[原创][ 美国 CNBC ] 中印一体,梦幻组合?

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导读:原文链接: [align=center] [/align] [align=center] [/align] [align=center] [/align] [align=center] [/align] MichaelIvanovitch 4 Hours AgoCNBC.com [/align] After a number of false starts in recentyears, it seems that India Prime Min

原文链接:http://www.cnbc.com/id/101870535 ... *******&doc=101870535

——正文开始——

Is 'Chindia' Asia's newdream team?

中印一体,亚洲的新梦之队?

MichaelIvanovitch 4 Hours AgoCNBC.com

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Wang Zhao | AFP | GettyImages

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang meets with Indian VicePresident Shri Mohammad Hamid Ansari at the Great Hall of the People in Beijingon June 28,2014.

2014年6月28日中国国务院总理李克强在北京人民大会堂会见印度副总统穆罕默德哈米德安萨里。

Wang Zhao摄制 法新社|Getty图片

After a number of false starts in recentyears, it seems that India Prime Minister Narendra Modi's landslide electionvictory and a strong mandate have finally opened the way to a broad strategicpartnership between Beijing and New Delhi.Closer economic and political ties withChina have been an important part of Mr. Modi's election program. He wantsIndia to catch up and compete with China and, in order to do that, he advocatesthe need for "skills, scope and speed."So far, he seems to have got the speedright. China and India have quickly moved to establish wide-rangingconsultations on bilateral issues. China's Prime Minister Li Keqiang was thefirst foreign leader to place a congratulatory call after Mr. Modi's election,expressing Beijing's desire to set up a "robustpartnership" with India. The Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi followedwith a visit to Delhi, and India's Vice President Hamid Ansari made a five-daytrip to China where memoranda were signed about Chinese companies' plans tobuild industrial parks in India.The China-India summit meeting inFortaleza, Brazil, on July 14, 2014 (on the eve of BRIC's two-day meeting) isthe first in a number of forthcoming summits scheduled for this year. Accordingto Indian media, that first encounter has been quite successful; it lasted 80minutes – double the originally allotted time – prompting the Indian leader totweet that he "had a very fruitful meeting with Chinese President Mr. XiJinping. We discussed a wide range of issues."The sensitive border and trade problemstopped the agenda. And in a new sign that the two countries are really movingcloser, Mr. Xi invited Mr. Modi to attend the summit of APEC nations (of whichIndia is not a member) next November in China, and to step up the participationin the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), where India currently has theobserver status.Beijing's invitation for India's deeperengagement with the SCO is of particular importance. That is an old ideastrongly advocated by Russia (the SCO's founding member) but, sofar, systematically blocked by China. If, as seems likely, India does becomethe new SCO member during the organization's next summit in Ufa, Russia, inJuly 2015 that would indeed take its relationship with China to the level ofstrategic partnership.

近些年在经历了一连串失误的开局后,莫迪似乎凭借压倒性的选举胜利和坚定的政令执行,最终同北京在战略合作关系层面取得了突破。与中国结合成更紧密政经关系,一直是莫迪先生竞选纲领中的重要组成部分。他希望印度能够与中国竞争并赶超中国,为了实现这点,他倡导要具有“能力,远见和速度”。

以目前来看,他似乎正有条不紊的一步步去实现。中国与印度在广泛的双边问题协商上进展迅速。莫迪先生当选后,李克强总理是第一时间致电祝贺的外国领导人,同时还表示,北京希望与印度建立一个“坚实的伙伴关系”。随后中国外交部长王毅将访问新德里,印度副总统哈米德安萨里还会对中国进行一个为期5天的访问,届时,(双方)将签署关于中国公司在印度建设工业园计划的备忘录。

中印在2014年7月14日巴西、福塔莱萨举行的首脑会议,(在为期两天的“金砖四国”峰会前夕)是今年举行的首次首脑会议。据印度媒体报道,首次会面相当成功;会议持续了80分钟–超过预定时间的两倍–印度领导人在推特上暗示,“他与习主席进行了一场非常富有成果的会谈。我们无所不谈。”

敏感的边贸问题提到了议程首项。但新迹象表明两国确实在逐渐走近。习邀请莫迪先生,出席明年十一月在中国举行的亚太经合组织首脑会议(印度不是该组织成员),鼓励他参与上合组织(SCO),目前印度处于该组织观察员地位。北京的邀请对于印度深入接触上合组织特别重要。这个过时的理念是由俄罗斯(上合组织创始成员)策划推动的,但,到目前为止,却是由中国主导。

明年七月,下届峰会将在俄罗斯举行,如果,似乎很可能,印度有望成为上合组织新成员,届时,印度与中国的关系必定会上升到战略伙伴关系层面。

Border problems and trade imbalances 边境问题与贸易失衡

Serious difficulties in attempting tofind a mutually acceptable settlement for a 2520 miles (4056 km) frontier hasbeen a major stumbling block between the two countries ever since India'sindependence in 1947. Technical discussions have been going on for decades.They will continue. The difference is that these discussions are now coupledwith the leaders' firm pledge to find a peaceful solution.More important, perhaps, is theagreement not to allow the border issue to stand in the way of closer economicand political ties. These are seen as confidence building measures that shouldfacilitate difficult territorial compromises.Trade imbalances are also a seriousproblem. The bilateral trade last year came in at $65.47 billion, with India'strade deficit amounting to $31.42 billion. A similar outcome is likely thisyear. According to China's customs data, the trade volume in the first fourmonths is running at an annual rate of $66 billion, and the Indiantrade gap is narrowing to about $20 billion.Delhi and Beijing agree that this tradeimbalance is "unsustainable." Solutions are sought in greater Chinesedirect investments in India, exports of India's services (mainly tourism) and amore liberal access of Indian pharmaceutical companies to China's market.In the course of Fortaleza summit, Mr.Xi suggested infrastructure investments in modernizing India's railroads androads. Chinese companies are already working on industrial parks in severallocations.Interestingly, a number of Indian stateshave been actively promoting their building sites and conditions to Chineseinvestors. That is a huge change compared with often indifferent or evenhostile attitude of Indian local authorities toward foreign direct investmentsin the past. This could be an early sign of Mr. Modi's hands-on managementstyle. He was the chief minister of the state of Gujarat for 12 years. Duringthat time, Gujarat's economy grew at an average annual rate of about 10percent, partly because it actively and successfully courted directinvestments.

印度自1947年独立以来,对于两国间最大的绊脚石——2520英里(4056公里)的边境,一直在艰难地寻找一个双方都能接受的解决方案。技术性的讨论已持续了几十年,而且还在继续。与以往不同的是,现在的两国领导人誓言要和平解决。更主要的是,也许,这份誓言是想拒绝让边境问题干扰(双方)紧密的政经关系。展现出双方的信任,有助于在领土难题上作出让步。

贸易不平衡是另一个严重问题。去年双边贸易额达到654.7亿美元,印度的贸易赤字达314.2亿美元。今年还可能是这样。据中国海关数据统计,以年利率计算,头四个月贸易额为660亿美元,印度贸易差额缩小至约200亿美元。德里和北京均认为这种贸易失衡是“不可持续的”。解决方案只能通过中国直接大力投资印度,出口印度服务业(主要是旅游),让印度制药公司更自由的进入中国市场。在福塔莱萨峰会期间,习建议对印度的铁路公路投资,进行现代化基建改造。中国企业已经在几个地区的工业园展开工作。有趣的是,印度的一些州,一直积极向他们推介建设场地,并为中国投资者创造条件。相比印度当局在过去对外国的直接投资,时常流露出的冷漠甚至敌视的态度,这是一个巨大的改变。这可能是莫迪先生前期养成的事必躬亲的管理风格。他在古吉拉特邦当了12年首席部长。在这期间,古吉拉特邦经济年均增长率达到10%,部分是因为它主动并成功地吸引直接投资。

Stabilizing the economy 稳定经济

India has also some work to do tobalance the economy. The projected central government's budget deficit of 4.1percent of gross domestic product (GDP) for the current fiscal year willprobably lead to some decline of the consolidated public sectordeficit, which averaged 7.3 percent of GDP over the last three years. Thatwould leave more domestic savings to finance productive investments; it wouldalso decrease India's dependence on foreign fund inflows to support currentconsumption and business capital outlays.Inflation at 7.3 percent in June is asignificant progress compared to 10 percent a year earlier, but it is still toohigh for a stable and strengthening output the country needs to provide jobsfor an estimated one million people entering labor markets each month.A stable exchange rate and realshort-term interest rates of 1.3 percent suggest a roughlyneutral monetary policy. As things now stand, there is no need foradditional credit tightening to fight inflation, because a substantial part ofinflation pressures stems from poor infrastructure (apparently one-third offood supplies are spoiled before they reach the market) and weather-relatedproblems. The rainfall has improved in recent weeks, and a normal monsoon seasonis expected next month. That should help the farm output and keep the foodprices down.

为了平衡经济,印度还要有很多工作要去做。预计中央政府财政赤字占到本年度GDP的4.1%,这将导致一些综合公共部门开支下降,这些部门在过去的三年里赤字平均占GDP的7.3%。可以让节省下来的国内资金投入到生产性投资上;它还能减少印度对外国资金流的依赖,维持当前的消耗和企业资本的支出。

六月通胀为7.3%,较比去年同期的10%有着显著的的进步,但它还是太高,为了稳固产出,国家需要为每月进入劳动力市场的近百万人提供工作。一个稳定的汇率和实实在在的1.3%短期利率才能大体实现中性货币政策。

现在看来,不需要额外的信贷紧缩来对抗通胀,因为通胀压力的很大一部分来自于糟糕的基础设施(很明显,1/3的食品在运进市场前就坏掉了)和天气相关的问题。最近几周降雨在逐渐减小,预计到下个月,将恢复正常季风气候。届时,天气会有助于(提高)农产品的产量和保持粮食价格稳定。

nvestment thoughts 谨慎投资

Since the beginning of the year, India'sequity price gains (23.4 percent) are by far the highest in Asia-Pacific andare among the highest in the world.There is no doubt some "Modieffect" there. Investors correctly see a hopeful beginning of a newadministration determined to tackle the huge developmental challenges thatcould unlock India's enormous growth potential.Partnership with China can beinstrumental in this task. In particular, Chinese infrastructure investmentscould raise India's economic efficiency and help accelerate the country'sgrowth while relieving upward supply side pressures on costs and prices.Will that happen? I believe chances arebetter than even that it could. The key reason is that the twocountries seem to have decided to abandon old suspicions and prejudices, andthat they realize that their economic and political interests are now more intune than at any time in recent history.

自今年年初以来,印度的股票价格收益(23.4%)是迄今为止亚太地区最高的,在世界上也是最高的。毫无疑问,是某些“莫迪效应“在起作用。投资者确实看到新政府为解决巨大发展挑战所展现的决心,这将释放出印度巨大的发展潜力。与中国结成伙伴关系,对这项任务将有所助益。特别是,中国的基建投资可以提高印度的经济效率,有助于加快国力增长,同时还能缓解供应成本(所承担的)压力和代价。

这一切会实现吗?我相信机遇远优于它所带来的风险。关键是,这两个国家似乎已经决定摒弃过去所持有的怀疑和偏见,而且他们还认识到,他们(之间的)经济与政治利益所产生的共鸣,远比近代历史上任何时期都强烈。

——正文结束,评论…目前就三条——

timur an hour agoI thought Kerry and Hagel went to India,trying to get India on US side against China?0

我认为克里和黑格尔去印度,是想让印度站在美国一边和中国对着干呢?

stardave2020 5 hours agoBUT BUT BUT BUT BUT... how cant his be?According to the "Free" media China and India are eternal enemies!!!!China is a repressive hell hole while India is a democratic nation full ofgoodness, who's only action is to join with the super duper democratic USA tocounter the evil Chinese!!!!!This is article written by a commie Chinese50 cent plant?1

但…但…但是…他怎么能这么做?据“自由”的媒体说,中国和印度是永远的敌人!!!中国是一个专制的肮脏的无底洞,而印度是一个民主的充满善意的国家,他唯一应该做的是加入超级民主美国去对抗邪恶的中国!!!!!这篇文章是一个共党五毛写的么?

Nathan Pham stardave2020 4 hours agoI think the Chinese have realized thatco-existing peacefully is better than destroying the environment, I think theywill stop their imperialist ambitions for now. But it is unpredictable whattheir new leader will do. You can't really trust anyone with too much powerreally.

我认为中国已经意识到和平共处比破坏环境要好得多,我想现在他们会终止他们帝国主义野心的。但他们的新领导人想做什么是不可预测的。你不能相信任何手握实权的人。

[ 转自铁血社区 http://bbs.tiexue.net/ ]

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我们中国不能拖三哥的后腿,不能阻止三哥强健有力的发展步伐。以印度人民的聪明智慧也不会愿意跟中国实打实的绑定在一起!他们永远不会忘记1962。

就算是最简单的经济行为,哪怕你买他一个苹果他也会告诉你:苹果1元1个,另外阿鲁纳恰尔邦是印度的领土。你买他一个鸡蛋他会告诉你:鸡蛋1元2个,我们印度是最大的民主国家。

7楼焚帛

看完标题,我只想说:


不怕神一样的对手,只怕猪一样队友!

中印一定都不互补,梦幻个屁,都少资源,人口多,印度消费有不行,中国制造又太强大。中国和俄罗斯才互补,一个能源丰富人口少,一个人口众多能源少!

14楼mpf2320

三哥最是世界上最牛逼的国家,不赘述了,中国自愧不如。请三哥好好保持强奸,皿煮,种姓制度等,拉屎用手,武器靠买优良传统10000年不要动摇。

国外的人想当总统,首先要说中国的不是,谁说的越狠谁就能当上,当上以后还要不停的说,还要不停的跟中国接触,接触的方面越广,位置坐的越久.这是国外总统选举的第一准则.

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