商飞这脸丢的 外媒称C919严重落伍无法取得适航证

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导读:Chances are rising that the Comac C919 willbe largely limited to the Chinese market, as the manufacturer works towardlocal airworthiness certification while seeing no sure path to the desired FAAendorsement of the type. 中国商飞C919将在很大程度上仅限于中国市场的可能性正在上

商飞这脸丢的 外媒称C919严重落伍无法取得适航证

Chances are rising that the Comac C919 willbe largely limited to the Chinese market, as the manufacturer works towardlocal airworthiness certification while seeing no sure path to the desired FAAendorsement of the type.

中国商飞C919将在很大程度上仅限于中国市场的可能性正在上升,因为作为致力于美国当地的适航认证的制造商,却看到没有得到美国联邦航空局对该型号型的认可的确定途径。

The Chinese market is big, so sales ofperhaps 1,000 units remain plausible, in the opinion of program officials. Butthe 158-seat narrowbody's prospects for making much of an impact on the widermarket, perhaps never large, are diminishing.

在项目官员看来,中国的市场很大,因此或许1000架的销量依然是合理的。尽管该型客机造成了对更广阔的市场产生很大程度的影响,而这些市场也许绝对不会是夸大的,但158座的窄体客机的前景依然正在衰减。

The problem emerged in 2011 and is stillunresolved. Delays in Comac's earlier program, the ARJ21 regional jet, areholding up FAA recognition of the certification competence of the CivilAviation Administration of China (CAAC) (AW&ST Sept. 12, 2011, p. 24). Thatcasts doubt on the FAA's eventual acceptance of the CAAC's current work on C919and therefore the Chinese type certificate. Without Western airworthinessendorsement, the C919 cannot be sold in main commercial aircraft marketsoutside of China.

问题出现在2011年,而如今仍然没有得到解决。中国商飞的早期计划——ARJ21支线飞机的拖延,阻碍了美国联邦航空局对中国民航总局(CAAC)的认证权限的确认(《航空和空间技术周刊》2011年9月12日号,第24页)。这引起美国联邦航空局对中国民航总局目前关于C919的最终验收工作上的怀疑,也因此导致了对中国的型号认证的怀疑。如果没有西方的适航认证,C919就不能在中国以外的主要商业飞机市场上出售。

“As we see it, this is a highly complex situation,” says an executiveclosely involved in the C919 certification effort. “Because the FAA's positionis affected by the ARJ21, we currently have no way of resolving this problem.”For the moment, the C919 program can only work on obtaining CAAC certificationand hope the Chinese authority and the FAA can come to a helpful agreement.Comac has not given up, the executive adds: FAA endorsement is still a C919objective.

“在我们看来,这是一个非常复杂的局面,”密切参与了C919的认证工作的高管表示。“由于受到美国联邦航空局对ARJ21的立场的影响,我们目前没有办法解决这个问题。”目前,C919项目只能设法取得中国民航总局的认证,并希望中国当局和美国联邦航空局可以共同达成一个有用的协议。中国商飞并没有放弃,该高管补充道:美国联邦航空局认证仍然是C919的目标。

Under a Bilateral Air Safety Agreement, theFAA is coaching and supervising the CAAC in dealing with the ARJ21certification application. If and when the process is correctly completed, withthe issue or refusal of a type certificate, the FAA will recognize the CAAC asa certifying authority. The FAA is similarly helping the Japanese CivilAviation Bureau, with the Mitsubishi Aircraft MRJ regional jet as the testcase. The FAA and European Aviation Safety Authority support authorities ofother countries in this way because Americans and Europeans also fly on theforeign aircraft.

根据双边航空安全协定,美国联邦航空局正在指导和监督中国民航总局涵盖ARJ21认证申请的进行。只有当这个过程被正确完成之时,随着该型号证书的签发或驳回,美国联邦航空局将承认中国民航总局作为一个认证机构。美国联邦航空局同样正在帮助日本运输省航空局,而三菱飞机公司的MRJ支线喷气机则作为测试用例。美国联邦航空局和欧洲航空安全局用这种方法对其他国家的部门提供支持,因为美国人和欧洲人也乘坐外国航空器飞行。

The ARJ is not now expected to be certifieduntil the end of 2014, by which time the CAAC will have accumulated at leastthree years of C919 work with little or no FAA involvement. The issue iswhether the FAA will recognize the validity of that work retrospectively oncethe CAAC proves itself with the ARJ21. The FAA would have to accept that itsChinese counterpart had followed the same procedures with the C919 as it usedfor the ARJ21. Last year, an official familiar with the FAA's options suggestedthat it could do so. Comac officials have no assurance that it will, however.And the FAA's confidence can only decline as the volume of unrecognized workrises.

该型新一代支线喷气机现在预计不会得到认证,直到2014年年底,届时中国民航总局会先积累至少三年C919很少或没有美国联邦航空局介入的工作。考虑到中国民航总局曾经证明自己的ARJ21,问题是美国联邦航空局是否会承认到这些工作的有效性。美国联邦航空局将不得不接受,它的中国同行把曾使用在 ARJ21上相同的程序用于C919。去年,一位熟悉美国联邦航空局选项的官员建议它可以这样做。但是,中国商飞官员不能保证它会这样。并且当未确认工作量上升时,美国联邦航空局的信心只得衰退。

Customers of the C919 have expressed adesire for FAA endorsement of the certification, even though they are allChinese and therefore do not need it. There is no suggestion the CAAC would besoft on Comac; on the contrary, it is repeatedly reported that the Chineseauthority is tougher than the FAA.

C919的客户都表示对美国联邦航空局认可认证的渴望,虽然他们都是中国人,因此并不需要它。没有细微的迹象显示中国民航总局将软化对中国商飞的态度,相反,中国当局比美国联邦航空局态度更为强硬的消息则被反复报道。

The C919's competitiveness in non-Chinesemarkets has long been questioned, especially since 2010-11, when Airbus andBoeing launched new versions of the A320 and 737 with engines the same as orsimilar to the CFM Leap 1 on Comac's aircraft. This year's schedule slippages andrejection of a composite material for the center wing box have furtherdiminished the C919's market clout (AW&ST Aug. 19, p. 39).

C919在非中国市场的竞争力却一直受到质疑,特别是自2010至11年以来,当空中客车公司和波音公司推出的A320和737装有与中国商飞飞机的 CFM公司Leap 1型发动机相同或相似的新版本时。今年的日程延误和中央翼盒的复合材料的抛弃都进一步削弱了C919的市场影响力(《航空和空间技术周刊》8月19日号,第39页)。

But even if the aircraft proved to beseriously outmatched, production subsidies could conceivably allow Comac,itself a state agency, to sell it—providing the C919 had the certification thatmade it eligible for the market.

但是,即使飞机被证明是严重落伍的,生产补贴也可以令人信服地允许中国商飞——其本身就是一个国家机构——把它卖掉,这提供了C919拥有使得它适宜于市场的认证。

Subsidies are likely anyway. The announcedC919 development budget is 58 billion yuan ($9.5 billion) but the real figureis probably 50% higher, says an industry executive whose company, not acompetitor to Comac, has studied the issue. Adding interest, a production runof 1,000 C919s would demand recovery of well over $20 million in developmentcosts per aircraft, a figure the market is not likely to bear.

无论如何,补贴是很可能的。已公布的C919开发预算为580亿元人民币(约合95亿美元),但实际研究该问题的数字可能高出50%,一名与中国商飞没有竞争关系的公司的行业高管说。加上利息,1,000架 C919的生产运行会需要每架飞机的开发成本要远远超过2000万美元的盈利,这个数字市场也不太可能能够承受。

Comac's Chinese engineers are probablyearning about half as much as their counterparts at Boeing or Airbus, but theC919 program is also employing many very costly expatriate foreign engineers.Most important, inexperienced managers cannot be expected to know the mostefficient ways of developing an airliner, so program costs should be unusuallyhigh, says the executive.

中国商飞的中国工程师很可能只获得他们在波音或空客的同行一半左右的薪水,但C919项目也雇佣了许多高薪聘请的外籍工程师。最重要的是,没有经验的管理者不能被期望知道开发一架大型客机的最有效的方法,所以项目的成本应该是非常高的,该高管表示。

Two years ago Comac had to ask for top-updevelopment funding from the government, which agreed to an unknown amount. Themoney seems to be budgeted but not assured, however, because Comac has tosecure its funds every year from the government, industry officials say.

两年前,商飞不得不要求从政府追加发展资金,政府接受了一个未知的数额。这笔钱似乎是预算,但却无法确定,因为商飞不得不每年从政府确保其资金,行业官员说。

Since the top-up was approved, Comac hasadded about a year to the development schedule, implying another year of salaries.It has a three-month buffer in its current schedule, which includes a firstflight late in 2015.

由于追加被批准,商飞已经给开发进度增加了大约一年的时间,这意味着又一年的薪资。在其目前的时间表里,它有一个为期三个月的缓冲,其中包括首次试飞晚于2015年。

Production costs of the C919 will have tobe higher than those of the A320 and 737 at first, since Airbus and Boeing havevery well-honed manufacturing processes. But studies by the same outsidecompany suggest that when the C919 production line is mature, Comac should beable build more, cheaply, thanks largely to lower wages.

首先,C919的生产成本将不得不比空客A320和737的更高,因为空客和波音有非常良好的犀利的制造工艺。但由相同外部公司的研究表明,当C919生产线成熟时,商飞应该能够造得更多、更便宜,这主要得益于较低的工资。

Comac has forecast production of 2,200C919s and an eventual steady rate of 150 a year. Executives who have studiedthe program say the actual total will probably be about half of the forecast.They do not see reason to be more pessimistic, because Chinese demand canprobably soak up 1,000 C919s, providing the aircraft performs reasonably well.The key performance target is an operating cost 10% below those ofcurrent-production 737s and A320s.

中国商飞公司预测产量为2200架C919,而最终稳定的速率为每年150架。研究该项目的高管称,实际总量将可能是预测的一半左右。他们没有看到较为悲观的理由,因为中国的需求或许可以消化1,000架C919,提供给该型飞机相当不错的表现。关键绩效指标是经营成本低于目前生产737和A320飞机的 10%。

The Chinese manufacturer is investing inadvanced automatic fabrication equipment, which should cut costs if keptrunning at an optimum level, as well as guarantee precision. Its new plantoutside Shanghai is mostly a final assembly line, however. Major airframemodules will come from Avic, whose efficiency and investment will thereforeheavily influence costs.

这家中国制造商正在投资于先进的自动化生产设备,如果保持在最佳水平以及保证精度运转,这可能削减成本。然而,其上海以外的新厂房主要是一个总装线。机身主要模块将来自中航工业,由于其效率和投资额,因此将严重影响成本。

The quality of Avic's production may be anissue. Comac has been dissatisfied with ARJ21 assemblies from Avic, even thoughthat separate state group is quite capable of excellent work. For example, itproduces A320 outer wings, to Airbus's great satisfaction.

中航工业产品的质量可能是一个问题。中国商飞已经不满于中航工业ARJ21的装配组件,即使是那样,这些不同的国有集团对出色的工作游刃有余。例如,它生产的A320外翼,空中客车公司非常满意。

Comac is leaning toward aluminum-lithiumfor the skin of the C919 fuselage, but only in the cylindrical sections, sinceit does not want Avic to try making the difficult double curvatures of the noseand tail with an unfamiliar material. Comac is somewhat obliged to use theAlcoa metal, because it no longer has a composite center wing box but stillneeds to meet a government requirement for 30% advanced materials in theairframe. The tail and movable surfaces will be of carbon-fiber composite.

中国商飞倾向于用铝锂合金作为C919机身的蒙皮,但只限于圆柱段,因为它不想要中航工业尝试用不熟悉的材料制作难度较大的机头和机尾的双曲面。中国商飞不得不稍微使用美国铝业的合金,因为它不再具有复合中心翼盒,但仍需要满足政府要求的在机身运用30%的先进材料。尾部和升降舵将使用碳纤维复合材料。

The design is currently overweight, says anexecutive familiar with development, but the problem is not considered serious.The cause is mainly in the weight of equipment, not the structure.

一名熟悉开发的高管说,该设计目前超重,但该问题不被重视。原因主要在于设备的重量,而不是结构。

Assembly of the first prototype should beunderway by the end of 2014, assuming no further delays. A delay announced inAugust was the program's second; the first was not revealed officially but wasreported by Aviation Week (AW&ST June 17, p. 96).

假设没有进一步的延误,第一架原型机的组装应该是到2014年底进行。8月宣布延迟是该项目的第二架,第一架虽然没有正式透露,但已被《航空周刊》报道(《航空和空间技术周刊》 6月17日号,第96页)。

The C919's iron bird, a structure on theground on which systems are tested, was due to be operational around the end of2013 with mechanical and hydraulic systems. By mid 2014 it should be workingwith all systems.

在C919的地面测试机(系统进行测试的地面结构)将与机械和液压系统在2013年年底投入运行。到2014年中期,它应该与所有系统一起工作。

The ARJ21, meanwhile, should now be in thelast of 12 years of development. The first two production aircraft are due tobe completed this month. Judging from recent progress in assembly at Comac'sold Shanghai factory, at least one of them will be.

与此同时,通过过去12年的开发,ARJ21现在应该已经完成。前两个生产型飞机是应该在本月内完成。从位于中国商飞的上海老厂的最新装配进度来判断,至少有一架将要完成。

ARJ21 production is said to be supported bya government order for 50 aircraft as official transports. Comac is alsoselling 30 of the type to itself; Chengdu Airlines, owned by the manufacturer,will be the first operator. Contracts with other airlines probably had littlebinding effect when signed and, following the enormous development delays, evenless now. Shortly after program launch, the ARJ21 was originally due to go intoservice in 2007.

ARJ21的成品据说是由政府订购50架飞机作为官方交通工具来支持。中国商飞同样卖给自己30架该型飞机;由制造商所拥有的成都航空公司,将成为第一家运营商。而与其他航空公司的合同在签署时可能有很少的约束力,随着巨大开发延期,现在甚至更少了。项目推出后不久,ARJ21最初应该于2007年投入运营。

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热门评论

外媒?

美国佬的适航证?

哦!我的天哪……!

你觉得这玩意有公正性和可信性?

印度阿三都能准许参加国际空间站!中国都不被允许?

你觉得是什么原因?

5楼lwjack

不打压你怎么垄断民机市场?

不唱衰你打击你的信心,怎么让你失去信心主动放弃缴械投降??

撸主就是这么脑残而容易着了道呀


101楼扬风

14楼 divl008

明显国外打压,如果美国不给C919适航证,那中国也禁止波音737进入中国,以后还可以联合俄罗斯,两国相互认证对方的大飞机进入本国市场。另外C919的需要加紧了,不能再拖了。

27楼 问多多
美国的适航证取得标准和测试项目,是白纸黑字的标准文件就摆在那里。达标了就给适航证,不达标就不给适航证。

难道要人家降低标准迁就你?否则就是打压?

如果C919能全面达到737NG的各项性能指标,拿美国适航证肯定没问题。如果达不到,不能拿适航证只能怪你自己技术不行。

98楼 divl008
那时表面现象,之前很多东西都证明了,有些产品命名达到了标准美国却又拿出其他的东西来阻止你进入,比如华为在美国的投资,在你所有都达标的情况下,用国家安全理由来阻止你进入.所以很多问题不是表面那么简单.以前我和你的想法一样,但是近几年美国在很多领域的做法很难让人信任它.

27楼还是太年轻啊。

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