[路透社]日本机械订单暴跌让人对安倍经济学产生怀疑

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[日期]2014年2月12日龙腾网

work at a construction site in Tokyo February 12, 2014.CREDIT: REUTERS/YUYA SHINO2014年2月12日,一个男人在东京的建筑工地上工作

(Reuters) - Japan's core machinery orders suffered a steep drop in December and companies expect more declines in the January-March quarter, a worrying sign for capital spending seen as key to cementing a recovery in the world's third-largest economy.(路透社)---日本的核心机械订单在12月急剧下滑,许多公司预测在1到3月将会下降更多,对这个世界第三大经济体来说,这一资本开支上令人担忧的信号,看起来将会成为(能否)巩固经济复苏的关键。

The 15.7 percent decline in orders, a leading indicator of capital expenditure, was much worse than a projected 4.1 percent decline and was the largest since comparable data available from 2005.15.7%的订单减少,作为资本支出的领先指标*,比原来预期的4.1%的下降幅度要糟糕的多,而这也是从2005年至今参照数据中最大的一次(下降)。

Companies surveyed by the Cabinet Office forecast that core orders, which is a highly volatile data series, will fall 2.9 percent in January-March, which would be the first drop in four quarters.一些公司经过内阁府的调查预计核心订单(这一数据波动较大)将会在1-3月件下降2.9%,这也将会是四季度来的首次下降

The data could fuel skepticism of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe reflationary policies, known as "Abenomics", which has combined a massive injection of fiscal and monetary expansionary to pull the economy out of a decades-long slump.这一数据可能会激发人们对首相安倍晋三所采取的复苏政策的怀疑,该政策被此前称为[安倍经济学],它试图通过结合大规模注入的财政和货币扩张来拉动经济走出长达数十年的衰退。

A central plan of Abenomics is to spur capital spending to create a virtuous cycle of job creation, higher wages and consumer spending.[安倍经济学]的中心计划是通过刺激资本支出来创造一个[创造就业—更高工资—消费者支出]的良性循环。

"Companies are turning cautions before the sales tax hike," said Yasuo Yamamoto, senior economist at Mizuho Research Institute.“在销售税增加前,公司都开始变得谨慎起来,”日本瑞穗研究所的高级经济学家 Yasuo Yamamoto如是说。

"Capex could contract in April-June as well. If capex doesn't recover in the second half of year, there will be expectations for the government and the BOJ to respond."“资本开支可能也将在第二季度收缩。如果它无法在下半年恢复,那么就会有期望要求政府和日本央行作出回应。”

The weak orders data raises doubts that a freeze in business investment is thawing, which would hurt efforts to conquer 15 years of persistent deflation and foster sustained growth..这一疲软的订单数据令人怀疑对企业投资的冻结如今正在融化,而这会伤害到日本对征服长达15年通货紧缩并促进持续发展的努力。

Capital spending has been anemic for years, with Japanese firms hesitant to boost investment on plants and equipment, because of a deep-rooted view that Japan would remain mired in deflation and sustained economic recovery is far from assured.由于日本企业在厂房设备投资上的犹豫不决,资本投资已经“贫血”多年。这(日企犹豫)是因为在他们根深蒂固的观念中,日本将继续陷于通货紧缩的泥沼中,而维持经济复苏还远远无法得到保证。

Capital spending has shown some tentative signs of recovery as companies increased output before a sales tax increase scheduled for April.一些公司赶在预定于四月颁布的销售税上升前增加产量,这使得资本支出方面出现了以些初步的复苏迹象

However, companies have been cautious about opening the taps further on spending despite BOJ data that shows corporate Japan sits on a cash pile of some 220 trillion yen.但是,尽管日本央行的数据显示日本企业目前拥有着220万亿日元的资金,日本公司仍然对进一步放开开支持谨慎态度。

Compared with a year earlier, core orders rose 6.7 percent in December, less than a 17.6 percent gain expected.与去年同期相比,核心订单在12月增加了6.7%,低于17.6%的预期。

The BOJ, which holds a regular policy review next week, has kept policy steady after embarking on an aggressive stimulus last April, pledging to double base money via aggressive asset purchases to spur inflation to 2 percent in roughly two years.日本央行将于下周举行一次定期政策回顾,他们在去年四月开始积极刺激(计划)后一直保持政策的稳定,而如今,他们承诺会通过积极的资产购入令基础货币翻番,在大概两年内将通货膨胀刺激至2%。

Gross domestic product data due on February 17 is likely to show the economy expanded 0.7 percent in October-December, or 2.8 percent annualized, with capital spending rising 1.9 percent to mark a third straight quarter of gains, according a Reuters poll of analysts.据路透社对分析师的调查,日本2月17日发布的国内生产总值数据可能会显示去年四季度经济增长为0.7%,全年可能为2.8%,而资本支出上涨1.9%,标志着连续第三个季度的收益。

(Reporting by Tetsushi Kajimoto; Editing by Shri Navaratnam)

相关:领先指标:领先指标是指相对于国民经济周期波动,在指标的时间上领先,例如某指标走上高峰或跌入低谷比国民经济周期早若干个月,那么就称这些指标为领先指标。这些指标对即将到来的年份里的经济情况可以提供预兆。

因为这是2/12的新闻,文中一些数据已公布:[日本内阁政府2月17日公布的速报值显示,2013年10~12月期日本的国内生产总值(GDP)实际同比增长1.0%,连续4个季度出现增长]

然后是一条评论:SanPa wrote:Caterpiller isn’t doing much better, and that has nothing to do with Abenomics. The global economy is in a steepening downturn … courtesy of the BRICS nations.Caterpiller(世界上最大的工程机械生产厂家之一)也没做的多好,这(日订单暴跌)和安倍经济学一点关系都没有。全球经济正处于衰退...托了金砖四国的福。


本文内容于 2014/2/23 14:22:02 被小编a52编辑

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虽然非常想能核平日本已雪这百年的国仇家恨,但限于当今世界的现实环境,不得不承认这种可能性其实微乎其微,本人认为最大的可能是,小日本在闹腾几年后,由于经济崩溃,最后不得不去老老实实的做二三流国家。

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