[原创翻译] 中国核武器发展综述--美国国防部报道

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[原创翻译] 中国核武器发展综述--美国国防部报道

Going, going, gone! In its latest annual report to Congress on the military and security developments of the People’s Republic of China, the Pentagon has removed the last public authoritative overview of Chinese nuclear forces.

在国会最新的中华人民共和国军军力与安全发展年度报告中,五角大楼移除了有关中国核力量的公开权威论述。

Until 2010, the annual reports included a table with a detailed breakdown of the different types of ballistic missiles that enabled the public to monitor the development of China’s nuclear modernization. In 2011, however, things began to change when a less detailed table was included that only showed overall categories of missiles. That version appeared in 2012 as well, but the 2013 report includes no table at all of China’s missile forces.

截止到2010年,年度报告均对中国各种型号的弹道导弹列出详细清单。让公众了解并监督中国的核武库的现代化发展情况。不过,从2011年开始,事情有所变化。该清单仅包括全部导弹的类别,详细度大打折扣。2012年也是这样。但2013年的报告,却少了这张关于中国导弹实力的列表。

The tidbits of information left in the report indicate an ICBM force that is modernizing but leveling out and an SSBN force that is approaching functional capability.

报告中相关数据的缺席,表明中国洲际导弹<ICBM>力量正在稳步发展,实现现代化。战略弹道导弹核潜艇<SSBN>也开始具备一定能力。

Land-Based Nuclear Forces 陆基核力量

DOD reports the same number of ICBMs as last year, 50-75. The Pentagon considers a missile with a range of at least 5,500 km to be an ICBM, so this number includes the DF-5A, DF-31A, DF-31 and DF-4. Of these, only the DF-5A and DF-31A can reach the continental United States.

国防部报告指出,中国洲际弹道导弹<ICBM>的数量和去年相同,依然是50-75枚。五角大楼定义洲际弹道导弹射程在5500公里以上。符合条件的有东风-5A,东风-31A<机动型>,东风31<机动型>和东风-4。其中,只有东风-5A和东风-31A<机动型>可打到美国本土。

The 50-75 ICBMs is the same number DOD has reported for the past three years, which indicates that the ICBM force level has leveled out for now. But DOD predicts that additional DF-31As will be deployed over the next two-three years.

根据国防部的报告,过去三年内,中国的洲际弹道导弹<ICBM>数量都是50-75枚。这表明其核武库目前还未得到扩充。但国防部预测,未来2-3年内,中国将部署更多的DF-31A导弹。

The report also repeats the prediction from previous years that China “may also be developing” a new road-mobile ICBM that is “possible capable of” carrying MIRVed warheads. The U.S. Intelligence Community has for several decades assessed that China has a capability to develop and deploy MIRV but that it has not yet done so. One sentence in the report comes close to saying that that’s about to change with “The new generation of mobile missiles, with warheads consisting of MIRVs and penetration aids,” but the report does not confirm widespread rumors (see here and here) that a 10-warhead DF-41 ICBM was test launched last year. All appeared to feed off this article. Many MIRV reports appear to confuse warheads with decoys and penetration aids.

该报告还复述了去年关于“中国可能会研发”新式公路机动型洲际导弹的报告,该导弹可能“有能力”携带多弹头独立重返大气层载具<MIRV>。过去几十年,美国情报部门对中国开发和部署这种导弹<MIRV>的能力进行了评估,但它目前还未研发出来。报告中有句话能清楚说明该武器与之前的变化“这种新一代机动式导弹携带多弹头<MIRV>和突防装置”。但这份报告没有证实一个众所周知的传言,即去年中国已试射可携带10个弹头的东风-41型洲际导弹。许多关于MIRV的报告都将其与携带诱饵弹和突防辅助装置的弹头混淆。

The report does not provide an update of nuclear medium-range missiles, except confirming that a few aging liquid-fuel DF-3As are still operational. They will likely be retired within the next few years.

报告没有提及中程核导弹的升级改进情况。只是证实有少量老旧的东风3A型液体燃料导弹还在服役,不过这些导弹可能会在未来几年内退出现役。

As one would imagine, the new and increasingly mobile missile force requires updating the command and control system. The DOD report states that China has done so and states that “improved communications links” means that “the ICBM units now have better access to battlefield information, uninterrupted communications connecting all command echelons, and the unit commanders are able to issue orders to multiple subordinates at once, instead of serially via voice commands.”

与我们设想的一样,新增的机动式导弹需要升级其指挥控制系统。国防部报告称,中国正在这样做,他们声称“改良的通讯数据链接”将使“导弹部队能够更好地获取战场信息。不间断的数据通讯能覆盖所有指挥单元。指挥官有能力将命令一次下达多个作战单元。无需用电话来一次次下达指令。

At the same time, further increases in the number of mobile ICBMs, the DOD report states, “will force the PLA to implement more sophisticated command and control systems and processes that safeguard the integrity of nuclear release authority for a larger, more dispersed force.”

国防部报告称:与此同时,解放军进一步增加其机动式洲际导弹的数量,这促使他们采用更先进复杂的指挥系统,来确保这一更庞大,更分散的核打击体系的完整性。

Sea-Based Nuclear Forces 海基核力量

The DOD report states that China has added a third Jin-class (Type 094) SSBN to its fleet and that two more are in various stages of construction. Their nuclear ballistic missile, the Julang-2, is not yet operational, however, but the report indicates that has missile program has overcome technical difficulties, completed a series of successful testing in 2012, and appears ready to reach initial operational capability in 2013.

国防部报告称,中国第三艘晋级(094型)弹道导弹核潜艇已经入列,还有2艘或更多在建,各自建造阶段不同。为它们配备的巨浪-2型弹道导弹,还未列装。然而有情报表明其导弹项目已经克服技术困难,于2012年成功完成一系列试验。该型导弹可能于2013年实现初步作战能力。

There is no confirmation of the rumor that the JL-2 has a capability to carry multiple warheads.

不过,没有确切消息证实巨浪-2可携带多弹头。

The single Xia-class (Type 92) SSBN that China built back in the early 1980s has never been fully operational. It is still afloat, moored at the Jianggezhuang naval base near Qingdao in the Shandong province. The boat will likely be retired, along with its Julang-1 SLBMs, once the Jin-class SSBNs become fully operational.

中国在上世纪80年代建造的唯一的一艘夏级弹道导弹核潜艇,从未真正执行过任务。它目前呈上浮状态。停泊在山东青岛附近的姜各庄海军基地。一旦晋级核潜艇正式服役,这艘潜艇可能会与其搭载的巨浪-1型潜射弹道导弹一同退役。

Moreover, the report predicts that China within the next decade might begin construction of a new class of SSBNs, known as the Type 096. If so, that suggests that the Jin-class design may not have been considered a success.

此外,该报告预测,中国可能在未来十年内建造被称为096级的新型弹道导弹核潜艇。如果是这样的话,那就意味着晋级核潜艇的设计并不成功。

A Jin-class (top) ballistic missile submarine and Shang-class attack submarine are seen docked at the naval base near Longpo on Hainan Island in this DigitalGlobe/GoogleEarth satellite image from June 27, 2012. Jin-class SSBN were first seen at Hainan in February 2008.

(上图)停泊在海南岛龙湾海军基地的晋级弹道导弹核潜艇和商级攻击核潜艇-----采自2012年6月谷歌地球卫星数字图像。2008年2月,晋级弹道导弹核潜艇首次被发现存在。

Once fully operational, the DOD report states, SSBNs based at Hainan Island “would then be able to conduct nuclear deterrence patrols.” But now China will operate the SSBN fleet remains to be seen. It might begin to mimic deterrence patrols of other nuclear weapon states, but it seems unlikely that China will begin to deploy nuclear-armed missiles on its SSBNs under normal circumstance because the Central Military Commission is unlikely to hand over nuclear warheads to the armed forces unless in an emergency.

国防部报告称,一旦正式部署,驻守在海南的弹道导弹核潜艇便“有能力进行核威慑巡航”。但距中国正式部署弹道导弹核潜艇部队还有待时日。它或许会模仿那些有战略潜艇值班任务的拥核国家。不过中国不太可能常态部署携带核武器的战略核潜艇。因为除紧急情况下,中央军委不会将核弹头移交给武装部队。

Moreover, Chinese SSBNs are relatively noisy (see graph below) and vulnerable to enemy anti-submarine capabilities, so it seems contrary to China’s core strategic objective of protecting its retaliatory nuclear capability to send some of it out to sea where it can be sunk by enemy attack submarines.

此外,中国的战略核潜艇噪音实在太大(见下图),容易受到敌方反潜力量攻击。因此它不符合中国的核心战略目标,即确保其报复性水下核反击能力<二次打击能力>,这种潜艇会被敌方的攻击潜艇击沉。

This vulnerability is compounded by the fact that Chinese SSBNs have never conducted a deterrence patrol (see below), which makes the Chinese navy woefully inexperienced in operating an SSBN effectively and safely.

让其弱点凸显的是,中国的战略核潜艇从未进行过威慑式巡航。这使得中国海军大大缺乏使用这种核潜艇的经验,难以保证它的安全。

Data obtained from U.S. Naval Intelligence under the Freedom of Information Act shows that Chinese missile submarines have never conducted a deterrent patrol. The attack submarine fleet is more active, with patrols having more than quadrupled over the past decade from around four per year to approximately eighteen patrols last year (see graph).

在《信息自由法案》框架下获的美国海军情报数据显示,中国的导弹潜艇从未进行过核威慑巡航。而攻击潜艇群活动比较频繁。与过去10年平均每年4次巡逻相比,去年的巡逻次数达十八次。足足是以往的四倍还多。(见下表)

The increase in general-purpose submarine patrols has coincided with the introduction of the Chang-class (Type 093) nuclear-powered attack submarine (SSN) from 2005, but probably also reflects operations by more advanced diesel-electric submarines. The introduction of Type 093 SSNs has been slow, however, with only two in service and four improved version under construction to replace the remaining aging first-generation Han-class (Type 091) class SSNs.

在常规潜艇巡逻数量增加的同时,商级核攻击潜艇(093型)于2005年建成。这也意味着有更先进的柴电潜艇问世。093型核潜艇的生产比较缓慢。只有两艘在役,四艘改进型在建,以替代那些老旧的首代汉级核攻击潜艇(091型)。

Within the next decade, the DOD report predicts, China will likely begin construction of a new class of nuclear-powered attack submarines (Type 096), which might be equipped with land-attack cruise missiles.

美国国防部预测,未来十年,中国可能会建造新型核动力攻击潜艇(096级),它们会配备陆基巡航导弹。

Air-Based Nuclear Forces 空基核力量

The DOD report does not explicitly credit the Chinese air force with a nuclear capability but it probably has a limited secondary mission with nuclear gravity bombs. The H-6 medium-range bomber was used to carry out a dozen nuclear tests in the 1970s and 1980s.

国防部报告称,目前尚无确切情报证实中国有空基核力量。不过它可能拥有有限能力去执行次要的,投放普通核弹的任务。上世纪七八十年代,其轰-6中程轰炸机就被用来执行过多次核试验。

The report states that China is modifying the H-6 to “a new variant that possesses greater range and will be armed with a long-range cruise missile.” Elsewhere the report states that H-6 upgrades “may provide the capability to carry new, longer-range cruise missiles.” So whether the H-6 upgrades involve one or more types of long-range cruise missiles is a little unclear.

报告指出,中国正在改进它的轰-6,“新改型可携带远程巡航导弹,能够长程奔袭,参与作战”。报告的其它部分称,轰-6升级版能携带新型远程巡航导弹,而所关联到的这种或多种的远程巡航导弹的情报,尚不清楚。

So far the air-launched cruise missiles have not been credited with nuclear capability, although the ground-launched DH-10 (which is not mentioned in the DOD report) was described as “conventional or nuclear” by the Air Force National Air and Space Intelligence Center in 2009.

到目前为止,它的空射巡航导弹还无可携带核弹头的迹象。尽管2009年空军国家航空航天情报中心将陆基的东海-10(国防部报告未提及)描述为“常规导弹或核导弹”。

Conclusions and Implications 总结

Chinese nuclear modernizations continue with modest pace with focus on safeguarding a retaliatory capability by replacing land-based liquid-fuel missiles with solid-fuel versions, increasing mobile ICBMs, and building a small fleet of ballistic missile submarines.

中国的核武库现代化继续保持其温和式发展。重点在于如何维护其核反击力量、陆基固体燃料导弹替换其液体燃料导弹、增加机动式洲际弹道导弹数量,并组建小规模弹道导弹潜艇部队。

The size of the ICBM force appears to be leveling out for now, although more may be deployed in the future. And once the 36 JL-2 SLBMs on the three Jin-class SSBNs become operational, they will increase the Chinese nuclear ballistic missile force by approximately 27 percent compared with the current inventory.

洲际弹道导弹力量目前还停滞不前。尽管将来会部署更多。一旦搭载有总计36枚巨浪-2型潜射导弹的3艘晋级弹道导弹核潜艇正式列装,中国的弹道导弹实力较当前将增强约27%。

Yet because older types are also being retired, the impact on the size of the total nuclear weapons stockpile so far appears to be modest. Earlier this year, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Global Affairs, Madelyn Creedon, testified before the Senate that despite China’s nuclear force modernizations, “we estimate that it has not substantially increased its nuclear warhead stockpile in the past year…” Moreover, STRATCOM Commander General Kehler last year rejected claims by some that China has hundreds or thousands more nuclear weapons than the “several hundred” estimated by the U.S. Intelligence Community.

由于老款导弹会退役。到目前为止,它的核武器储备数量以及其影响,似乎还算是适度的。今年早些时候,负责全球防务的助理国防部长马德林·克里登在参议院举证说,“尽管中国核武库正实现现代化,但我们估计,过去的一年内,它并未大幅增加其核弹头存量。”此外,美国战略司令部司令科勒否认了美国情报部门关于中国有数百甚至数千枚核弹头的说法。

The complete deletion of the table overview of China’s missile forces is striking because the Pentagon for years has been complaining about a lack of transparency in China’s military modernization. Ironically, this complaint was repeated when the Pentagon briefed this year’s report. Said Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for East Asia, David Helvey:

全面删除概述中国弹道力量的表单,这实在令人注目。因为五角大楼多年来一直抱怨中国军力现代化缺乏透明度。具有讽刺意味的是,这一抱怨与五角大楼的年度报告相照应。美国国防部助理副部长大卫·海尔韦这样说:

“So what – what concerns me – is the extent to which China’s military modernization occurs in – in the absence of the type of openness and transparency that others are certainly asking of China and the potential implications and consequences of that lack of transparency on the security calculations of others in the region. And so it’s that uncertainty, I think, that’s of greater concern.”

那么,我们关注的是,中国军力现代化到了怎样一个程度,在缺乏公开性和透明性的情况下,其它人自然要关心,要询问对于该区域的其它国家,中国潜在的威胁性。正因为它不明确,不可靠,我认为,这必须引发我们的担忧。

Instead of assisting Chinese nuclear secrecy, the United States should push for transparency and accountability. Authoritative overviews of Chinese nuclear force developments are important to enable the public to assess implications of China’s nuclear modernization and to counter attempts by those who use the uncertainty created by lack of information to hype the threat in order to justify excessive military spending.

美国应该推行透明度问责制,而不是帮中国保密。权威概述中国核力量的发展,这十分有必要。从而使公众了解和正确评价中国的核武库现代化进程。那些为了证明军费过度支出合理,来大肆炒作中国威胁论的行径该得到反对。[原创翻译] 中国核武器发展综述--美国国防部报道

[原创翻译] 中国核武器发展综述--美国国防部报道

[原创翻译] 中国核武器发展综述--美国国防部报道

[原创翻译] 中国核武器发展综述--美国国防部报道


[ 转自铁血社区 http://bbs.tiexue.net/ ]

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热门评论

别傻了,中国现在还生活在石器时代,哪儿有空想什么核弹啊,真是。

通讯基本靠吼,交通基本靠走,治安基本靠狗,取暖基本靠抖,娱乐基本靠手,穿衣基本靠纺,吃饭基本靠党,致富基本靠抢,讨老婆基本靠想,治病基本靠躺。

你看到的J20什么的都是浮云啊浮云,纸老虎啊,天朝这没有核弹,没有潜艇,没有J10,没有J11,没有红旗9,没有052D,没有什么DF-31,没有99A2,卫士-2,卫士-3,神鹰-400,WZ-10,天燕-90,PL-13,PL-16,鹰击-12,HHQ-9A,长剑-10,红鸟-3,DF-21D,SC-19,DN-2,都是纸糊的啊纸糊的,一点就燃啊混蛋,还有那啥神经病反卫星导弹,DN-2啊,等你啊等你2啊!!还有那个啥死光A超远距离高能激光武器,我艹,纯TM意淫啊!!还有那狗日的空警2000,就特么用美帝的空警换个肚子拍的啊混蛋!!!

天啊,要小太爷咋活啊,美帝大人,赶紧把你丫航母都开咱这来解放咱吧。顺便咱也欢迎一下日本子登陆共建大东亚共荣圈啊!!赶紧来啊!!我请大家喝孟婆汤啊混蛋!!!

 以下是引用hlp50277 在第3楼的发言:
嘘!我悄悄的告诉你,中国一颗核弹都没有,连60年代的爆炸都是假的,远程导弹里面都装的是石灰或者面粉,导弹都是一个铁皮裹的圆形,所有看到的导弹发射画面都是PS或者动画做出来的。。。。。。。。。。


我一直在想一件事!如果一个国家的重要军事机密比如:核弹数目,随便那个国家都能知道有多少的话,还能形成威慑吗?如果我是美国相关负责人既然我都能知道中国有多少核弹,又都分布在什么地方,我TM还成天出什么中国军力报告或者中国核力量报告吗?

还有如果我们的这些机密都被人知道的一清二楚了,军队会没有动作,政府难道觉得无所谓。

反正换做是我就算知道了也不会大张旗鼓的说出来,留在关键时刻给你来个后院起火,因该更划算!

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