China Is Developing Alarming High-Tech Weapons Systems





Missilesare displayed in a parade to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the founding ofthe People's Republic of China, in Beijing on October 1, 2009. JasonLee/Reuters


Over the past month, China hasshowed how its approach to its own rising superpower status applies to itsdefense policy. The results aren't exactly reassuring.


Outside of its borders, China has forged a wide-rangingpolicy of outreach and investment in Africa. China claims the offshoreextractive resources, and even the offshore territories, of nearly all of itsimmediate geographical neighbors in the South China Sea (see thisBusiness Insider graphic for more). The country holds substantial Americandebt, and commands an enormous trade surplus with the world's largest economy —a label that it hopes to seize from a wheezing U.S.


In the military realm, China's ambitions have a tendency tomanifest themselves through weapons technologies that skirt the boundaries ofinternational legality. Over the past month, it's been proven to be working ontwo such capabilities.


This is an asymmetrical tactic: China will never have amilitary with the global reach or technological and operational superiority ofthe U.S.'s. But it can at least develop worrying and globally impactfulcapabilities that most countries wouldn't necessarily want for themselves —unless global norms rapidly deteriorated.


The past month offered two stark reminders of China'sasymmetrical approach to its military development. In late July, the U.S. StateDepartment determined that China had conducted a "non-destructive"test of an anti-satellite missile. This wasn't nearly as alarming asChina's early 2007 testof the an anti-satellite battery in which it destroyed a satellitealready in orbit and created a potentially-destructive orbital debris field.


But even the abstract possibility of space warfare carriesextraordinary risks for the world's communications and GPS infrastructure —tools that the developed world's governments and militaries depend upon. Byeven pursuing anti-satellite capabilities China is suggesting that it mightconsider orbital assets to be in play in a future conflict.


Such weaponry isn't exactly illegal under the existinginternational legal regime, but it looks ahead to a mode of warfare that muchof the world shudders to contemplate at the moment, including the U.S. In anemail to Space News in the wake of last month's test, a U.S. StateDepartment spokesperson called on China "to refrain fromdestabilizing actions ... such as the continued development and testing ofdestructive anti-satellite systems."

在现有的国际法律制度下,这些武器并非都是非法的,但它们看起来更像是一个战争模式。考虑到当前的情况,世界上大部分国家都会不寒而栗,包括美国。上个月,在寄给《Space News》一封测试邮件后,美国国务院发言人呼吁中国“克制不稳定的行动,就像继续发展和测试具有破坏性的反卫星系统。”

And two weeks ago, China confirmedthe existence of the long-rumored Dongfeng-41A next-generationintercontinental ballistic missile, which can supposedly carryup to ten nuclear warheads a distance of 12,000 kilometers.


Multi-warhead missiles were banned under a 1993 arms reductiontreaty between Russia and the U.S. that Russia later annulled.The treaty only applied to those two countries, and even then, it lasted forless than a decade.


But the logic that convinced the world's leading nuclearpowers to eschew the very type of missile that China is developing stillapplies.


In a nuclear exchange, a country with multi-warheadmissiles could deliver a potential death-blow to its enemy on a single volley.More importantly, it would have an incentive to do so if it believed itsopponents had the same kind of multi-bomb delivery system. "Firststrike" would become "only strike" under such a state of play:an aggressor would have to defeat its enemy on the first go-round if it wantedto defeat them at all, with little room for error or negotiation.


Again, this is an asymmetric capability. China isdeveloping weaponry that the rest of the world has mostly eschewed, in the hopeof deriving an advantage from their rivals' complacency.


This is no reason for panic — China isn't about to goaround blowing up satellites or lobbing dozens of nukes. It's an ambitious andsometimes aggressive actor, but by no means an irrational or craven one.


But the past month reveals something important aboutChina's rise to superpower status. China's growing power and influence doesn'tjust derive from its population, economic clout, or sizable military. It alsocomes from its willingness to plot its own course, even against prevailinginternational norms — and its certainty that it's become too large andindispensable to have to pay any price for it.



[ 转自铁血社区 http://bbs.tiexue.net/ ]


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评 论


中国 正在快速和平崛起,美国 要学会逐步适应 中国技术的超越。。。。

双方的军事技术交流只能逐步开始,现在中国可以向美国输出一些民用技术;如果美国愿意 学习、中国 愿意 向美国输出 世界最先进的高铁技术。。。。


当大象的身影出现在水源地的时候,感到恐惧和威胁的只有平时张牙舞爪横行霸道弱肉强食的狮虎和豺狼, 而斑马、羚羊小鹿和小兔则是欢欣鼓舞的,因为他们也可以与大象一起分享而不必担心会有生命危险,这算是草原现象吧?