美网民:安倍的秘密武器-这不可能,日本经济要玩完了

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导读:THE YALE PROFESSOR SHAPING JAPAN'S ECONOMY***** [size=16]Why you should care 你为什么要关注 If Japan’s economic experiment is a success, it will lift the global economy and provide some important lessons. And flush friends make for flush fri

THE YALE PROFESSOR SHAPING JAPAN'S ECONOMY***** http://www.*****

一个正在改造日本经济的耶鲁教授

美网民:安倍的秘密武器-这不可能,日本经济要玩完了


美网民:安倍的秘密武器-这不可能,日本经济要玩完了


Why you should care

你为什么要关注

If Japan’s economic experiment is a success, it will lift the global economy and provide some important lessons. And flush friends make for flush friendships.

如果日本的经济实验获得了成功,它将会提振全球经济,并且提供宝贵经验。与此同时,日本的国际形象将大幅提升。

When Shinzo Abe, head of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party, decided to mount a political campaign premised on the radical restructuring of Japan’s economy, he placed a call to Yale professor emeritus Koichi Hamada

当安倍晋三作为自民党党首决定参加以激进经济改革为前提的竞选时,他电话联系上了耶鲁大学退休教授 滨田宏一 。

“Japanese investors are cheering the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s best year since 1972. What’s behind the stunning turnaround?”

“日本的投资者正在为自1972年以来东京股票交易所收成最好的一年而欢呼,这成功的背后是什么在起作用?”

One of the deans of the Japanese economics community, Hamada had been trying to persuade Abe and other Japanese politicians for years that only bold steps will help pull the country’s economy out of its two-decade malaise.

最为日本经济界的领军人物之一,滨田宏一一直在游说安倍晋三以及各位日本政要,他认为只有大胆改革,推出新政才能使日本走出二十多年的经济低迷。

The 77-year-old professor finally found someone who was willing to listen.

这位77岁的教授总算找到了自己的听众了。

That call took place in the fall of 2012. Barely a year later, the Japanese government has dropped the term “deflation” — the bête noir of its economy — from its monthly reporting, and Japanese investors are cheering the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s best year since 1972.

安倍在2012年的秋天打了这个电话,仅仅一年之后,日本政府的月度报告里面就再也没出现“通货紧缩”——日本经济的祸根——这个词了,然后东京证券交易所就迎来了自1972年以来难得的春天。

What’s behind the stunning turnaround? An aggressive set of monetary and fiscal policies that Hamada and other senior economists have been pushing to reset expectations about the Japanese economy and encourage companies and individuals to invest and spend more. The key element has been the effort to increase inflation by committing to the monetary policy of “quantitative easing” — increasing a country’s money supply by buying up government bonds.

成功的背后是什么在起作用?是滨田宏一和其他高级经济学家推动的一系列积极的货币和财政政策在起作用,改变了人们对日本经济的期待,鼓励公司和个人去投资和消费。通过购买国家债券增加货币供应的量化宽松的货币政策来促进通货膨胀。

“These policies aren’t exactly new, but the scope is exponentially larger than anything Japan has tried before.”

“这些政策并不新,但是这一次的规模比日本以往任何一次都要大。”

It’s the same sort of tactic Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has used over the last few years to propel America’s gradual recovery. The Bank of Japan is hoping to drive up inflation to 2 percent by 2015, an ambitious goal that it insists is within reach. A happy side effect has been the devaluation of the Japanese yen, making the country’s goods cheaper abroad and boosting exports. On the fiscal side, the Abe government passed a massive $200 billion stimulus package.

这次的政策措施和美国央行主席伯南克过去几年推动美国经济复苏的政策措施一样。日本银行希望在2015年之前将通货膨胀率提高到2个百分点,日本央行认为自己有能力达成这一目标。如此一来,日本货币就会贬值,使日本的商品比国外的便宜,促进了日本的出口。安倍政府通过了2000亿美元的财政刺激款项。

Koichi Hamada speaks during an event in Tokyo on Sept. 4, 2013.

2013年9月4日兽 滨田宏一在活动中讲话。

These policies aren’t exactly new, but the scope is exponentially larger than anything Japan has tried before, says Peter A. Petri, professor of international finance at Brandeis University and an expert on Asia. Through his bold rhetoric and personnel moves, Abe has signalled “the beginning of a comprehensive and sustained effort to build a new economic model,” Petri says. “A lot of this is about expectations, and they managed expectations marvelously in the last year.”

布兰迪斯大学国际经济教授,亚洲方面经济专家Peter A. Petri发表讲话:“这些政策确实不新,但是这一次的政策规模以日本以往任何一次都要大。“安倍通过大胆的言行及人事调动开启了全方位和持续性的新经济模式。人们对这样的经济模式更多的是一种期待,但是去年一年来,日本没有让人们的期望落空,“他说。

Hamada counseled Abe as he was crafting the policies, but he demurs when asked if he’s the “brains” behind the approach, as many have called him。

滨田宏一是安倍政策的幕后顾问,但被问及是否是安倍政策的制定者时,他否认了。

“Hamada cannot help the prime minister when it comes to the tricky politics of the next and, experts say, most crucial, phase of Abenomics — structural reforms.”

专家们认为,在涉及到安倍经济接下来最棘手和最关键的结构改革议题时滨田宏一是无法给首相提供帮助的。

“That is an honor, but there are at least two or three or more who could be called the same way,” says Hamada, who started out studying law before turning to economics. He’s since amassed an impressive array of academic degrees — a bachelor’s and master’s as well as a law degree from the University of Tokyo plus a master’s and Ph.D. in economics from Yale. Hamada returned to New Haven from Tokyo in 1986 and has been teaching at Yale ever since. But he maintains his Japanese citizenship and still speaks English with a heavy accent.

先是学习法律后来改学经济的滨田宏一说:“这是一种荣誉,但至少还有2、3个人或者更多人应该获此殊荣。”他获得了很多有价值的学位——东京大学学士和硕士学位以及一个法律学位,以及耶鲁大学经济学硕士和博士学位。Hamada从1986年从东京回到康涅狄格州黑文市并在耶鲁大学任教。但他仍保留他的日本身份,讲英语仍然带着很重的口音。

Hamada first met Abe while serving as a senior adviser for the Japanese government’s Economic Planning Agency from 1998 to 2001. Abe was a deputy cabinet secretary, first under Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori and then for Mori’s successor, Junichiro Koizumi, and he was responsible for coordinating meetings with Hamada’s agency.

Hamada第一次见安倍晋三是在从1998至2001年担任日本政府经济计划署的高级顾问的时候。安倍当时是前首相森喜朗和继任者小泉纯一郎的官房副长官,负责协调滨田宏一所在机构的会议。

The two kept in touch and when Abe made a bid for prime minister in the fall of 2012, “our paths suddenly joined together” again, Hamada says.

滨田宏一说,两人互相保持联系,当安倍晋三在2012年秋竞选首相时,我们的道路就交集在一起。

Hamada has since become one of Abe’s most trusted economic advisers, even from his base thousands of miles away in Connecticut.

从此滨田宏一成为安倍晋三最信任的经济顾问之一,即使他远在几千英里外的康涅狄格州。

Shinzo Abe

Abe is not an economics expert, says Petri, but he was “sufficiently knowledgeable to listen to economists” like Hamada, who collectively have “played an important role in convincing him that fairly extraordinary steps had to be taken” to right the Japanese economy.

安倍并不是一个经济方面的专家,PRTRI说,但是他知道要听取像宏一这样的专家的意见。宏一等经济学家在劝说他用不寻常的措施来矫正日本经济方面起了重要作用。

That’s not to say that the prime minister always heeds his advisers. For example, Abe announced in October that he would allow an increase Japan’s sales tax this coming spring, despite strong warnings from Hamada that the move could jeopardize the economy’s nascent recovery. Hamada now says that the Bank of Japan should be able to mitigate the impact through monetary policy, but it will have be proactive. “The bank of Japan should be watching all the time,” he says.

这也不是说首相对他的建议者一直言听计从。比如在十一月,安倍宣称他将会在来年春天提高营销税的税率。但这明显有别于的宏一的想法,后者认为这一举动将会危及正在转好的日本经济。宏一说日本银行将通过货币政策缓解这件事带来的影响,不过得提前行动。“日本银行应该时刻关注”他说。

And Hamada cannot help the prime minister when it comes to the tricky politics of the next and, experts say, most crucial, phase of Abenomics — structural reforms. The Yale economist says that without a restructuring of the Japanese economy — through government deregulation, lowering corporate tax rates, opening up the labor market and freer trade — it will not be able to sustain the growth of the first year of Abenomics.

而在面临安倍经济学最重要的部分--结构重组时,专家们认为滨田宏一显然无法给首相提供帮助。这位耶鲁教授说如果不对日本经济进行重新改革--政府放宽管制,降低公司税率,开放劳工市场和进一步开放自由贸易--日本将不能保持安倍经济学实施后第一年那样的经济增长率。

“Abenomics is at this kind of critical stage where the first part of it, which is to build up confidence that Japan can do better than it has … has been tremendously successful,” says Petri. Now ”people’s confidence has to be justifed by real reform.”

安倍经济学正处在初期的重要阶段,第一阶段的成功让日本人民看到了未来,增加了他们的信心。现在,必须通过真实的改革来继续赢得人们的信心。

Those efforts, however, face stiff opposition from entrenched bureaucrats and some of Japan’s most powerful industries. Any one of the reforms is a heavy political lift; achieving them all will likely take decades. And external factors — like rising tensions with China and South Korea — could also upset the recovery.

然而,这些改革面临着来自保守派官僚和一小部分日本最有实力企业的顽强反对。任何一项改革都是一项巨大的政治提升,而全部实现它们大概需要几十年。同时外部因素—如日韩和中日之间越发紧张的关系—也会阻扰日本经济的发展。

Hamada does not underestimate the challenges. Some of the reforms he and others are calling for — like new immigration policies — could fundamentally reshape Japanese society. Says Hamada, ”The Japanese may have to sacrifice their tradition, ethnic homogeneity, sometimes a very safe way of life.”

宏一没有低估这些挑战。他和其他人提倡的一些改革—比如移民政策—可以对日本社会进行根本性的改造,宏一说“日本可能必须牺牲掉他们的传统、民族同质性(保持日本种族人口纯正的一种思想)以及有时候一种安全的生活方式。”

Without such steps, however, there’s a good chance that Japan’s gains from year one of Abenomics may dissolve into another lost decade.

然而,没有这些措施,日本在安倍经济学施行的一年中的所得很有可能会消失在另一个失落的十年里。

评论翻译

rotorhead1871 · July 20 at 8:25pm +3

japanese society is too closed for this to work in the long run...they just cannot let anybody else in their game.

.Says Hamada, ”The Japanese may have to sacrifice their tradition, ethnic homogeneity, sometimes a very safe way of life.”

and THAT will never happen.......

日本社会太封闭,所以从长远来看,安倍的政策是无法奏效的...他们不会让任何人进入他们的社会。

宏一说“日本或许必须得牺牲掉自己的传统、保持民族同质性以及有时候一种非常安全的生活方式”

这个永远不会发生...

Mike Carter · July 22 at 11:53am

It’s the same sort of tactic Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has used over the last few years to propel America’s gradual recovery. - one of the worst recoveries in American history and a decidedly failed strategy which is now crumbling at its very foundation as our economy retracts instead of expanding.

这和美联储的主席BEN Bernanke 过去几年用于振兴美国经济的做法是一样的——美国史上最糟糕的一次复兴,并且绝对是一个失败的政策,在我们的经济不仅没有前进,反而是在后退了。

Brian Lamothe @mike Carter · July 23 at 8:09am +1

And what would you have proposed? Because I and many others are doing very well right now. And what exactly is this evidence of the economy retracting you speak of? One bad quarter which coincided with the worst winter in recent memory? Sounds like you are getting your news from a bunch of negative blowhards.

你觉得该怎样做?因为我和其他人现在都过的不错。而且你说经济后退的证据到底在哪里?貌似你似乎是从一些讲大话的悲观家伙那听来的消息。

Christian Russo @Brian Lamothe · July 24 at 8:26am

Brian Lamothe Just wait until the fed funds rate is increased from 0%. Every time there's been even a whisper of a rate increase, the market sells off-... and we know quantitative easing can only last for so much longer. Sure, right now everything is peachy, but if you comprehend what the results will be when the aforementioned occurs, you will understand Mike's point.

Brian Lamothe在等待联邦资金利率从0%开涨,每次当有利率上涨的谣言传开后,市场就开始抛盘,

而且我们知道量化宽松政策的效果也是有限的,现在的一切看起来貌似都很正常,但是如果你知道当上述情况发生的时候会有什么后果,你就了解Mike的观点了

John David Deatherage · July 20 at 3:03pm

This author confuses growth in the stock market with growth in the economy. The Japanese Central Bank's loose money policies are boosting stock prices. That is not evidence that the economy is growing faster.

作者混淆了股市增长和经济增长。日本中央银行宽松的财政政策是为了促进股市价格上涨。这并不代表经济增长加快了。

Andy Cho · July 20 at 10:53pm

it's NOT going to happen... japanese economy dooms-day~

这不可能,日本经济要玩完了

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