约6%的美国国债。

dvdmovie1

I am not worried about China selling all of its treasuries. Am I concerned (and this isn’t a new concern, it’s been a concern of mine for some time now) that over the next decade or two the position of the US on the global stage will erode? Yeah. Am I a bit more interested in investing in the emerging market consumer than the US consumer? Yeah, actually.

我不担心中国会抛售掉全部的美国国债。我担心的是:(这也不是一个刚有的担心,我已经担心了有一段时间)未来十年或二十年,美国在全球舞台上的地位会被削弱吗?是的。我对投资新兴市场的消费者比投资美国的消费者更感兴趣吗?实际上,是这样的。

There’s a lot of doom porn “financial apocalypse” stuff that people can come up with at any time and if I totally got into that then I wouldn’t want to invest in anything and curl up in the fetal position in the corner. “OMG will China sell off all of its treasuries?!?!?” is not a new worry by any means. Will the dollar collapse?!?!?

任何时候人们都说出很多像“金融启示录”这样的预言,如果我完全陷进去了,那么我就会蜷缩在角落里,不想投资任何东西。“天呐,中国抛售了所有的美国国债?!?!?”无论如何这都不是刚有的一种担忧。美元会崩溃吗?!?!?

There’s a lot of things that can cause someone to essentially have decision paralysis and not want to do anything (or if they listen to Peter Schiff, believe that “gold is the only savior” and hoard that) because of the various possible financial crises that people can think up.

有很多事情可以让人们决策瘫痪,不想要有任何行动(或者他们会听彼得希夫的话,相信“黄金是唯一的救星”并大量储备),因为人们可以想出各种各样可能发生的经济危机。

注释:彼得?D?希夫,是资深的华尔街预言家,奥地利经济学派的坚定拥护者,尤以对股市、商品、黄金和美元表现的准确预测见长。

So yeah, can things happen? Yes, but they can happen at any time and I’ve heard “will China sell all of its treasuries” on multiple occasions over the last several years. I’m a lot more worried about a slow continued decline in the US than I am something happening overnight.

所以,事情会发生吗?会,但是任何时候都可能会发生,而且我过去几年在很多场合下都听到过“中国会抛售所有的美国国债吗?”这样的言论。比起一夜之间发生的事情,我更加担心的是美国经济持续缓慢的衰退。

ThisIsTheWater

The majority of US debt is held by us citizens, not foreign governments

大部分的美国债券在我们美国公民身上呢,而不是外国政府。

ryapric

This should be higher. Of the ~$21T in US debt, only about $6T is held by ALL foreign entities.

(美国公民和机构持有美国国债)这个数量还要更高些。美国21万亿国债中,外国持有的所有国债只有大约6万亿。

Spcymeatball

selling bulk treasuries/buying CNY does not seem to be something China would want to do.

A rapidly strengthening CNY vs USD would have a similar effect as tariffs on all Chinese exports to US.

大量抛售美国债券,购买人民币债券,这似乎并不是中国想做的吧。

人民币兑美元的汇率快速升值将产生的后果,跟对所有中国出口到美国的产品征收关税一个样。

ImpyKid

Yeah they cant ignore the macroeconomics of the situation no matter how badly they want to hurt the US, if they even want to hurt the US. We have to remember that a lot of China’s prosperity is tied to the US’ prosperity too.

是的,无论他们多么想狠狠打击美国,他们都忽略不了宏观经济。我们必须记住,中国的繁荣跟美国的繁荣很大程度上是绑在一起的。

BroadShoulders07

https://pro.creditwritedowns.com/2018/04/china-cannot-use-its-treasury-holdings-as-leverage-heres-why.html

Here’s a great write-up on why China cannot use its UST holdings as leverage.

tl;dr Chinese currency is pegged to the dollar. As a result Chinese purchase of UST are non-discretionary they buy dollars and ultimately invest them in UST. Also, current account surplus with US means they essentially need to buy UST. Market for treasuries is massive and likely can handle even large scale sale of UST’s by China.

链接这篇文章很好地解释了为什么中国不能利用其持有的美国国债作为杠杆。

文章太长了我没细看。人民币与美元是挂钩的。因此中国购买美国国债并不是随意的,他们购买美元并最终用美元来投资美国国债。同时,美国账户上经常有盈余,这意味着他们根本就需要购买美国国债的。美国国债的市场是很大的,而且就算中国大规模抛售持有的美国国债,情况也是可能得到控制的。

arindale

To be more specific, CHina is the largest foreign government owner of US debt, but they don’t own all that much (approx 1.18 trillion of about $21 trillion in total US debt) as of Jan 2018.

更具体地说,中国是持有美国国债最多的外国政府,但是截至2018年1月,他们并没有持有很多(在美国约21万亿美元的总债务中占大约1.18万亿美元)。

InTheWhaleRoo

Your cause and affect are way off. If China dumps treasuries, someone still has to buy it, and the US gov can buy them in unlimited number.

你们的分析错得离谱。如果中国抛售美国国债,那还是要有人买的,而美国政府可以无限量地购买这些债券。

abasoglu

I wouldn’t get too worried about US Treasury sales just yet. If China tried to sell all of its US Treasuries in a sudden burst, they would likely be the biggest losers. That’s because the steep, sudden decline in Treasury prices would hit their realized price for their sales.

我现在倒是不太担心美国国债被抛售。如果中国试图突然间抛售掉所有的美国国债,那么他们可能是最大的输家。这是因为美国国债价格急剧下跌的话,会影响到他们卖出的实际价格。

jdrvero

Historically speaking, I believe this resembles the problems we had with japan for a long time in the 1980’s. We ran a huge trade deficit and they bought tons of treasuries. We survived that, pretty sure we will be fine here too.

从历史上看,我认为这跟1980年代我们与日本长期存在的问题很类似。我们有很大的贸易赤字,而他们购买了我们大量的国债。我们安全渡过了难关,我很确定我们这次也会顺利的。

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