[原创][赫芬顿邮报]设想2034年的三战 由中国挑起

不作不会死 收藏 213 62242

看完之后,真相喷本文作者一脸

Imagining World War III --In 2034

设想一下:2034年爆发第三次世界大战

原文链接:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/artyom-lukin/world-war-iii_b_5646641.html?ncid=txtlnkusaolp00000592铁血网提醒您:点击查看大图

VLADIVOSTOCK -- If the next world war is to happen, it willmost likely be in Asia and feature a clash between the incumbent hegemon, theUnited States, and the principal challenger, China. The good news is China doesnot want war now and in the foreseeable future, primarily because Beijing knowstoo well that the odds are not on its side. But if we look ahead 20 years fromnow, in 2034, the circumstances will have shifted significantly.

海参崴——如果第三次世界大战爆发,地点最有可能在亚洲,以现任霸主美国和挑战者中国之间的冲突为爆发点。好消息是中国并不想在现在和可预见的未来发动战争,主要原因是北京很清楚机会没有站在他这一边。但是,如果我们展望未来20年,形式会在2034年发生重大转变。

NOTNOW

不是现在

There are three reasons war is unlikely anytime soon.

短期内,不可能有战争的三个原因:

First, despite the double-digit annual growth in its defense budgets, China'smilitary still significantly lags behind the U.S.' It will take China 15 to 20years to attain parity or near-parity with the U.S.-Japan allied forces in theEast Asian littoral.

首先,尽管国防预算每年以两位数增长,中国的军事力量仍然明显落后于美国。中国要花15~20年才能追上或接近东亚沿海的美日盟军。

Second, for all the talk of mutual interdependence, China depends on America much more thanthe other way round. China is still critically reliant on the U.S and itsallies, the EU and Japan, as its principal export markets and sources ofadvanced technologies and know-how. Overall, China's dependence oninternational markets is very high, with the trade to GDP ratio standing at 53percent. China imports many vital raw materials, such as oil and iron ore.

As most of its commodity imports are shipped by the sea,China would be extremely vulnerable to a naval blockade, which is likely to bemounted by the U.S. in case of a major conflict. Both for economic andstrategic reasons, the Chinese government pursues policies to reduce thecountry's reliance on foreign markets, trying to shift from an export-orientedmodel to domestic sources of growth. It is also making efforts to secure rawmaterials in the countries and regions contiguous to China, like Central Asia,Russia or Burma, so as to reduce dependence on sea-born shipments. However, atleast for the next 15 to 20 years China's dependency on the West-dominatedglobal economic system is going to stay very significant.

第二,就所有关于相互依存的谈话而言,中国反而更依赖美国。中国仍严重依赖于美国及其盟友(欧盟和日本),因为它们是中国的主要出口市场,也是中国先进科技技术的来源。总的来说,随着贸易占GDP的比率稳定在53%,中国对国际市场的依赖程度非常高。中国进口了许多重要的原材料,比如说石油和铁矿石。

因为大部分商品进口是通过海路运输,所以中国的海上封锁极为脆弱。而在有重大冲突的情况下,很可能会由美国设置海上封锁。出于经济和战略原因,中国政府奉行政策以减少对国外市场的依赖,试图从出口导向型模式转变为增长国内来源。中国也致力于在毗邻的国家和地区获取原材料,如中亚、俄罗斯和缅甸,以减少对海产物的依赖。然而,至少在未来的15~20年来,中国对西方主导的全球经济体系的依赖仍然非常明显。

Third, China would have to confront not the U.S. alone but also America'sAsian allies, including Japan, Australia and perhaps India. Thus China needs atleast one major power ally and some lesser allies. Whether China dares to posea serious challenge to the U.S. will, to a large extent, hinge upon Beijing andMoscow forming a Eurasian geopolitical bloc. This is already happening now, butit is going to take some more time.

The bottom line: over the next 15 to 20 years a major warin Asia is highly unlikely because Beijing will be playing a cautious game.Even if a military clash does occur, it will be short, with China being quicklyrouted by the preponderant American force. However, around 2030 the balance isbound to undergo considerable changes, if China is successful in: 1) closingmilitary gap with the U.S.; 2) making its economy less reliant on the Westernmarkets and overseas raw resources; and 3) forming its own alliance structure.

第三,中国要面对的不仅仅是美国,还有美国的亚洲盟友(包括日本和澳大利亚,或许还有印度)。因此,中国至少需要一个大国盟友和一些小盟友。中国是否敢挑衅美国,在很大程度上取决于北京和莫斯科,他们来自于欧亚大陆地缘政治集团。现在这种情况正在发生,但它还需要花费更多时间。

底线是:在未来15~20年内,亚洲不太可能发生一场大战,因为北京将会很谨慎地玩游戏。即使爆发军事冲突,也将是短暂的,因为美国会很快打败中国。然而,在2030年,平衡必然会发生很大的变化,但前提是中国会在以下方面成功:

1)关闭与美国的军事差距;

2)减少经济对西方市场和海外原料资源的依赖;

3)建立联盟。

2034:INDO-PACIFIC COALITION VS. EURASIAN ALLIANCE

2034年:印太联盟对抗欧亚联盟

There is an infinite number of alternative futures. WorldWar III erupting in Asia may not be the most probable one, yet it is not themost implausible, either.

未来有无数种可能。第三次世界大战未必最有可能爆发在亚洲,但这并非最令人难以置信。

Let's imagine this scenario for 2034.

让我们设想一下2034年的情形。

China -- which four years ago completed its reunificationwith Taiwan -- is increasingly worried by the growth of India's comprehensivepower. In 2030, India overtook China to become the world's most populouscountry. Even more significant, India, with its much younger population anddynamic economy, has already been growing faster than China. India isvigorously modernizing its armed forces, which in a few years may present aserious challenge to China. With India-China rivalry for primacy in Asiareaching kanshijie new highs, Beijing resolves to strike first -- before New Delhi has achance to close the power gap. This is similar to how, in 1914, German concernsover the steady rise in Russia's strategic capabilities contributed to Berlin'sdecision in favor of war in the wake of the Sarajevo crisis. There was a beliefamong the German leadership that, by 1917 Russia would complete its militarymodernization programs and the window of opportunity would close.

中国越来越担心印度的综合国力增长,而他在四年前已经统一了台湾。印度2030年超过中国,成为世界上人口最多的国家。更重要的是,印度拥有更年轻的人口和更活力的经济,比中国发展更快。印度大力进行军队现代化建设,这在几年内会被中国提出严峻挑战。随着中印竞争亚洲霸主地位创下新高,北京决定先发制人,先于新德里关闭实力差距。这就有点类似于德国1914年担忧萨拉热窝危机后,俄罗斯战略能力的稳步上升会促使柏林决定支持战争。德国领导人有一个信念,截止1917年,俄罗斯会完成军事现代化项目,并关闭机会窗口。

Citing Indian meddling in Tibet and incursions across thedisputed Himalayan frontier, Chinese forces go on the offensive in the borderareas and hit Indian naval and air bases. The attack on India means war withJapan, as Tokyo and New Delhi have concluded a mutual defense treaty in 2031 --exactly to insure against a probable Chinese assault. Simultaneously with theattack on India, the PLA Navy seizes the Senkakus and tries to capture theRyukyu Islands.

引证印度干涉西藏和越过喜马拉雅边界的入侵行动,中国军队主动在边界地区发动攻势,并袭击印度海军和空军基地。进攻印度就意味着与日本开战,因为东京和新德里在2031年签订了共同防御条约,它能完全规避来自中国的攻击。在进攻印度的同时,解放军海军占领了钓鱼岛,同时试图占领琉球群岛。

In 2032, the Americans withdraw their forces from Japan,expecting that the Japan-India pact and the fact that Japan had, in 2029,become a nuclear-weapon state would be sufficient to deter China. The Chinese,in their turn, have made a gamble that the U.S., appearing to be in a newlyisolationist mode, would not intervene on Japan's side. Yet, after somehesitation, the U.S. enters war against China. This might be a replay of theJuly 1914 events, when Berlin calculated, wrongly that London would stay on thesidelines if Germany went to war against France and Russia.

2032年,美国将军队撤离日本,希望日本印度能够缔结条约。而在2029年,日本事实上已经成为了核武国家,足以阻止中国。相反,中国会有一场豪赌:美国会产生一个新的孤立主义模式,不会站在日本这边。然而一番犹豫后,美国终究会介入战争抗衡中国。这可能是1914年7月事件的重演,当德国发动对法国俄罗斯的战争时,柏林错误地认为伦敦会袖手旁观。

Two of America's Pacific allies, Australia and thePhilippines, as well as three NATO members -- Canada, Britain, and Poland,declare war on China. Thus the anti-China Indo-Pacific coalition of the U.S.,India, Japan and other allies emerges.

美国两个太平洋盟友(澳大利亚和菲律宾)以及三个北约成员国(加拿大、应该和波兰)向中国宣战。因此,反中国的印度—太平洋联盟将会出现,它由美国、印度、日本和其他盟国组成。

China is not lonely in this war. In 2025, China, Russia,Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Pakistan sign theEurasian Treaty -- a collective defense pact which became a political-militaryarm of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Mongolia was forced to join thepact in 2033.

中国在这场战争并非是一个人。2025年,中国、俄罗斯、白俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔克基斯坦、土库曼斯坦和巴基斯坦签订了欧亚条约。欧亚条约已经成为了政治集体防卫协定,它是上合组织的军事机构。蒙古被迫在2033年加入该条约。

Russia secures China from the north, provides it with rawmaterials and military hardware, as well as dispatches a small number ofmilitary personnel, such as fighter pilots and drone operators to fight in thePLA units. Apart from that, Russian direct involvement in the Indo-Pacifictheater is minimal. Moscow is mostly preoccupied with Eastern Europe,particularly Ukraine, where pro-Western forces supported by the EU and NATOhave attempted to regain control over eastern and southern Ukraine which,before war in Asia broke out, had been Russia's zone of influence. Russia andthe EU/NATO, while not formally in hostilities, are embroiled in a proxy war inUkraine.

俄罗斯从北部确保了中国的安全,并向中国提供原材料和军事装备,同时还派遣了战斗机飞行员和无人机驾驶员等军事人员编入解放军进行战斗。除此之外,俄罗斯直接参与印度洋-太平洋战区的可能性是最小的。莫斯科主要关注的是欧洲东部地区,特别是乌克兰。欧盟和北约掌握了乌克兰的亲西方力量,他们试图重新夺回对乌克兰东部和南部地区的控制权。在亚洲战争爆发前,这些地方已经影响了俄罗斯。虽然俄罗斯和欧盟/北约没有正式敌对行动,却被卷入了在乌克兰的代理战争。

Korea, which since 2027 has been a confederation of Northand South, stays non-aligned. Southeast Asian countries (except for thePhilippines) also declare their neutrality, as do African, Latin American andMiddle Eastern states.

自2027年以来,韩国已经形成了南北联邦,保持不结盟政策。东南亚国家(除菲律宾以外)、非洲国家、拉美国家和中东国家也宣布中立。

WORLDWAR-LITE

世界大战精简版

In terms of warfare, World War III will be vastly different from the majorconflicts of the 20th century. For one thing, the major combatants will benuclear powers. Being aware that the actual use of atomic weapons will resultin mutual extermination, the warring sides will refrain from resorting to them.That will not be unlike World War II, when the belligerents held largestockpiles of chemical weapons but did not use them for fear of retaliation.

从战争方式来说,第三次世界大战截然不同于20世纪的主要冲突。首先,主要参战国将会是核大国。意识到使用原子弹会导致相互灭绝,交战双方会避免使用它们。这不同于第二次世界大战,因为虽然交战双方都持有大量化学武器,但因为害怕报复而不会使用它们

Nukes are also likely to have a moderating effect on theconduct of conventional hostilities. A state is likely to employ nuclearweapons as the last resort, in particular, if its heartland areas are invadedor its major cities are bombarded. Understanding this, the other side mayprefer not to drive the opponent into a corner. This could involve deliberatelyconfining the main combat zones to peripheral areas, away from the mostpopulated and industrialized regions. Furthermore, military strategists willlikely remember the past lessons that a big offensive land war on the Asiancontinent is almost always a lost affair. All these considerations will leavethe sea, the air and barren mountainous areas, as well as outer space andcyber, the principal battlegrounds for the Third World War.

核武器也可能对常规战争产生调节作用。特别是一个国家的中心地区遭到侵犯或主要城市遭到轰炸时,他很有可能使用核武器最为最后的手段。了解到这一点,交战一方是不可能把对方逼至角落里。战争很有可能涉及主要作战地的周边地区,而远离人口稠密区和工业区。而且,军事战略家也会记住大幅度进攻亚洲大陆总会失败这个历史教训。所有这些因素将导致海洋、空气、贫瘠的山区、外太空和网络成为第三次世界大战的主战场。

Another peculiarity of WWIII may be the continuedfunctioning of diplomacy and international bodies, serving as effectivechannels of communications between the adversaries. Many decades ofinternational institution-building will have proved not to be entirely in vain.Having failed to prevent war, international institutions will at least helplimit its scope and temper its effects. Even trade and financial transactionsbetween the enemies may survive to some degree, being rerouted via the neutralslike Korea, Singapore or Turkey. This will be the ultimate proof that economicinterdependence and war do not necessarily exclude each other.

第三次世界大战的另外一个特点是,可能会使外交和国际机构继续运作,以此作为交战双方的有效通信渠道。几十年来的国际制度建设证明了它并非完全是白费力气的。虽然未能阻止战争,国际机构至少能限制战争的范围和调和战争的影响。甚至于两个敌人之间的贸易和金融交易在某种程度上能通过中立国进行,如韩国、新加坡和土耳其。这就是经济上相互依存的终极证据,也是战争并一定相互排斥的最终证据。

Perhaps what we may witness could be termed a "worldwar-lite." As such, it may not require total mobilization of human andmaterial resources. In this regard, WWIII could be more similar to the SpanishSuccession or Seven Years' Wars of the 18th century than the "total"world wars of the past century. The fact that the war will involvecomparatively limited level of casualties and not necessitate completemobilization of resources may have the unintended effect of extending it indefinitely,compared to the past wars of attrition which could only be fought for a fewyears because resources got rapidly exhausted. If a war does not strainsocieties to unbearable degrees, they may learn to live with it. Thus could theThird World War become another Thirty or even Fifty Years' War?

也许我们能见证所谓的“世界大战精简版”是什么。例如,它可能不需要人力资源和物质资源的总动员。在这些方面,第三次世界大战更类似于西拔牙连续战争或18世纪的七年战争,而不是上个世界的两次世界大战。事实上,第三次世界大战涉及的伤亡水平会相对有限,也不需要完全动员物质资源。与过去的消耗战相比,第三次世界大战可能会产生意想不到的效果。因为资源的迅速枯竭,过去的消耗战只会持续几年。如果战争没有到难以忍受的程度,社会可以试着忍受它。因此,第三次世界大战有可能会成为另一场持续30年甚至于50年的战争?

That said, there will always be a risk that, at some pointthe "humane" low-intensity warfare with designated no-combat zonesand codes of conduct could degenerate into a more traditional bloodshed withheavy casualties and no restraining rules. Escalation to nuclear warfare cannotbe excluded, either. Whatever its outcome, this war will certainly end theworld as we know it.

尽管如此,第三次世界大战还是会有风险。在某些时候,没有指定战斗区和行为准则的“人性化”低强度战争有可能会退化成更传统的流血事件,从而导致人员伤亡惨重。而且,不能排除升级为核战争的可能性。不论结局如何,第三次世界大战都一定会终结我们所知道的世界。

[ 转自铁血社区 http://bbs.tiexue.net/ ]

107
回复主贴
聚焦 国际 历史 社会 军事

热门评论

6楼 渥佛根.米达麦亚
不是我看不起欧洲那帮人,真要中俄联合起来搞三战,毛子负责欧洲,兔子负责东亚(中东就交给那帮子伊斯兰们混战去)。美国双线作战,亚洲不想放弃,欧洲不能放弃,到底怎么办才好呢?。
就算把城市互相轰平,自古以来只要还有土地和农民,天朝还是天朝,西方就不再是西方了

粗看了一下,通篇都是针对中国的白痴言论。

美国到处都是同盟,中国却要强迫别人与自己结盟

中国实力不济美国等等。

终结世界----有种的来试试,中国人怕什么

一穷二白都过来了,你们美国人有胆量,

或者说背后的犹太老有胆量放弃这一切

---靠卑鄙无耻手段榨取的金钱财富

不要痴人说梦了,毛主席早说过了,

美帝国主义就是一只纸老虎

真理-----放一千年还是真理!


说的真精彩,如果你们派出奥特曼和蜘蛛侠出战,那么我们会毫不客气的派出五百年前大闹天宫的孙悟空消灭他们。

不是我看不起欧洲那帮人,真要中俄联合起来搞三战,毛子负责欧洲,兔子负责东亚(中东就交给那帮子伊斯兰们混战去)。美国双线作战,亚洲不想放弃,欧洲不能放弃,到底怎么办才好呢?。

42楼tyf0133

三战应发生在美洲 让这群杂种尝尝战火的滋味 让美国驻尝尝被无人机炸死的滋味 让美国猪尝尝亲眼看见自家房子被炸毁的滋味

213条评论
点击加载更多

发表评论

更多精彩内容

经典聚焦

更多
发帖 向上 向下
广告 关闭