翻译:华尔街日报《尖阁群岛(钓鱼岛)迷局》

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原文:

The Senkaku Boomerang

China's leaders may have thought that by frequently dispatching ships and planes into Japan's territory around the tiny Senkaku Islands they would cause Tokyo to bow to their demands. Instead, their strategy of harassment and intimidation has accomplished the opposite—and then some.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has rallied Japanese to defend their territorial sovereignty, and he may succeed in reinterpreting the Japanese constitution to allow Japan to come to the military aid of its allies. The threat to the Senakakus has strengthened Tokyo's alliance with Washington, with the two countries agreeing earlier this month to bolster their military ties, including the deployment of U.S. P-8 maritime surveillance planes in Japan and stationing a second missile-defense radar.

Japan has also strengthened its ties with Southeast Asia. Smaller regional powers have come to see Tokyo as a potential defender, along with the U.S., of the peace against a hegemonic Middle Kingdom.

In an interview with the Journal last week, Mr. Abe, fresh from a successful tour of the region, signalled his willingness to take up a greater leadership role and issued a warning to Beijing. "There are concerns that China is attempting to change the status quo by force, rather than by rule of law. But if China opts to take that path, then it won't be able to emerge peacefully," he said.

Mr. Abe's remarks were followed by more clear-eyed talk from Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera, who on Tuesday accused China of endangering the peace by sending its coast guard vessels into the Senkaku waters more than once a week: "I believe the intrusions by China in the territorial waters around the Senkaku islands fall in the 'grey zone' (between) peacetime and an emergency situation."

Japan has begun conducting amphibious exercises that simulate the kind of operations that might be needed to defend or retake the Senkakus. It is expected to create a new unit tasked with such missions.

The danger now is that the chances of accident, miscalculation or even a shooting incident grow with each Chinese foray near the islands. That's what makes Japan's demonstration of political resolve and military capability all the more important, but Japan cannot be left on its own. The U.S. took the Senkakus from Japan after World War II and returned them in the early 1970s, effectively settling the question of their sovereignty for American purposes. The more explicit the Obama Administration is that the Senkakus are Japanese, the likelier Beijing is to back down.

In the long term, there may be a possibility for Japan and China to resolve their differences by freezing the status quo and deferring resolution of the dispute to future generations. That was the view Deng Xiaoping had of the matter, and current leader Xijinping would do well to follow in those footsteps. The alternative is to further alienate China from its neighbors, and further call into doubt the promise—and the hope—that China's rise will be peaceful.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303618904579167072391869280

中国领导人或许认为凭借频繁派遣飞机舰船进入日本钓鱼岛周边领域便能迫使东京屈服——但实际上,其恫吓骚扰的策略只能适得其反。

安倍首相已经开始重振日本使其能够捍卫领土主权,并且可能成功修宪令日本得以行使集体自卫权。钓鱼岛面临的日益严峻的威胁也让日美同盟大大加强——本月早些时候,美日双方商定进一步强化军事合作,举措包括部署P8海上反潜巡逻机以及第二部导弹预警雷达。

日本也在加强与东南亚国家的合作关系。后者也乐于将日本视作继美国之后,对抗中国霸权的又一保护者。

在上周的一次报刊访谈中,在受到出访东南亚成果鼓舞的情况下,安倍表示愿意成为地区领袖并对北京发出告诫。“有人担忧,中国正企图通过武力而不是法治,去改变现状。但如果中国选择了这条道路,那么,它就不会和平崛起。”他说。

相较安倍,日本防卫相小野寺五典更加尖锐地表达了日方立场。周二(10月29日)他在谴责中国频繁派遣海警船闯入钓鱼岛附近水域时声称:“我认为中国入侵尖阁诸岛周边领海的行为,已落入和平时期与紧急事态之间的灰色地带。”

日本已经在着手筹建两栖攻击部队,以便用于钓鱼岛有事时进行防卫甚至夺岛作战。

随着中国对钓鱼岛侵入的不断加深,双方擦枪走火的几率也大幅提高。这使得日本展示自身的政治决意和军事能力的重要性也愈发凸显,不过,日本不应孤军奋战。美国自二战后从日本获取了钓鱼岛并于70年代早期将它归还日方,这一行为本身就彰显了美国对钓鱼岛主权的立场。奥巴马政府越是清晰地表示对日本拥有该岛屿主权的支持,中国因此退却的可能性就越大。

从长远来看,中日双方维持现状并将争议留待后人解决的可能性还是存在的。这也是邓小平当年提出的观点,新一代领导人习近平或许将追随这样的政策。这样的选择将决定中国的邻国是否会与之疏远,并牵涉到人们是否愿意相信中国和平崛起的承诺与前景。

非常简短的社论,刊登于11月1日美国华尔街日报,华尔街日报是美国主流大报,销量超过百万,读者群面向年薪在15万美元以上的精英人群,影响力较大。这篇呼吁美国政府选边站的文章非常少见,值得玩味。但个人以为不会成为美国主流意见。美国还是会继续模糊政策。

不过,国内主流媒体转引该文时,漏掉最后一段(如凤凰网)不翻译,也值得玩味。


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