美国:我们是否低估了中国的军事能力?

Are We Underestimating China's Military?

我们低估了中国军力吗?

This past March, Brian Weeden, a formerU.S. Air Force space analyst published a report demonstratingthat China is the first country in the world with a weapon capable ofdestroying satellites in geostationary orbit. The report detailed how Chinatested in May 2013 amobile, direct ascent anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon system capable of targetingsatellites in medium earth orbit, highly elliptical orbit, or geostationaryorbit. The new capability complements China’s arsenal of kinetic andnon-kinetic ASATs, and signals every U.S. satellite is now vulnerable todestruction in time of war.

美国空军空间分析家BrianWeeden三月份发表报告称中国是第一个拥有能力摧毁地球静止轨道卫星的国家。该报告中称中国于2013年5月测试了一枚可摧毁中地球轨道、高椭圆轨道或者地球静止轨道卫星的反卫星武器,这令中国拥有了一个新的杀手锏,意味着战时美国的卫星将受到威胁。

Mr. Weeden’s report follows on the heels ofrevelationsin January that China had tested the WU-14 hypersonic glide vehicle, anexperimental weapon capable of evading missile defenses. With the Army testing its own AdvancedHypersonic Weapon in November 2011, many observers had regarded hypersonics asan area of cutting-edge development where the United States held a significanttechnological lead. China’s January test shattered that assumption and conveyedthe Chinese were at most a few years behind.

而就在一月份,有报道说中国已经测试了WU-14超高声速滑翔飞行器,这种还在实验中的武器有能力躲避导弹防御。而美国军队于2011年11月就进行了超高音速武器的测试,那时许多观察家就认为作为尖端的研发领域,美国在超高音速领域具有绝对的领先优势。而中国一月份的测试让这样的猜想灰飞烟灭,而且表明了中国在该领域最多只比美国落后几年时间。

In Congress, Frank Kendall, the Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology,and Logistics recently testified that “theU.S. military’s technological superiority is being ‘challenged in ways that Ihave not seen for decades, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region’,”by China. He further added: "Technological superiority is not assured.This is not a future problem. This is a here-now problem." China’smilitary developments are rapidly outpacing their coverage in the press andacademia, and there is a lagging but growing realization that China’s militarycapabilities in numerous areas of military competition are rapidly approaching,if not exceeding, those of the United States.

国防部采购、技术与物流部副部长Frank Kendall在国会上作证说“美国军事技术的领先在多方面遭到了挑战,这是几十年来我所没有见过的,尤其是在亚太地区,主要是受到中国的挑战”。他又说:“目前美国的技术优势已经没有保障,这不是未来的问题,而是当下美国所面临的问题。”中国的军事技术发展其实已经超越了媒体和学术界的报道,人们越来越认识到中国在很多领域的军事实力即使没有超越美国也正在追赶美国了。

Avoiding Analytical Mistakes

避免分析上的错误

Faced with the impressive scope and scaleof China’s military modernization, analysts must avoid some of the mistakesassessors of the Asia-Pacific military balance have made over the past decade.While not comprehensive, the following are a few for consideration.

随着中国正在进行大规模的军事现代化,分析家们不能再犯过去十年来亚太军事平衡的分析者们所犯的错误了。虽然并不全面,但以下几点值得思考。

The first common error is to count thetotality of U.S., or U.S. and Allied forces and measure them against China's,believing if the United States has more forces, then it maintains superiority.Unfortunately, the United States does not fight on a chessboard. What reallymatters is the localized correlation of forces, and that may be a strongerfactor toward deterrence in the region.

分析者们的第一个普遍错误是把美国或者美国和盟国总的军事力量同中国的军事力量进行比较,认为只要美国的军事实力更强大,那么美国就拥有优势。可不幸的是,美国并非在棋盘上打战。真正关键的是要对部队进行区域的协调,这样才能对某地区产生更大的威慑力。

The second error relates to how China’sdoctrinal and capability innovations, such as ballistic missiles, oftentimeslook very different from U.S. power-projection capabilities. But just becausetheir missiles do not look like aircraft carriers, does not mean they cannot beas capable as or more capable than U.S. systems and their ability to projectpower for desired scenarios.

分析家们犯的第二个错误是总觉得中国的学说和能力创新(比如弹道导弹)看起来和美国的力量投放能力是多么的不同。但是就因为他们的导弹看起来不像航空母舰并不意味着中国产的系统就没有美国系统一样厉害或者更厉害,也不意味着中国就没有能力把自己的力量投放到需要投放的地方去。

Third, while the U.S. has very capableallies and ones that share its values and interests in many ways, they onlymatter if they grant the United States access, and if they agree to fight.These are conditions the United States cannot take for granted.

第三,虽然美国有很多能干的盟友,而且在很多方面都共享同样的价值观和利益,但是真正重要的是这些盟友要愿意让美国军队进入自己国家,而且愿意同美国一起战斗。而这些好处不是美国想获得就能获得的。

Fourth, the United States should evaluatesome of the Cold War biases and analytical prisms that are now mistakenly usedto analyze the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). After learning in the 1990s thatintelligence estimates of the Soviet Union sometimes exaggerated Sovietcapabilities and capacity, the pendulum swung the other way, with Chinaanalysts consistently underestimating Chinese capabilities. During the 1990s,observers lambasted Chinese forces and predicted they would largely remainworse than they appeared. It was passé for some observers to talk of the“million man swim” well into the early 2000s, never expecting the Chinese tobuild a formidable navy. In the mid-2000s, criticism focused on deficiencies intechnical systems, such as Anti-Air Warfare capabilities. Currently, as Chinesehardware has improved, criticism has shifted to training and joint operations.For instance, discussions of the Chinese aircraft-carrier program are dominatedby the view that it will take the PLAN a long period of time to mastercapabilities, or at least as long as U.S. forces, seldom expecting they mightgain adequate proficiency at a faster rate.

第四,美国应该重新评估冷战时期的偏见和分析方法,因为这些手段目前正被错误的用来评估和分析解放军。在90年代,分析家们认识到之前对前苏联的情报分析有时候过分夸大了其能力和力量,因此,中国分析家们倾向于低估中国的能力。90年代期间,观察家们严厉斥责中国军事力量,并预测中国军事能力比表面上看起来还要糟糕。到了21世纪初期,如果某些观察家还说中国的百万大军将通过游泳入侵台湾,那这些观察家就真的有点过时了,因为他们从来就不觉得中国有能力建造一支强大的军队。在21世纪第一个十年的中期,批评的声音主要集中在中国军事技术系统的缺陷上,比如对空战争的能力。而现在,随着中国硬件的提升,人们又开始批评解放军的训练和联合作战能力了。举个例子,在谈到解放军的航母项目时,主流的声音就是解放军海军要想掌握航母的战斗力将需要花费很长时间,或者至少和美国海军所花费的时间一样多,而根本不觉得中国能以更快的速度掌握航母战斗力。

Time for Change

是时候改变了

Former U.S. Pacific Command Commander,Admiral Robert Willard, statedin 2009: “in the past decade or so, China has exceeded most of ourintelligence estimates of their military capability and capacity every year.” Thatis to say, every year, U.S. intelligence estimates of what and how much Chinacan do have been wrong.

前美国太平洋司令罗伯特威拉德上将于2009年说道:“在过去十多年来,中国每年的军力都超越了我们的情报分析。”换言之,每一年美国情报机构对中国军力的预测都是错误的。

In order to avoid underestimating China’smilitary capability and capacity, analysts can start by recognizing theaforementioned errors, and whenever uncertain whether or not Chinese forceswill grow, improve, or achieve a goal, give them the benefit of the doubt.

为了防低估中国的军事能力,分析者们首先要承认上诉的错误。当不清楚中国军力是否增长、提升或者实现目标时,就不要轻易的否定中国军力。

Timothy A. Walton is a consultant of theAlios Consulting Group, a defense and business strategy firm located inWashington, DC. He specializes in Asia-Pacific security dynamics.

Timothy A是一家位于华盛顿的防卫与商业策略公司的顾问。主要关注亚太安全。

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我翻开文章一查,歪歪斜斜的每页上都写着‘中国威胁’四个字。我横竖睡不着,仔细看了半夜,才从字缝里看出字来,满本都写着两个字是‘要钱’!

2楼 cc长空
我翻开文章一查,歪歪斜斜的每页上都写着‘中国威胁’四个字。我横竖睡不着,仔细看了半夜,才从字缝里看出字来,满本都写着两个字是‘要钱’!
鲁迅的语言风格啊

美国的星球大战计划从上个世纪就开始了,现在发展到了什么状况,外人无从得知,讲什么透明,请美国先把自己透明一下。曙光女神超高速飞机更是霸绝全球上空。现在让全世界深思的是,美国究竟拥有了怎样的军力。在俯视军费第二的绝巅之上,在全球殖民的掠夺网络中积累的令人难以测度的财富基础上,美国军事实力究竟要走向何方。设想,如果没有了核恐怖的平衡,单单是其他军事实力的情况下,美国是否会像对待南联盟、伊拉克、利比亚、阿富汗一样对待欧洲、俄国、中国等。所以,在核平横暂时还未被新科技破解的情况下,积极的推进国家实力、军事实力的全面发展,是关系到国家和整个世界能否从美国殖民阴影中走出的生死存亡之事。

5楼lands

美国就像一个放大版的英国,英国负责监视欧洲,主要挑拨法国德国,英国自己

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中国,美国自己使阴谋、占便宜、耍威风、装清高、看笑话。

奥巴马,你的手下告诉你“中国威胁论”,其实就是想搞点钱。中国无威胁才是真的,相信我。

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