美国畏惧中国——但中国没有一个人怕美国

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美国畏惧中国——但中国没有一个人怕美国

52 Bomber.(Reuters / DarrenStaples)

B52轰炸机(图片:路透社/ DarrenStaples)

You may think what you want,but the latest US diplomacy response to send two B-52 Bombers over China’s new‘East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone’, unannounced and uninvited,doesn’t exactly give much respect to China’s Ministry of Defense.

中国日前划定了新的东海防空识别区,作为回敬,美国在没有通告的情况下派出了不速之客——两架B52轰炸机前往该区域,似乎丝毫未顾及中国国防部的颜面。

Aboutdeep sea oil and national spirit

深海原油和民族精神

The flights took place over thedisputed Senkaku/Diaoyutai islands, a pile of uninhabited rocks pounded byrough seas. The territory is claimed by both Japan and China. It’s about deepsea oil, some economists say, but it’s much more about national spirit. Sowhich side is right?

飞行所经过的地点正是争议的中心——钓鱼岛/尖阁诸岛,这是海上一块无人居住的荒芜小岛,中日两国都宣称拥有对该岛的主权。一些经济学者认为,两国争这块岛是为了附近的深海石油,但实际上,中日的这场争夺战更有民族精神的原因在里面。那么,究竟哪一方是对的呢?

Tokyo evidently started a chainreaction last year by acquiring the islands from a private owner. Beijing,which had previously mentally shelved the dispute, immediately retaliated withthe greatest national boycott of Japan since then Prime Minister Koizumivisited the Yasukuni War Shrine in September 2012. Truth be told, the isletsare of little value. It’s the surrounding sea which matters: it’s China’seastern passage to the Pacific Ocean, which Japan would love to govern.

事件的开端,首先要追溯到东京在去年搞的“国有化”事件。在日本方面扬言要从私人手里购买岛屿之后,此前一直保持克制,坚持“搁置争议”的中国政府迅速做出了反击——中国爆发了一场反日活动,其规模堪称是小泉在2012参拜经过神社后最大。照实说,其实那个岛屿本身不值几个钱——问题是岛屿周围的海域:这片海域是中国东部通往太平洋的走廊,而日本的目的正在于控制这条走廊。

B-52Bombers - frightening hulks of metal

B52轰炸机——一拿来吓人的钢铁大块头

Meanwhile the US, which stilloccupies Japan, has almost 50,000 troop stationed on Okinawa and elsewhere.Washington saw the necessity to remind all its semi-colonies and satellitestates in East and South Asia that it is still the world’s strongman.

这里就不得不提到另一个国家,美国。美国现在还占领着日本,在冲绳等地拥有将近5万驻军。如今发生了这种事,美国政府就觉得,要是再不出来露一手,好教他在东亚和南亚的半殖民地兼卫星国知道咱还是世界最强国家,那就说不过去了。

In the future, the mere mentionof any national defense airspace will encourage the US military to fly rightthrough it. (We are seeing this with US drones in Pakistan and Iran.) And incase you haven’t seen one, these bombers are truly frightening hulks of metal.Japan still remembers the older B-29 model, two of which dropped atomic bombson Nagasaki and Hiroshima.

可以预见的是,未来任何有关防空领域的事件,不管多么鸡毛蒜皮,都会令美国有派飞机耀武扬威的冲动。(巴基斯坦和伊朗不就老有美国无人机出入吗)如果不派无人机了,那更可怕的玩意——轰炸机就要来了。日本到现在估计还记得老式的B29,当年就是这种轰炸机在广岛和长崎丢下了两颗蛋蛋。

The story may even have thepotential to inspire a new internet meme: The US might want to dispatch unarmedbombers for Christmas over protests in Xinjiang or Tibet.

所以说,这件事哪天发展成网络上的一个梗也是不奇怪的:为了西Z和X疆的抗议而派飞机?算了吧,还是为了欢庆圣诞派飞机比较有价值。

Chinaversus the USA

中国VS美国

What does all this travesty ofpower mean? Most analysts agree that China is going to overtake the UnitedStates in terms of economic might this decade or the next. That shift,commentators predict, is going to be very dramatic; it’s like losing your job,your status, your self-confidence. Some worry that the US Empire is going downin Hollywood fashion, with a few more explosions here and there.

归根结底,这一切的闹剧都是为了什么?首先我们要明白一件事,根据当今大多数分析家的预测,中国会在十年左右的时间里取代美国成为全球经济老大。绝不能小看了这种变化——失业、失去地位和自信心也就是这样了。一些人甚至还认为,美帝国近年的电影总是各种爆炸,总的来看,好莱坞似乎也开始走下坡路了。

Already degraded to its newrole as the antagonist in history (China now being the protagonist), Washingtonstill thinks it possesses a time machine called ‘pre-emptive action’: some USpoliticians wish to change the future by preemptively striking out at China now– while it’s still somewhat fragile and weak.

美国本来一直是主角,这下被编导撸成了配角(中国现在成了主角),华盛顿自然不服气。美国仍觉得自己可以回到当年的位置,而具体做法可概括为“先发制人“四字:也就是说,许多美国政客认为,改变未来配角命的方法就是先一步对未来的主角发动袭击,趁中国的军力还不那么强的时候

That’s understandable, evenjustifiable. From an ethical point of view, however, there is probably only oneway to go about a benign competition: China as the new contender has the moralobligation to challenge the current world champion and, if it can, replace theUS as the world’s leading superpower. If not, well, we’d still admire itscourage. And the US, vice versa, has the moral obligation to accept thechallenge and deliver a fair fight and no dirty tricks.

这种思路可以理解,甚至可以说无可厚非。可是从道德的角度来看,两国其实是应该良性竞争的:作为挑战者,中国肩负挑战现任全球老大的道德使命。如果中国做到了,中国就将取代美国成为新的全球最强。如果中国惜败了,没关系,我们仍然会赞赏中国的勇气。至于美国则相反,它的道德使命是接受其他人的挑战,与他们公平竞争,不耍花招。

The world is watching. Ifeither China or the US fails its moral obligations, few nations are going torespect them in the future.

全世界正在观看这场争斗。不论中国还是美国,如果有一方放弃了自己的使命,又或是坏了规矩,那以后也别想有哪个国家尊重它了。

Oldchamp keeps plugging away belligerently

先王已老,兀自挥刀不已

With more than 178 wars andmilitary interventions on its record, the United States is the experienced old imperialistthat has everything to lose. Naturally, it fears China. No one in China,however, fears the US. That’s why, perhaps, the US feels it has to parade itsmilitary capacity to bomb China.

迄今为止,美国发动了178场战争和武装侵略,堪称是个经验丰富的老牌帝国主义国家,因而也就更患得患失,担惊受怕,这样的美国自然会畏惧中国。与之相反,中国没有这样的隐忧,他们没有一个人害怕美国。美国觉得自己一定要时不时亮亮肌肉,以显示自己有轰炸中国的能力,或许也就是出于这种心态吧。

What signals doesbomber-diplomacy send to Russia, Iran, India, Japan, China, and Europe?Everyone feels that the US, like most empires before it, has grown arrogant andabusive: torture in Guantanamo, drones in Pakistan, wars in the Middle East,surveillance of the human race. Now it’s bombers over China.

这种举动落在俄罗斯、伊朗、印度、日本、中国和欧洲眼里,是个什么样子呢?每个人都感觉到了:美国,就像他之前的无数帝国一样,正日益变得自大和怨毒:关塔那摩虐囚案,在巴基斯坦的无人机、中东的战争、对全球人类的监视都是其表现。现在更是搞起了轰炸机外交,拿这个来搞中国了。

Game theorists may compare itto a game of ‘Go’. You may have heard about Go, the famed strategic board gamewith its black and white pieces: the US champion and its allies continue tosurround China’s pieces and, move by move, they seek to force the challengerinward and into resignation.

博弈论者或许会将这幅情形与“围棋”联系起来。您或许听说过围棋,这是一种著名的桌上战略游戏,有黑白两种棋子。现在美国及其盟友的举动,就好像是在试图一步步包围中国的棋子,从外围逼迫中国棋子向内收缩,最终让中国屈服归顺。

Forthe sake of our humanity

为了全人类

Some fans of the ‘AncientChina’ theory claim that China has a Confucius-proven long term strategy (theGo game was invented in China) while the US, they assert, is just ashort-sighted cowboy. Both sides will undoubtedly bring their fineststrategists to the table. But consider this: what makes the Go game socompetitive, just like chess, is that it is inherently a zero-sum game. Itmeans that if one side wins, the other loses. So for the sake of humanity, it’sbetter to not play this island game with bombers at all.

一些对中国古代思想颇有研究的人认为,中国是一个立足于儒家学说,具有长远的战略眼光的国家(围棋就是中国发明的哟),相比之下,美国就是个短视的牛仔男孩罢了。如今中美博弈,两边肯定要各尽所能,把自己最强的谋略拿出来。但从另一个角度想,围棋之所以像象棋一样如此具有竞争性,也是因为它的内在的“零和博弈”思想,双方无论哪一方赢了,另一方都要接受失败的结局。而对于全人类来说,类似“轰炸机过岛”这样的游戏,最好是不要再玩了。

Thorsten Pattberg is a Germanwriter, scholar, and cultural critic. He is a former research fellow at TheInstitute for Advanced Humanistic Studies at Peking University and the authorof ‘The East-West Dichotomy’.

本文作者Thorsten Pattberg(中文名裴德思),德国作家、学者、文化评论员,曾任北京大学高等人文研究院研究员,著有《东西二元论》。

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