[原创]美国时代周刊:中国(人民币)能战胜美元吗?

陈大哥吃肉 收藏 13 8136
导读:http://world.time.com/2013/12/10/chinas-quest-to-take-on-the-u-s-dollar-has-a-long-way-to-go/(原文来源:时代周刊) Can China Beat the Dollar? 中国(人民币)能战胜美元吗? The Chinese yuan makes the list of top 10 most traded denominations for the first time,
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http://world.time.com/2013/12/10/chinas-quest-to-take-on-the-u-s-dollar-has-a-long-way-to-go/(原文来源:时代周刊)

Can China Beat the Dollar?

中国(人民币)能战胜美元吗?

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The Chinese yuan makes the list of top 10 most traded denominations for the first time, but Beijing's currency reforms are still too tentative

人民币首次上榜全球10大交易最频繁货币,但北京的货币改革仍然停滞不前

By Michael Schuman @MichaelSchumanDec. 10, 20130

Policymakers in Beijing must be feeling warm and fuzzy these days. For years, they have railed against the dominance of the U.S. dollar in global trade and finance, complaining that it leaves the world at the mercy of erratic Washington politics and questionable economic management.

北京的政策制定者这些天一定感受到了温暖。多年来,他们一直抱怨美元在国际贸易和金融方面的优势;抱怨在华盛顿多变的政策下,中国已经和这个世界脱轨了;抱怨(华盛顿)质疑了(中国的)经济管理权。

China’s leaders can only blame themselves for their heavy reliance on the dollar, but still, from Beijing’s perspective, a world in which China’s own currency — the renminbi — is a more potent force would be a more stable one for the country’s development.

(出现上述抱怨)中国的领导人只能怪自己对美元过度依赖了。但是,从北京的角度来看,在世界上,中国自己的货币(人民币)是保证中国发展更稳定的一个更加强大的力量。

Thus the recent news about how popular the yuan is becoming must be heartening. Earlier this year, a survey from the Bank for International Settlements showed that the renminbi entered the list of top 10 most traded currencies for the first time.

因此,最近的有关人民币如何受欢迎的新闻,真的很鼓舞人心。今年的早些时候,一项来自国际清算银行的报告显示,人民币首次进入全球十大交易最频繁货币的榜单。

And in early December, a report from financial-services firm SWIFT revealed that the renminbi had overtaken the euro as the second most used currency in global trade finance, with its share jumping from a mere 1.89% in January 2012 to a more respectable 8.66% in October.

并且12月初,一项来自环球银行金融电信协会SWIFT的报告显示,人民币已经取代欧元,成为了第二大常用的国际贸易融资货币。(在传统贸易融资工具——信用证和托收的使用中,采用人民币作为计价及结算货币的比率),已由2012年1月的1.89%,增至今年10月的8.66%,市场占有率排行第二

But Beijing shouldn’t uncork the champagne bottles just yet. The same SWIFT report details just how far the renminbi still has to go to become a truly international currency. Nearly all the trade finance conducted in yuan was undertaken by businesses in China, Hong Kong and Singapore, showing that its use remains extremely limited.

但北京现在就开香槟(庆祝)并不明智。同样来自SWIFT的一份报告显示,人民币想要成为真正的世界货币,还有很长的一段路要走。几乎所有的(有关人民币的)贸易融资都是由中国企业发起,但交易地点却是在香港和新加坡,这表明人民币的作用仍然十分有限。

The dollar is the currency of choice in 81% of the world’s trade finance, according to the SWIFT study. Nor has the renminbi gained much stature among the world’s central bankers, who still prefer the dollar and euro. Central banks in countries as diverse as Chile, Nigeria and Malaysia have reported holding yuan in their portfolios, but its use as a reserve currency is overall infinitesimal.

根据SWIFT,全球81%的贸易融资选择的货币都是美元。在各国中央银行的银行家中,没有多少人喜欢人民币,他们仍然喜欢美元和欧元。虽然智利、尼日尼亚和马来西亚的中央银行已经报道说在其投资组合中持有人民币,但其(人民币)在整个储备货币中的作用是微不足道的。

The hurdle facing the renminbi is both simple and not simple. Despite China’s global clout in manufacturing and exports, in international finance it remains a bit player. That’s because the government still imposes strict barriers between China’s financial sector and capital markets and those of the rest of the world. Controls restrict how money flows in and out of the country.

人民币发展的障碍说简单就简单,说难就难。尽管中国在制造和出口上有着很大的全球影响力,但在国际金融中他仍然是一个小角色。这是因为(中国)政府在中国和全球其他国家的金融业和资本市场之间,仍然设置了坚强的壁垒,控制并且限制资金的流入和流出。

Foreign investors cannot freely invest in yuan-denominated assets. The value of the yuan is still heavily influenced by the government, and it is not permitted to trade freely. If global investors, bankers and businessmen are to have the confidence in the yuan necessary to elevate its status, China will have to clear these restrictions away and give more power to the market in determining the worth of the yuan and its flow in and out of the country.

外国投资者不能自由地投资人民币资产。人民币的价值在很大程度上仍然受到政府的影响,它(人民币)不能自由地进行贸易。如果全球的投资者、银行家和商人有信心提高他们在人民币中的地位,中国将不得不得清除这些壁垒。并且,在人民币的价值决定和进出流向市场的过程中,给予(人民币)更多的权力。

That’s easier said than done. China’s policymakers have been talking up a storm for years about internationalizing the renminbi, but progress has been glacial. Still, over the past few weeks, the promises of reform have become bolder and more specific.

但说起来容易做起来难。中国的政策制定者们一直在讨论人民币怎样才能国际化,但进展极为缓慢。然而,在过去的几周里,(人民币)改革的承诺变得更大胆、更具体了。

In early December, they took some important steps when the People’s Bank of China, the country’s central bank, issued guidelines on experimental capital flows to take place in a new Shanghai free-trade zone (FTZ), launched in September.

12月初,当中国人民银行(国家的银行)发出在上海免税贸易区对资本流动进行管理的指示时(9月推出),他们就采取了一些重要的行动。

New types of bank accounts will be permitted in the FTZ that can be used to move money more freely in and out of the international financial market. Foreign investors operating in the zone will be able to invest without the usual restrictions in the stock market in Shanghai, and Chinese will be better able to invest overseas. Calling the guidelines “bolder than expected,” HSBC economists Qu Hongbin and Ma Xiaoping asserted that they “suggest a marked acceleration in capital-account liberalization.”

在免税区,能让资金在国际金融市场进出更加灵活的新型银行账户就被使用。在该区域的外国投资者将在没有通常限制的上海股市进行投资,并且中国人也能更好地进行海外投资。汇丰银行的经济学家屈宏斌马晓萍称,“电话指引将比预期更大胆,我们建议加速资本账户的自由化。”

Such steps are aimed at experimenting with the sort of open flows of money that could, when implemented on a national scale, help the renminbi become a major international currency. But there are clear limits to how far the central bank is willing to go. There appears to be little concrete movement on allowing the yuan to be valued in a more market-oriented fashion.

这些措施的目的是,在全国范围实施后,尝试资金流量是否可以排序,从而使人民币能够成为国际货币。但是中央银行(的此项政策)能走多远还是有限制的。似乎有什么能使人民币用一个更加市场化的方式进行估值。

It also appears that the zone will be walled off from the rest of China — so the experiments there don’t impact the wider economy. In other words, change will be slow, carefully monitored and confined to a certain group of individuals and institutions.

这似乎也把该区域和中国各地用一堵墙隔开了——这样的试验并不影响整体。换句话说,变化是缓慢的,仔细监测是局限在一定的团体和个人中的。

To a certain degree, that makes sense. Throwing open China’s insulated, inexperienced and ill-equipped financial sector to free capital flows and more foreign competition could be disastrous. But at the same time, going too slowly will keep Chinese banks, financial markets — and, yes, the renminbi — stunted and their international sway limited. Figuring out how quickly to proceed will be one of the biggest challenges facing China’s policymakers over the next decade. Until then, the renminbi’s dollar dreams will have to wait.

在某种程度上,这种说法是有道理的。打开中国的“壁垒”后,经验不足、金融机构资本进行自由流动的装备落后、更多的外国竞争者(对中国来说)将是致命的。但同时,进展太慢会让中国的银行、金融市场和人民币的国际影响力十分有限。在未来十年,如何快速地(使人民币国际化)将是中国的政策制定者面临的最大挑战。在此之前,人民币替换美元的梦想将必须等待(人民币不可能替代美元)。

美国网友评论:

by78

I hope it'll be a long way to go, but of course, the author assumes the U.S. economy will not collapse anytime soon.

我希望这将是一段很长的路,但是笔者得假设美国的经济不会很快就崩溃

ChinaLee

While we wait for more reforms, the Chinese currency continues to appreciate against the U.S. dollar.

The Chinese currency has appreciated by 36% against the U.S. Dollar in the last eight years.

According to an U.S. Treasury report, annual inflation is higher in China than the United States and this has contributed another 10% effective Chinese Yuan appreciation against the U.S. Dollar.

In total, China's currency Yuan has appreciated 46% (ie. 36% from nominal currency appreciation and 10% from higher inflation) against the U.S. dollar since 2005.

----

Math:

In 2005, one Yuan was worth 12.09 cents. [1 dollar / 8.27 yuans = 12.09 cents per Yuan]

In 2013, one Yuan is worth 16.47 cents. [1 dollar / 6.07 yuans = 16.47 cents per Yuan]

Yuan appreciation = (16.47 cents – 12.09 cents) / 12.09 cents * 100 = 36% appreciation vs. U.S. dollar

当我们在等待(国家能进行)更多的改革时,中国的货币将持续升值兑换美元。

在过去八年,中国的货币兑换美元的利率已经升值了36%。

根据美国财政部的报告,中国每年的通货膨胀率已经超过了美国,这促成了人民币兑换美元利率的另外10%的升值。

总体而言,自2005年以来,中国的货币已经累计升值了46%(其中36%来源于名义货币升值,10%来源于较高的通货膨胀率)

----

数据:

在2005年,一元人民币价值12.09美分[1美元/8.27人民币=每元12.09美分]

在2013年,一元人民币价值16.47美分[1美元/6.27人民币=每元16.47美分]

人民币的升值=(16.47美分-12.09美分)/12.09美分*100=在美元基础上升值了36%

outspoken

keep on printing more $ and things will be wonderful.

继续印制更多的美元,事情总是美好的。

duduong

China's desire to see RMB used more widely does not come from selfish ambition; instead, it stems from the US' shameless abuse of its dollar privilege. The Fed has printed $4 trillion out of thin air over the past 5 years; this is equivalent to a theft from everyone who uses dollars for international trades. It was an American treasury secretary who once famously said, "the dollar is our currency, and YOUR problem!" As long as the US administration continues its exploitation of the rest of the world, the victims will naturally want to rid themselves of the shackle that is called the dollar.

中国希望看到人民币更加广泛地被使用并非来自于(中国的)私心,而是美国无耻地滥用美元特权造成的。在过去的5年里,美联储已经凭空印制了4万亿美元,这相当于对国际贸易中每个使用美元的人实施盗窃。一位美国财政部长曾经说过,“美元是我们的货币,你的问题”。只要美国政府继续在世界其他地区进行掠夺,那么受害者自然想要摆脱这个被称为“美元”的束缚。


本文内容于 2013/12/12 10:07:01 被陈大哥吃肉编辑

[ 转自铁血社区 http://bbs.tiexue.net/ ]

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13楼471341

美元是不可能倒的,看看这几天的外汇市场一美元=6.07人民币。马上就要破6了。升的太猛,偏偏它是对外升值,对内贬值。对那些所谓的精英来说无所谓。对那些靠出口中小型企业,以及在企业里打工的农民工来说。勒紧裤腰带的日子就要来临了

我来做个数学模型模拟一下美国人通过美元吸别人的血,大家看对不对。

假如,一下全部假如哈,并且把其它国家比喻为日本:

美国自己有2W美元,日本有200W日元,美元比日元为1:100,日本拿100W日元换了1W美元才能世界买卖流通。

于是美国有1W美元+100W日元,日本也有1W美元+100W日元。

十年后,日本辛勤工作,赚到了1W美元的财富,而美国什么都不用做,嘴巴说下自己搞金融也赚了1W美元,然后开动印钞机印刷2W美元出来,用其中1W美元买了日本的东西。

这样,美国就有了2W美元+100W日元,日本也是有了2W美元+100W日元。

然后情况就是,日本人辛苦赚钱,美国人帮着花,花多了还会引起金融危机,拖累日本人赚钱。

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