《经济学人》中国:中国想要什么

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《经济学人》中国:中国想要什么


China

What China wants

After a bad couple of centuries, China is itching to regain its place in the world. How should America respond?

Aug 23rd 2014 | From the print edition

中国

中国想要什么

在经历了几个糟糕的世纪之后,中国迫不及待地去恢复他在世界上的地位。而美国应当如何回应?

AN ALARMING assumption is taking hold in some quarters of both Beijing and Washington, DC. Within a few years, China’s economy will overtake America’s in size (on a purchasing-power basis, it is already on the cusp of doing so). Its armed forces, though still dwarfed by those of the United States, are growing fast in strength; in any war in East Asia, they would have the home advantage. Thus, some people have concluded, rivalry between China and America has become inevitable and will be followed by confrontation—even conflict.

北京与华盛顿有不少人正产生一个令人担忧的假设。几年后,中国的经济规模将会赶超美国(在购买力的基础上,中国已经到了对美国超越的临界点)。虽然其武装力量在美国面前还显得弱小,但正在迅速强大;任何发生在东亚的战争,中国都有主场优势。因此,有人断言,中国和美国之间的竞争不可避免,接着会发展成对峙,甚至会发展成冲突。

Diplomacy’s task in the coming decades will be to ensure that such a catastrophe never

takes place. The question is how?

未来十年的外交工作将能确保这一的灾难不会发生。但问题是怎么做?

Primacy inter pares

领头羊

Some Western hawks see a China threat wherever they look: China’s state-owned businesses stealing a march in Africa; its government covering for autocrats in UN votes; its insatiable appetite for resources plundering the environment. Fortunately, there is scant evidence to support the idea of a global Chinese effort to upend the international order. China’s desires have an historical, even emotional, dimension. But in much of the world China seeks to work within existing norms, not to overturn them.

一些西方鹰派无论从何处都能看到中国的威胁:中国的国有企业正在非洲捷足先登;其政府在联合国投票中包庇独裁者;其对资源无法满足的欲望正吞噬着环境。幸运的是,现在还没有足够的证据证明,中国正努力颠覆国际秩序的假设。中国的愿望是历史层面和情感层面的。在世界上的很多地方,中国都在现有规范下竭诚工作,并非想要去颠覆这些规范。

In Africa its business dealings are transactional and more often led by entrepreneurs than by the state. Elsewhere, a once-reactive diplomacy is growing more sophisticated—and helpful. China is the biggest contributor to peacekeeping missions among the UN Security Council’s permanent five, and it takes part in anti-piracy patrols off the Horn of Africa. In some areas China is working hard to lessen its environmental footprint, for instance through vast afforestation schemes and clean-coal technologies.

在非洲,其商业来往都是交易型的,并且通常由企业家领导而非政府。在其他地方,一旦反应式的外交也变得更游刃有余,也更有效了。在联合国五个常任理事国里,中国是维和任务的最大贡献者,并且其参加了非洲之角的反海盗巡逻。在一些地区,中国也努力去减小其对环境的印记,例如大量的造林计划和清洁煤技术。

The big exception is in East and North-East Asia—one of the greatest concentrations

of people, dynamism and wealth on Earth. There, both its rhetoric and its actions suggest that China is unhappy with Pax Americana. For centuries China lay at the centre of things, the sun around which other Asian kingdoms turned. First Western ravages in the middle of the 19th century and then China’s defeat by Japan at the end of it put paid to Chinese centrality. Today an American-led order in the western Pacific perpetuates the humiliation, in the eyes of Chinese leaders. Soon, they believe, their country will be rich and powerful enough to seize back primacy in East Asia.

一个重大例外就是(中国)在东亚和东北亚(的表现)——该区域人口密集,富有活力与财力。在这,中国不管从言辞还是行为上都表现出对美式和平的不满。几百年来,中国都位于事件的中心,其一举一动都影响者其它亚洲诸国。首先19世纪中期西方的大肆破坏,和之后19世纪末甲午战争中国的战败,结束了中国的核心地位。在中国领导人眼中,现在在西太平洋以美国为首建立的秩序延续了这种屈辱。很快,他们坚信,他们国家要变得足够富裕强大以拿回在东亚的主导地位。

China’s sense of historical grievance explains a spate of recent belligerence. China

has deployed ships and planes to contest Japan’s control of islands in the East China Sea, grabbed reefs claimed by the Philippines in the South China Sea and moved an oil rig into Vietnam’s claimed exclusive economic zone. All this has created alarm in the region. Some strategists say America can keep the peace only if it is firm in the face of Chinese expansionism. Others urge America to share power in East Asia before rivalries lead to a disaster.

中国历史的屈辱感能够解释最近一系列的好斗行为。中国已经部署舰船和飞机来争夺日本在中国东海控制的岛屿,拿回菲律宾在中国南海声称主权的礁石,并将石油钻机装到越南声称的专属经济区内。这些导致了这一地区的恐慌。一些战略家说美国只有态度坚定地面对中国的扩张主义,才能维持和平。其他人则敦促美国在敌对导致灾难前,分享在东亚的权力。

America cannot walk away without grave consequences for the region and its own

standing. Since the end of the second world war, American security has been the basis of Asian prosperity and an increasingly liberal order. It enabled Japan to rise from the ashes without alarming its neighbours. Indeed, China’s race to modernity could not have happened without it. Even Vietnam, America’s old foe, is clearer than ever that it wants America’s stabilising, reassuring presence.

美国已不能全身而退,那样必然会给这一地区和自身地位带来严重的后果。自从第二次世界大战结束后,美国的保护已经成为亚洲繁荣的基础,同时也是日益自由的秩序的基础。它确保日本从废墟中重整旗鼓并且没有引起邻国的恐慌。实事求是的说,倘若没有美国的保护,中国的现代化进程也不会发生。甚至美国的宿敌越南,也比过去更加清晰的认识到需要美国稳定、可靠地存在。

Yet, if the liberal order is to survive, it must evolve. Denying the reality of China’s growing power would only encourage China to reject the world as it is. By contrast, if China can prosper within the system, it will reinforce it. That is why the United States needs to acknowledge one increasingly awkward aspect of its leadership: American advantage is hard-wired into the system in ways that a rising power might justifiably resent.

然而,如果自由秩序想要幸存,其必须得到发展。否认中国实力日益增长的事实,仅会鼓励中国像现在这样去拒绝这个世界。相反,如果中国能在这个系统中繁荣发展,那么它必然会加固这个系统。这也是为什么美国需要去承认其日渐尴尬的领导地位:在这一系统中美国的优势与生俱来,这样当然会引发一个新生力量的怨恨。

For a great power to find a new equilibrium with an emerging one is hard—because

every adaptation looks like a retreat. Three principles should guide America.

一个强势力量想要与一个新生力量寻求一个新的平衡是非常难的——因为任何适应都意味着妥协。有三个原则是美国应该遵循的。

First, it should only make promises that it is prepared to keep. On the one hand, America would be foolish to draw red lines around specks of reef in the South China Sea. On the other, if America is to count for anything, its allies need to know that they can depend on it. Although Taiwan is central to China’s sense of its own honour, America should leave Beijing in no doubt that it would come to the island’s defence.

首先,美国应该仅对其可以遵守的承诺进行保证。一方面,美国在中国南海星星点点的礁石附近画红线是很愚蠢的行为。另一方面,如果美国确实有价值,其盟友应该意识到他是值得依赖的。虽然台湾是中国自尊心的关键,但美国应该让北京知道,其无疑会参与台湾的防御。

Second, even in security, America must make room. China’s participation in America’s

recent RIMPAC naval exercises off Hawaii was a start. China could be invited to join Asian exercises, including for disaster relief. And America should avoid a cold-war battle for the loyalty of regional powers.

第二,基本在安保方面,美国也必须做出让步。在美国最近的环太平洋军演(不含夏威夷),中国的参与就是一个开始。中国应该被邀请参加亚洲的活动,包括灾难援助。并且美国应当避免因地区大国的忠诚度引发的冷战式斗争。

Lastly, America will find it easier to include China in new projects than to give ground on old ones—and should make more effort to do so. It is nonsensical that America should be leading the formation of the region’s biggest free-trade area, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, without the inclusion of the region’s largest economy. And there is no reason to exclude China from co-operation in space. Even during the cold war American and Soviet astronauts worked together.

最后,美国将会发现,将中国纳入新的战略要比对过去的战略做出让步要容易许多——并且美国也应该更加努力的向这个方向发展。美国想要在不包括这一地区最大经济体的情况下,去领导这一区域最大的自由贸易区(泛太平洋伙伴协作关系)的形成是十分荒谬的。并且,在太空领域的合作也没有理由将中国排除在外。即便在冷战时期,美国和苏联的宇航员都能一起工作。

Let the dragon in

让龙也进来

Why should China be satisfied with a bit more engagement when primacy is what it

seeks? There is no guarantee that it will be. Just now the rhetoric coming out of Beijing is full of cold-war, Manichean imagery. Yet sensible Chinese understand that their country faces constraints—China needs Western markets, its neighbours are unwilling to accept its regional writ and for many more years the United States will be strong enough militarily and diplomatically to block it. And in the longer run, the hope is that the Chinese system will of itself adapt from one-party rule to some more liberal polity that, by its nature, is more comfortable with the world as it now is.

既然中国想要成为这一地区的主导,那他怎会为这多一点的参与权而感到满意呢?并不能保证他会满意。现在来自北京的外交辞令充满了冷战、摩尼教的思维。然而,敏锐的中国人明白他们的国家面临着各种约束——中国需要西方的市场,他的邻国也不希望任其摆布,而且在往后的几年,美国有足够强大的军事和外交手段来阻止他。但在长期来看,我们所希望的是中国的系统能够适应其从其一党专政向更自由的政体自然过渡,像现在一样更加自如地和世界相处。

Drawing China into a strengthened regional framework would not be to cede primacy to

it. Nor would it be to abandon a liberal order that has served Asia—and America—so well. It may, in the end, not work. But given the huge dangers of rivalry, it is essential now to try.

将中国纳入加固的区域战略框架并非将这一地区的主导权交给他。也不是放弃对亚洲,同时也对美国有益的自由秩序。最终,自由秩序可能将不会有效。但鉴于对抗的巨大危险,现在很有必要去试一试。

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热门评论

我们中国人对待敌人 的耐心是你们想象不到的 回去看看匈奴 还有突厥的下场

2楼kjkjkj

在钓鱼岛、南海主权上,美国人的逻辑不值得驳斥,《开罗宣言》和《波茨坦公告》美国是制定者吧,二战后国民党政府在南海维权时,美国看见了吧,怎么不放屁呢?

该文有建设性的建议是“让龙也进来 ”,合作比对抗好。但我反对在太空领域的合作,想一想中国想参加国际空间站时美国的排斥态度,想一想中国为外国发射美国制造的卫星时,碰都不让碰的态度,现在还有什么理由与美国分享航天科技成果和心得呢?现在中国在航天的某些领域开始领先了就想分享,滚一边去,何况还涉及到军事秘密。

3楼沙田

美国别自以为是,其实美国什么都不是!这世上没有了美国的干预,地球会得到安宁,我就是瞧不起美国!咋啦?

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