[原创][ 美国 国家利益 ] 拯救南海困局

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导读:原文链接: [align=center] [/align] [b][size=22] Stewart Taggart June 30, 2014 [/align] [i] A second track—China’s favored track—should also be pursued: bilateral

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——正文开始——

A Plan to Save the South China Sea from Disaster

拯救南海困局计划

Stewart Taggart June 30, 2014

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Editor's Note: The image above depicts possible jointdevelopment areas in the South China Sea that could be created to which an open-access,commoncarrier energy infrastructure could be added.[i]Such joint development and collective infrastructurecould reduce or solve territorial tensions.[/i]

编者按:上图描述了南海中可合理共同开发的海域,创建一个可开放获取,共同营运的基础能源设施。利用联合开发和设施共享可以减少或解决领土争端。

Arbitration,joint development, coordinated investment, sharedinfrastructure. The plan above could offer an “everybody wins,” face-saving solution to theincreasingly dicey situation in the South China Sea. None of the points arenovel. All are on the table or represent logical extensionsto existing initiatives.

仲裁,联合开发,共同投资,设施共享。以上所述提供了一个可能“人人都是赢家“的方案,体面地解决了日益严峻的南海形势。别无他法。所有问题都摆在台面上积极解决。

Arbitration 仲裁

ThePhilippines has appealed to the Permanent Court of Arbitration established underthe United Nations Conference on the Law of the Sea overChina’s claim to waters near the Philippines. Vietnam is likely to follow suit. This, after China placed a deep-sea oilexploration rig—accompanied by a protective flotilla—in waters claimed by Vietnam. China has refused to respond tothe Philippines’ UNCLOS appeal, claiming thearbitration court lacks jurisdiction. China’s certainto take the same stance with Vietnam.While the jurisdictionof UNCLOS in the particulars of the Philippine-Chinese,Vietnam-Chinese cases is arguable, international arbitration still lookslike the best bet ona menu of second-bests.Given this, the Philippines and Vietnam should continue to multilaterizethe South China Sea issue. This draws uncomfortable attentionto China, which could encourage China to moderate her unilateral assertiveness pendingbetter solutions.

菲律宾根据联合海洋法公约,呼吁国际仲裁法院对中国声索的菲律宾附近海域进行仲裁。越南也可能随后跟进,至此,伴随着小型船队的中国深海石油钻井平台,在部署到越南声称海域后。中国拒绝回应菲律宾在联合国海洋法公约的诉讼,宣称仲裁法院无权管辖。中国毫无疑问也会对越南采取相同立场。然而,菲中之间的问题属于联合国海洋法管辖范围,越中问题另当别论,国际法院对该诉讼的处理还是倾向调解。鉴于此,菲律宾和越南将继续纠缠中国南海问题,刺激中国,促使中国保持自律直到有更好的解决方案出现。

Joint Development Areas 联合开发

A second track—China’s favored track—should also be pursued: bilateral negotiation. China, Vietnam andthe Philippines all have voiced qualified support for Joint Development Areas(JDAs) in the South China Sea. JDAstherefore, could provide themost promising medium-term avenue for avoiding escalating incidents that couldlead to war. JDAshave pedigree. They’ve been around for decades. A number existall around the world, including in the South China Sea. JDAs enablecountries to indefinitely postpone resolution of disputing offshore claimswhile they jointly develop the oil and gas resources within them. Severaldisputed Chinese-Vietnam, Chinese-Philippine offshore areaslook suitable for JDAs. These could lead to others. If JDAswere established (a big if), multilateralinvestment could follow.

贯彻受中国青睐的双轨(外交),既,双边协商。中国,越南和菲律宾都曾表示有条件支持联合开发(jdas)南海。因此,联合开发是避免事态升级导致战争的最有希望的折中选择。联合开发已经有几十年历史渊源。世界各地均有存在,包括南海。联合开发能使海洋争议主张长时间搁置,期间,可彼此共同开发油气资源。中越、中菲之间的争议海域看起来比较适合搞联合开发。这样就会起到带头作用。如果联合开发成功(很可能),多方投资就会跟进。

Coordinated Investment 共同投资

China is a majorinvestor in Southeast Asia, particularly ininfrastructure. China Southern Power Grid has builtcross-border electricity grid interconnections with Vietnam. State Grid ofChina is several years into a 25-year contract to operate and upgrade thePhilippine electricity grid.Therefore, thisemergingsituation of “coop-frontation”—deepening economic ties on the one hand between thePhilippines, Vietnam and China and worsening territorialtension on the other—creates awkwardness allaround.

中国是东南亚主要投资方,尤其是在基础设施建设方面。(其中)中国南方电网已与越南实现跨网互连。中国国家电力得到菲律宾电网25年经营改造权已好几年。然而,这个 “搁置争议”事实现状,一方面深化了中、菲、越之间的经济合作,另一方面却加剧领土紧张局势——造成邻里不和。

Shared Infrastructure 设施共享

As China’s internal infrastructure needs wind down, China’s state champion energy infrastructure companies (like State Grid,China Southern Power Grid and China National Offshore Oil Company—CNOOC) face atrophy, shrinkage and decline. They need new projects.That’s why China is looking abroad. Viewedthrough this domestic Chinese industrial policy prism, China Southern PowerGrid’s Vietnam interconnections, State Grid’s investments in the Philippines (and Australia) and CNOOC’s aggressive recent placement of an oil and gas exploration rig off Vietnam make abit more sense. So does China’s proposal to providemajority capital for a $50+ billion AsianInfrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).If JDAs wereestablished in the South China Sea between China, Vietnam and the Philippines,China’sproposed AIIB could provide the infrastructure funding todevelop the South China Sea’s offshore energy resourcesand bring them to market.With JDAs,China gets a regional “sociallicense” for her domesticinfrastructure state champions to build new projects. Vietnam, the Philippines and (potentially later) other Southeast Asian nations,meanwhile, get new infrastructure they can’t afford tobuild on their own.But this happy symbiosis,however, begs the question: who controls the infrastructure once it’s built? But this may be less of a problem than itappears.China, like Europe,is “unbundling” its domesticenergy markets to separate ownership of energy generation assets and energytransmission infrastructure. The aim is to enhance energy marketcompetition, encourage new energy market entrants and increase energy supplysecurity. Applying this plan to the South China Sea, energytransmission infrastructure built to serve JDAs could be built and operated onan “open-access, common-carrier” model. This would avoid the problem of one party (read China)exploiting control of the infrastructure to squeeze the neighbors.A rough draft for such aninfrastructure already exists in the Association of SoutheastAsian Nations’ (ASEAN)proposed Trans-ASEAN Gas Pipeline (TAGP) and Trans-ASEANElectricity Grid (TAEG). Both are aimed at deepeningand broadening ASEAN’s energy markets toincrease supply security, and lower prices.In their most extensive forms,both the TAGP and TAEG looktailor made for providing access to new oil and gas suppliesfrom the South China Sea developed through JDAs.

由于中国国内基础设施建设需求逐步减少,中国国有顶级能源基建企业(如国家电网,中国南方电网,中国海洋石油总公司——中海油)面临萎缩、缩减和下降。他们需要新的增长点(项目)。这就是为什么中国要望向海外的原因。纵观中国国内产业政策,折射出,中国南方电网与越南互联,投资菲律宾国家电网(还有澳大利亚),中海油近期主动在越南部署油气钻井平台更验证了这种思维。因此,中国提议以主要注资方身份向亚洲基础设施投资银行注资5百多亿美元。如果中越菲之间在南海确立联合开发,中国所倡导的亚洲基础建设银行就能向开发南海能源资源提供所需基建资金,并把它们带入市场。联合开发如能确立,中国为国内基建集团发展新项目得到该区域的“社会许可”。同时越南,菲律宾和其他东南亚国家(或许在以后),得到它们所渴求的新的基础设施。但是这种互惠,无论怎样,引发出了一个问题:设施一旦建成,由谁来管理?…也许这算不上个问题。中国,和欧洲一样, “分拆”其国内能源市场,让发电和输电设施产权各自独立。其目的是提高能源市场竞争性,鼓励参与新能源市场,并增强能源供应安全。此方案如在南海落实,联合开发输电基建工程即可开工,并以“开放存取,共同营运“的模式进行管理。这将避免某一方(可理解为中国)利用控制基建设施挤兑邻里的问题。东盟已提出过类似跨东盟天然气管网(TAGP)和跨东盟电力网(TAEG)的建设草案。两者都旨在深化和扩大与东盟的能源市场,加强能源供应安全并降低价格。通过南海联合开发,无论是跨东盟天然气管网(TAGP)还是跨东盟电力网(TAEG)两者看起来都很适合消化开发出的新油气资源。

Pan-Asian Energy Infrastructure 泛亚能源设施

What emerges is a proto-China/Southeast Asia energy network. That, in turn, can provide a templatefor something similar to be built in the East China Sea connecting theenergy markets of China, Japan and South Korea, as well asa template for extending infrastructure southward to Indonesia andAustralia. The end result would be a Pan-Asian Energy Infrastructurestretching from Beijing to Brisbane, Seoul to Sydney.A Pan-Asian Energy Infrastructure—inits more extensive form—would be a multi-fuelnetwork of gas pipelines, high-capacity power lines and fiber optics cables.These would create the world’s largest common energymarket along with the information to trade it. Builtcorrectly, new Asianpipelines could carry natural gas supplies over the short-term, and futurefuels like hydrogen, bio-energy and even waste carbon over the long term.Existing pipelines already do this in the US, Canada and Europe. Soit isn’t fanciful. It’s anextension of current trends.

呈现出的是一个中国-东南亚能源网原型,因此,同理,可以在中国东海建立类似的机制贯通中日韩能源市场,还可以进一步效仿此法,向南扩展,连接印尼和澳大利亚。最终形成一个从北京到布里斯班,汉城,悉尼泛亚能源网。泛亚能源设施的典型特征,是一个由燃气管道、高压电线路和光缆组合成的复合燃料网。这将是有史以来,伴随着信息交易,世界上最大的传统能源市场。亚洲新管网设施一旦建成,近期可以提供天然气,将来可以提供像氢、生物能源,远期甚至可以处理废炭。现有的管道网已在美国,加拿大和欧洲实现。所以这不稀奇。这是当前的发展趋势。

A Pan-Asian Energy Infrastructure of powerlines and gas pipelines, and fiber optics creates the conditions for “cloud energy.” Cloud energy—like cloud computing—involves sourcing marginal supply from anywhere on an interconnected network with dispatch arbitratedby distance, congestion, availability and, in the case of cloud energy, carbonpricing. In short, it represents africtionless “perfect market”—abig one.The South China Sea represents a classiccase of crisis leading to op portunity. Upcoming multilateral meetings offera pathway for moving the ideas forward. InOctober, the United Nations’ Green Climate Summit meets in New York. It will focus on fundingclean energy projects in the developing world. In November, China hosts theAsia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) group. A week later, Australia hoststhe Group of 20 (G20). Both China and Australia plan to push infrastructure andinvestment agendas. In December 2015—18 months from now—the UnitedNations Framework Convention on Climate Change meets in Paris. It’s tasked with reaching binding global agreement on post-2020emissions cuts. Infrastructure could be the key to solving the challenges abovesimultaneously. These include climate change,territorial tensions, accommodating the rise of China, encouraging energymarket innovation and developing low-emission energy sources. Viewedthis way, the growing crisis in the South China Sea may really be anopportunity. Handled correctly, it couldrepresent a turning point in history.

泛亚能源的电力、燃气和光缆网的建设为“云能源“创造了条件。”云能源“和”云计算“一样,基于互联网通过距离,拥塞度以及可用性分摊研判,可在任意地点以边际供价进行采购,在”云能源”下进行碳(能源)定价.总之,这是个庞大的和谐的“完美市场”。南海应该化危机为机遇,在即将到来的多边会议对该思维的转变提供了一个途径。10月,即将在纽约召开的联合国绿色气候峰会上,讨论重点将放在投资发展中国家清洁能源项目上。十一月,中国将主办亚太经合会议(APEC)。一周后,在澳大利亚举办的20国集团峰会(G20)上,中国和澳大利亚计划将共同推动基建投资计划。距2015年12月联合国气候变化框架公约会议,还有18个月在巴黎召开的。会议的任务是关于‘后2020年减排’达成具有约束力的全球性协定。基础建设将成为解决上述议题的核心,包括气候变化,领土争端,适应中国的崛起,鼓励能源市场的创新和发展低排放能源。这样看来,日益严重的南海危机,还真可能的是一个机会。如处置得当,它将有望成为一个历史性的转折点。

Stewart Taggart is principalof Grenatec, a research organization studying the viability of a Pan-AsianEnergy Infrastructure of high-capacity power lines, natural gas pipelines andfiber optic cables stretching from Australia to China, Japan and South Korea. 作者:斯图尔特塔加特

——正文结束——

[ 转自铁血社区 http://bbs.tiexue.net/ ]

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10楼dukean

把米国的土地拿来共同开发好不好,米国,你是正义的使者,你是世上的榜样,你是人民的希望!因为印度和非洲每年有很多人饿死,米国你把自己那一半没用的耕地让给印度和非洲人民来种植好不好,共同开发资源共享,请给我们中国做个榜样!看好你哦!

12楼caisun

美国的拉斯维加斯,关岛,夏威夷大家一起来分享开发。是共赢的。美国大叔你到是贡献出来嘛。

回复:[原创][ 美国 国家利益 ] 拯救南海困局现在不是以前了 美国的爪子现在伸太长了容易挨剁!

16楼zbx1011

“主权在我,搁置争议,共同开发”是 没脑子的人说的瞎话。


我不知道怎么就有人信了。‘主权在我’那就没争议了,没争议 还搁置什么?‘搁置争议’就是有争议,有争议就是别人不认你的主权。这三句话放一起就等于脑袋进水。

应该是‘主权在我,停止争议,共同开发’。就是给他们的甜头。

南海是中国领海,中国讲了算,美狗发狂犬病了瞎叫唤,拿美国本土来全球仲裁共同开发倒是可以考虑

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