[原创][ 阿拉伯 半岛电视台 ] 中韩好兄弟?

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导读:本文难点较多请多指教。原文链接: ... 78143517775503.html [b][size=18] Following Japan's move towards greater militarisation, China and South Korea edge closer. 随着日本推动军事扩大化,中韩之间愈走愈近。 Last updated: 13 Jul 2014 06:18

本文难点较多请多指教。原文链接:http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth ... 78143517775503.html

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Are China and S Korea the region's newest best buddies?

中韩成了该地区最亲近的好兄妹?


Following Japan's move towards greater militarisation, China and South Korea edge closer.

随着日本推动军事扩大化,中韩之间愈走愈近。

Last updated: 13 Jul 2014 06:18铁血网提醒您:点击查看大图

作者:Alex Jensen 亚历克斯延森

Alex Jensen is a Seoul-based broadcast journalist covering both domestic and foreign affairs. He currently hosts a breakfast current affairs show for South Korea's tbs eFM and freelances for several international broadcasters and news outlets.

亚历克斯延森是驻汉城记者负责报道韩国国内外事务。现在他为韩国TBS EFM的一个早间时事节目做主持,同时他还是几家国际广播公司和新闻媒体特约记者

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apan's moves to expand its military roleabroad have not proved popular with its neighbours [Reuters]

日本扩大海外军事活动的行为,受到邻国民众反对[路透社]

VisitingChinese President Xi Jinping decided to offer a history lesson in Japan's"barbarous wars of aggression" against his country and South Koreaduring a speech at Seoul National University on July 4, though his intendedaudience was clearly Tokyo's government. The wounds suffered by South Korea andChina at the hands of Japanese 20th century imperialism have never reallyhealed.Tokyo'smove last July to widen its military capabilities has seemingly sealed a bondmade of what Xi described in terms of "sweat and blood". But if Xi'sresponse was as much about the past as a shared future with South Korea, doesit actually signal a significant shift for Northeast Asia going forwards?Thereality of this region's ties depends on which lens one views them through. Inhis speech, Xi was selective. For example, as well as reviewing Japan'sexpansion in the last century, he chose to highlight Korea and China's mutualsupport against Japanese aggression 400 years ago - rather than focus on hisnation's key role during the Korean War on the side of the North.

7月4日,到访韩国的中国国家主席习在国立汉城大学,为明确历史教训,以日本对中韩“野蛮的侵略战争”为题做了一次演讲。显然,他演讲的对象意在东京政府。中韩在20世纪日本帝国掌中所受到的伤痛至今仍未愈合。东京在去年7月推进军事能力扩大化貌似应了习据“汗水与鲜血”中所描述的那样——作茧自缠,习的反应如果是以相似的过去与韩国共赴未来,那么,它是否是东北亚发展趋势产生重大转变的明确信号?地区现实关系取决于是否能审时度势,目光长远。这次演讲,习做了精心选择。例如,即回顾了上世纪日本的扩张,又选择强调曾在400年前中韩两国联手抵抗过日本的侵略——却没提朝鲜战争期间中国对北方一侧所起的决定性影响。

Vitalpartner 患难伙伴

Beijingremains a vital military and economic partner for North Korea, a country stilltechnically at war with the South as their 1950-53 conflict closed with anarmistice agreement rather than a peace treaty. South Korea may be able toboast that Xi broke a Chinese presidential tradition stretching back more thantwo decades by visiting Seoul for a summit with South Korean President ParkGeun-hye before heading to Pyongyang to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-un,but China is still bound by an alliance to protect the North.Asidefrom this three-nation entanglement, what if China's ongoing territorialdispute with Japan was to boil over into a physical conflict? Tokyo'sestablished ally, the United States, would be there to back Japan, but Seoul isalso tied militarily to the US - with around 30,000 American boots on theground in the South.Howabout if Japan's conflict was instead with North Korea? South Korea and Japan'sarmed forces would be on the same side, but then again, that would be nothingnew for their defence chiefs.Inother words, all this talk of South Korea and China being supportive of oneanother is limited to other fields, like the economy and culture - thanks tobeing key trade and tourism partners; with China topping both lists as far asSouth Korea is concerned. Those sides of their relationship are notinsignificant, but they were already progressing nicely before this latestcontroversy involving Japan.

对于朝鲜,北京仍是一个重要的军事和经济伙伴,1950-1953年冲突(朝鲜战争)结束后,朝鲜与韩国签订的是停战协议而不是一个和平协议,他们之间理论上仍属于内战状态。韩国或许可以自夸,因为,习打破了中国国家主席将近20年的一贯传统,既,越过平壤,先对汉城进行了访问,并与韩国总统朴槿惠举行高层会议。虽然中国仍受同盟条约限制对朝鲜提供保护。这三个国家间的恩怨暂先放到一旁,可中国与日本持续的领土争端若激化成事实冲突,该怎么办?东京的盟友,美国能会为日本而回归,虽然汉城和美国也有同样的军事关系——大约三千名美军部队驻扎在韩国。若换成日本与朝鲜产生冲突又当如何?韩日之间或许能站到一起,但话说回来,有可能选不出他们的防务首脑。也就是说,中韩间所说的互帮互助在某些领域是有局限的,就像经济和文化——关键是贸易活动和旅游合作在起作用;这两方面对韩国而言,对所形成的关系意义不大,但面对近期涉及到的日本问题,他们(之间的关系)越走越近。

Japanrevisits constitution 重审日本宪法

Noneof that though, makes Japan's recent behaviour unworthy of a further look.Fears of an end to Japanese pacifism are justified in that Tokyo'sreinterpretation of Article 9 in its post-World War II constitution allows thecountry to break a mould that has defined Japanese foreign policy since 1947.The country can now feel emboldened when joining its neighbours in the kind ofposturing that has prevailed in the apparent absence of the will to go to war.TheAbe administration has also consistently stirred anger among Japan's neighbourswithdemonstrations of insensitivity to the past. Tokyo's attitudetowards its wartime use of sex slaves, for example, has provoked widespread angerin South Korea and China. Then there was Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe'svisit at the end of last December to the Yasukuni war shrine, which is mostinfamous for honouring war criminals - and one should not forget the fiercereaction to that impromptu stopover by a certain Justin Bieber earlier thisyear.Yetthere are limitations to what the Abe administration can actually achieve withits defence shift. The US might openly support Tokyo's new position, but thatis not the same as backing acts of aggression. Japan would only be able tooffer military assistance to allies under attack - no wonder the US is happy tohave an extra threat on its side. While the sight of a Japanese militarygaining confidence understandably touches already open wounds among SouthKoreans and Chinese who can, in some cases, still remember the suffering thesenations endured, realistically, Tokyo is toothless without US approval.

无话可说,日本最近的举动毫无远见。担心日本结束和平主义是有道理的,自1947年以来,日本为了挣脱外交政策上的束缚,东京对二战后宪法第九条重新做了解读。以前和邻居在一起时那种不敢言战的情形,现在好像觉得有了底气。安培政府总是利用对历史的蔑视不断地刺激他的邻居。例如,东京对待战争期间使用慰安妇的态度,引起韩中两国广泛的愤怒。之后安培首相在去年12月底还拜访了靖国神社,这里有供奉着臭名昭著的战犯——别忘了还有一个人,今年初,贾斯汀比伯在那里的即兴停留引起了激烈反映。然而,实际上,已没有什么能阻止安培政府实现他的防务转变了。美国可能会公开支持日本的新地位,但不是说他对侵略行为同样支持。日本只能在盟友受到攻击时提供军事上的帮助——难怪美国毫不担心外部出现的威胁。而日本所获得的军事自信可理解为撕开了中韩两国本就存在的伤口,在某些情况下,这些国家仍记得所忍受的苦痛,但现实情况是,没有美国的同意,东京呲不起獠牙。

False dawn 幻象

ChineseForeign Minister Wang Yi told reporters on July 4 that "a new milestonefor the future development of bilateral relations" had been set. Itfollowed a script that had begun to be written on July 1 with the Abeadministration's success in gaining approval to bolster Japan's military might.North Korea even provided some fanfare with the latest of its rocket tests aday later - a possible sign of disapproval concerning Xi's trip to South Korea.In afurther twist, the North also continued to enjoy Japanesefavour as Tokyo lifted sanctions in return for an investigation into the fateof abductees plucked by Pyongyang decades ago. TheChinese president's visit to the South at the tail-end of the week offered anopportunity to portray all these events as comingto a head - a chance to suggest the birth of a newdiplomatic framework.Thatconclusion, however, has its limitations. Last week was a naked exhibition ofindividual ambitions, but none of those developments change the fundamentalties holding the main players back from making anymeaningful steps forward.Evenviewed from the narrow perspective of the two Koreas and China, Seoul's growingfriendship with Beijing loses its significance in the presence ofthe Chinese-North Korean bond - which emboldens Pyongyang in the face of UnitedNations sanctions.Fewwould be surprised if the North were to conduct another nuclear test to add toits third-ever last year. Even fewer would express shock ifBeijing were to support North Korea regardless of punishments imposed by the UNSecurity Council. That is not to even mention human rights issues, such asChina's refusal to allow North Korean defectors to move onwards to the South.NorthKorea repeatedly threatens Xi's "blood and sweat" partner South Koreawith nuclear warfare. It is in this obvious contradiction that we realise aseismic shift in regional relations is impossible without a unified KoreanPeninsula. In the long run, a stronger relationship between Seoul and Beijingcannot hurt the goal of reunification, but a great deal ofuntangling is required before reaching that stage. In the meantime, Pyongyangis fast becoming too dangerous even for China to control.Displaysof disenchantment with Tokyo do not herald the start of a new Northeast Asianorder. Instead, disorder is a more accurate description of relations in thisregion, where peace is for now maintained by the joint realisation that no onestands to gain anything from an armed conflict.

中国外交部长王毅在七月四日告诉记者,“双边关系”已成为未来发展的一个新的里程碑。这份稿子于7月1开始起草,也就是安倍政府成功赢取加强日本军事力量之时。甚至是在朝鲜高调测试新型火箭的后一天——这或许是对习访问韩国发出的反对信号。朝鲜也同样欣赏东京对其解除制裁的支持,作为回报,平壤对十几年前的解救的被绑架者的结局进行调查。中国国家主席在本周末访问韩国时提出,将为事态朝着有利的方向发展提供条件——一个暗示实现新的外交框架的机会。这一论断,无论怎样,都有着它的局限性。上周是个人理想毫无保留的展示。但事态发展没出现变化,基础关系的走向仍掌握在背后制造某种意图的庄家手中。即使以苛刻的角度来看朝韩和中国,汉城与北京之间发展的友谊,在面对中朝盟约时失去了它应有的意义——这促使平壤面对联合国的制裁。如果朝鲜接着去年第三次核试验再次进行核试验,没人会感到意外。如果北京不顾联合国安理会的处罚继续支持朝鲜,几乎没人会感到震惊。而且这还是在没提及人权问题的情况下,例如中国拒绝让北朝鲜难民南逃。朝鲜再而三用核战争要挟习的“血汗”伙伴-韩国。正是在这种明显的矛盾,让我们意识到,区域关系若想发生翻天覆地的转变,除非有一个统一的朝鲜,否则不可能。从长远来看,强化汉城和北京之间的友谊不会对统一造成伤害,但在达到这一阶段前,需要大量的工作要去做。在这期间,即使中国进行控制,平壤很也会快变得比较危险。东京显露出的觉醒并不预示着一个新的东北亚秩序的开始。相反,失调是对该地区关系最为准确的描述,那里的和平是通过相互领会来维持的,没有人想利用武装冲突去获得什么。

Alex Jensen is a Seoul-based broadcastjournalist covering both domestic and foreign affairs. He currently hosts abreakfast current affairs show for South Korea's tbs eFM and freelances forseveral international broadcasters and news outlets. The views expressed inthis article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera'seditorial policy. 作者:亚历克斯延森

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bystander Unfolding Universe 21 hours agoIt's likelybecause the US doesn't want to be forced to come to Japan's defense in material terms,in the event of a shooting war between China and Japan. To the extent thatJapan can handle such an encounter with its own defense forces, it will allowthe US to stand back from the conflict.Itmakes one wonder ifChina is missing the obvious point that the agreement reached atthe end of WWII *disarmed* Japan in exchange for the US providing defense forit. China is effectively forcing an end to this arrangement -- it veryobviously doesn't want the US to play the defense role. But surely they realizethat if one half of the agreement goes away (US is responsible for Japan'sdefense) then the other half must also go away (Japan is disarmed).5 Reply匠栀愀爀攀

这可能是因为美国不想在中日之间发生热战时被迫在物质层面去保护日本。在某种程度上,日本可以用自己的防卫力量应付这样的难题,这会让美国远离冲突。假如中国不理会二战结后的协议,*解除 *日本以换取为美国提供防御,这会很让人意外的。中国(的做法)实际上是强行终止了这个协议——很显然不想让美国发挥后防作用。但是可以肯定的是他们意识到,如果部分协议失效(美国负责日本防卫)另一部分也没用了(解除日本)。

UnfoldingUniverse bystander 21 hours agoThe problem is, Idon 't think China have any intention to invade, or occupy Japan. The endresult is an increasingly militarized East Asia that will counter to UShegemony.Over time, an armrace will continue forever into the future for all Asia countries, and what youhave is a region of the world that will be powerful than theWest. This is counter to US interest.It is much morerational if US joins with China in something like a G2, but China don 't wantthat.3 Reply匠栀愀爀攀 Show 2 new replies

问题在于,我不认为中国有任何想入侵或占领日本的意图。但最终的结果可能是一个愈来愈军事化的东亚,会与美国霸权产生对立。随着时间的推移,军备竞赛以后将一直扩散到所有亚洲国家,并且你所拥有的世界上的某个地区,将会比西方还强大。这有违于美国的意愿。如果中美结合成某个类似G2组织,那就非常合理,但中国不那样想。

bystander Unfolding Universe 14 hours agoI haven't heardanyone in the US express the idea that Japan arming itself is "counter toUS hegemony". In reality, "US hegemony" is much more limitedthan is widely perceived (IMO). The US has a very great capacityinthe event of a full-blown shooting war. But it has very (very)limited capacity in the event of small-scale stuff, which is why the Chineseare able to tweak their neighbors while the US watches and wonders what it mightbe able to do. 2 删攀瀀氀礀匠栀愀爀攀

我从未听过有人在美国表示,日本武装自身就是为了“反对美国霸权” 的想法。事实上,“美国霸权”远比人们所认为的还要有限。美国在全面热战中展现出非凡的能力。但它在非常(非常)小的事上面不知所措(能力有限),这就是为什么中国能够摆弄他们的邻居,而美国却呆在一旁观察并思考她该怎么去做的原因。

ararar3 Unfolding Universe 20 hours agothey are dividedso it doesn't matter.China wants thesouthern islands, not invade japan. Militarization is the obvious consequences. Reply匠栀愀爀攀

他们有分歧,没关系。中国意在南海里的岛,不是日本。最明显的后果就是(日本)军事化。

UnfoldingUniverse ararar3 20 hours agoMy point was Chinahave no intention to invade Japan. Thus, an increasing powerful Japan, andAsian alliance are not just going to hedge China, but it is going to weakenAmerican power in Asia. Similarly, a continuously powerful East Asia + China wouldnot going be more powerful,but it would wonder why an non-Asia country place itself in their group.At the end, therise of China increase the power of Asia by collective increasing Asia 'smilitary budge, and military industrial complex. Is this the objective of theWest?3 Reply匠栀愀爀攀


我的观点是,中国无意侵略日本。此时,一个不断强大的日本,(这个)亚洲盟友不仅防备中国,还在削弱美国在亚洲的力量。同样,一个日益强大的东亚加上中国会不会被强大,(无论怎样)他们一定会感到纳闷,为什么一个非亚国家非要参合进来。最后,通过集体抬升亚洲军事预算和军工产业,提高了中国在亚洲的实力。这是西方的目的?

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将日本引向军事扩张道路的新日本右翼分子,是中韩两国人民共同的敌人!

“中美合作”已经和鬼见面去了,剩下来的只有“中美对抗”和“俩个新型大国关系”留下来,看美国如何选择吧!!因为我们的骨头已经硬到不惧怕任何歹毒的鞭子了。

中华儿女不会忘记日本带给国家的灾难的。

中韩是父子关系,只是孩子有段时间不太懂事,卖父投敌,现在清醒还来得及。

棒子不可能是我们的兄弟,,只是现在为了共同的利益而携手。

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