印度人视觉:印度落后中国多少年

印度人视觉:印度落后中国多少年

2012年03月07日 ⁄ 印度人看中国 ⁄ 评论数 70 ⁄ 被围观 241,971+

印度Rediff网发表了T N Ninan撰写的一篇文章,称印度一小群人在讨论印度落后中国多少,得出来的结果是10年至25年以上。作者从GDP、识字率、预期寿命、出口、基础设施等方面,对中国和印度进行了比较。文章最后得出结论:停止将两国相提并论,抛弃“中印”说法。那么印度人如何看中印差距呢?让我们看看印度网民的评论。

The debate in a small group earlier this week was about how far India is behind China. The quick numbers tossed out varied all the way from 10 to 25 years and more.

Figuring out the gap between the two "rising giants of Asia" is in fact an instructive study.

For instance, China's GDP in 2011 was $6.99 trillion, or nearly four times India's $1.84 trillion.

If the Indian economy were to grow at an annual average of 7.8 per cent (the rate for the past decade), it would take 18 years to get to China's current size. If growth were to accelerate to nine per cent, it would still take 15 years.

Could India have avoided falling so far behind China?

After all, when China began its Four Modernisations in 1978, the two economies were of roughly the same size ($145-148 billion).

Even in 1991, when India began its reforms, China's economy was only 40 per cent bigger than India's $268 billion.

The answer is that, in many ways, India in 1991 was already two decades and more behind China on key indicators, and it has not closed the gap.

本周初,一小群人争论印度落后中国多少。结果很快出来,落后10年至25年以上。

事实上,弄清两个“正在崛起的亚洲巨人”之间的差距是一项有益的研究。

比如,中国2011年的GDP是6.99万亿美元,或者说是印度1.84万亿美元的4倍。

如果印度经济以年平均7.8%的速度发展(过去10年的速度),印度需要18年的时间才能达到中国目前的规模。如果发展速度加快到9%,印度仍然需要15年。

印度是否本可以避免落后中国如此多?

毕竟,当中国于1978年开始四个现代化的时候,两个经济体的规模大约相等(1450亿美元至1480亿美元)。

甚至在1991年,当印度开始改革的时候,中国经济只比印度2680亿美元的经济大40%。

答案是,印度1991年就已经在主要的指标上落后中国二十年以上。差距并没有弥合。

印度古吉拉特邦萨南德无水港(原文图片)

For instance, China's literacy rate in 1991 was 78 per cent, whereas India's was just 52 per cent.

Even today, India's literacy rate, at 74 per cent, is short of where China's was in 1991; meanwhile, China has moved ahead to 94 per cent literacy.

Ditto with life expectancy; China's in 1991 was 70 years.

Twenty years later, India had a tally of only 64 years. Of course, China's life expectancy has improved slowly in the last two decades, and is at 73; still, it will take India two decades and more to get to that figure.

Some seemingly large gaps might be closed more quickly. Thus, China's goods exports are about six times India's.

However, India's exports have multiplied nearly seven-fold in the last decade (from $43.8 billion to an expected $300 billion this year), so it could conceivably replicate China's current export figure in less than 10 years.

No such hope can be applied to industry, where too China's is more than six times India's.

比如,中国1991年的识字率是78%,而印度只有52%。

甚至在今天,印度的识字率是74%,比1991年的中国还低。与此同时,中国识字率已经进步到94%。

预期寿命也类似。中国的这个指标在1991年是70岁。

20年后,印度的统计显示只有64岁。当然,中国在过去20年的预期寿命缓慢提高,现在是73岁。印度需要20年以上才能达到那个数据。

某些看起来大的差距可能快速弥合。迄今,中国产品出口大约是印度的6倍。

然而,印度的出口在过去10年里几乎增加了7倍(从438亿美元增加到今年预期的3000亿美元),所以,可以想象的是,印度可能在不到10年里达到中国目前的出口额。

这样的期望并不适用于工业。中国的工业也是印度的6倍多。

印度北方邦一家机车厂(原文图片)

Move to research, and China has a citation index that is twice as good as India's.

In the space programme, China sent its first man into space in 2003; India hopes to do it in 2015, but is likely to take longer.

As for infrastructure, China has more than 30,000 km of expressways on which traffic speeds go up to 120 kmph; India has a few hundred kilometres.

China has a whole inter-city network of high-speed trains, five times as many Internet users, and nearly a million MW of power generation capacity.

India has only fractionally increased its train speeds since the first Rajdhani Express of 1969, and even if the country doubles power generation capacity every decade, starting from 150,000 MW in 2010, it will take more than a quarter century to get to where China is today.

谈到研究,中国的引文索引质量是印度的两倍。

在太空项目,中国于2003年首次将人送入太空。印度希望在2015年将人送入太空,但可能需要更久。

至于基础设施,中国有超过3万公里速度达到120公里每小时的高速公路。印度只有几百公里。

中国有一整套城际高铁网络,网民数是印度的5倍,发电能力接近100万兆瓦。

自从首列拉吉德哈尼特快在1969年运营以来,印度只是部分提高火车速度。从2010年的15万兆瓦为起点,即使印度发电能力每十年翻一番,印度将需要25年以上才能达到中国今天的发电能力。

中国农村(原文图片)

As for agriculture, China applies fully three times the fertiliser per arable hectare that India does.

The smallest gap is in the mobile phone population. And the largest gap perhaps in the quality of political leadership - China is able to produce a new crop of top-rung leaders every decade, in Beijing and in the provinces and large cities, whereas India's political parties offer little beyond an upper crust.

China's project execution is of course in a league of its own. As for sport, India got one gold medal in the last Olympics, China got 51.

The cold message to all Indians: stop talking of the two countries in the same breath, and dump the "Chindia" coinage.

For why does India not bracket itself with Iran, whose economic size in relation to India (1:4) is broadly the same as India's to China?

至于农业,中国每公顷可耕地施用的化肥整整是印度的三倍。

手机用户数的差距最小。最大的差距可能是政治领导层的素质差距——中国每十年能在北京、各省和各大城市培养出新一代的最高领导人。而印度的政党培养的只是上流社会。

中国的项目执行肯定是独创一格的。至于体育,印度在上一届奥运会获得一枚金牌,中国获得了51枚。

这些对于所有印度人来说是冰冷的信息:停止将两国相提并论,抛弃“中印”说法。

印度不和经济规模只有自己四分之一的伊朗归为一类的原因,大体上与印度不和中国归为一类的原因相同?

以下是印度网民评论

Reality is

by Amit (View MyPage) on Jan 29, 2012 01:50 PM

I happened to visit china ... and forget about being a decade or two behind china -- we are atleast 200 years behind them ... and by the time we reach their current level in next 200 years -- china will be 500 years ahead of us ... you just cant compare teh malls, infrasturcuture, roads, vehicles, tech savvy people.. though people have some issues ..

我正好访问了中国...别说落后中国十年或者二十年左右——我们至少落后他们200年...当我们200年后达到他们目前水平的时候——中国将领先我们500年...虽然那里的人们有某些问题...不过在商场、基础设施、公路、汽车、精通科技的人才等方面,你无法进行比较...

原创翻译:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com


China and India

by kuldeep jain (View MyPage) on Jan 29, 2012 11:24 AM

I was lucky enough to see China and whatever you say it will take lot of time to India to match its strength.

Frinds if a country is supplying goods to whole WORLD then admit that it will have some thing which we dont have.

we import telecom , milatry ships , space technology , aircraft from abroad but never try to make them our own but China has this vision. we as IT supoer power work in top most companies of world but did we made any google or microsoft? ( china has his own searh engine Baidu)

and recently they launched their own GPS. they made their own aircraft, bullet train.

we think that every one has go a mobile phone and that is progress but China is putting his name as top most telecom technoloy supplier..

we should learn from them this things..

我有幸去了中国。不管怎么说,印度需要很长时间才能匹配中国实力。朋友们,如果一个国家为全世界供应产品,那就应该承认这个国家具备一些我们并不具备的。我们从国外进口电信设备、军舰、太空技术、飞机,但我们从来不自己努力生产,中国则有这样的远见。我们作为IT大国,在世界顶级公司工作。但是我们有创造自己的谷歌或者微软吗?(中国有自己的百度搜索引擎)他们最近推出了自己的GPS。他们自主生产了飞机、高铁。

每个人都有了一部手机,我们认为这是个进步。但是,中国正在成为顶级电信技术供应国。我们应该向他们学习这些东西。


This is another problem with we indians

by Sigma Refrigeration (View MyPage) on Jan 28, 2012 12:07 PM

We usually miscalculate many such things.

India can be grouped with Pak, Bangla, Nepal , Srilanks, and the likes

It does not make a group with China

Considering the pace of growth parameters in India we are around 100 yrs behind what China is today.

我们通常算错了许多这样的事情。印度并不是和中国同一类的,应该和巴基斯坦、孟加拉国、尼泊尔、斯里兰卡等那样的国家归成一类。考虑到印度的发展速度,我们今天大约落后中国100年。


Crappy Report

by blogger (View MyPage) on Jan 27, 2012 02:50 PM | Hide replies

China had never sent anybody to the space on its own spacecraft. Shenzhou-V is a scam, and they taped it in underwater environment.

中国从来没有通过自己的飞船将人送上太空。神州五号是个骗局。他们是在水下拍摄的。


This is selective comparison between India & China!

by Ravi (View MyPage) on Jan 26, 2012 12:40 PM

Then why China talks about US in the same brackets. The authors message to India applies to China too. Point is taken that India has a lot more to do to reach where China is today.

(这是印度和中国之间的有选择性比较!)为什么中国要同比讨论美国。作者传递给印度的信息也同样适合中国。有一点很清楚,为了达到中国今天的位置,印度还有很多事情要做。


BUT CHINA DEPENDS ON INDIA TO SELL JUNK PRODUCTS

by Amarnath Acharya (View MyPage) on Jan 25, 2012 07:04 PM | Hide replies

China May be big, powerful, more developed but it will require India's support to be in that position as China markets its products here, They will progress so long as we buy their junk products, and we Indians buy their products from pencils to Refrigerators without thinking wnat will happen to Indian Products and Indian companies manufacturing them. We Indian finally blame Political system for evey thing and are not ready to take responsibility at individual capacity. Team team anna, Baba Ramdevs to preach people to stop buying cheap Chinese products

中国也许强大,也许更发达。由于中国在印度卖产品,所以中国所处的位置需要印度的支持。只要我们购买他们的垃圾产品,他们就会进步。我们印度人从他们那里购买的产品涵盖铅笔到冰箱的所有东西,我们从不考虑这会对印度产品和生产这些产品的印度公司带来什么影响。最终,我们印度人将一切归咎于政治制度,却并不准备承担自己的个人责任。安纳、巴巴·拉德维团队应该鼓吹人们停止购买廉价中国货。


We should compare with Bangldesh & Pakistan

by reetam (View MyPage) on Jan 24, 2012 06:49 PM

India is far behind china atleas by 2o years or more. We can only comapre with Pakistan & Bangldesh.

印度至少落后中国20年。我们只能与巴基斯坦和孟加拉国比较。


how far really lag?

by big Joke (View MyPage) on Jan 24, 2012 05:54 PM

In terms of development infrust....and human index, I would say at least 50 years. In other words, if pause china now, it may take 50 years for India to catch. Say we just look at a China inner city (not coast cities), like:Chongging, do you really think India will/can build a city like this in 50 years?

Youtube yourslef: "bird's eye view chongqing"

在基础设施发展和人类指数方面,我要说的是印度至少落后50年。换句话说,如果中国现在停止发展,印度可能需要50年才能赶上。我们说的只是中国内陆城市(不是沿海城市),比如重庆。你们真的认为印度在50年后能建设那样一座城市吗?

自己看Youtube:“鸟瞰重庆”。



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5楼789005

中国从来没有通过自己的飞船将人送上太空。神州五号是个骗局。他们是在水下拍摄的。

呵呵。比较欣赏这位。

有很多印度人认识到中印之间的差距,并深刻反思过去的发展道路,这才是中国必须警惕的,一个谦虚向前的印度远比一个夜郎自大的印度更加危险。

宗教主义和种姓制度是印度发展不可逾越的两个障碍,只要这两项顽疾一天不废除,印度就不可能有真正意义上的发展。而对中国而言,目前最大的问题是信仰危机,我们讲了几十年的解放思想,但解放思想的过程中,摒弃了过去的信仰、而没有建立新的信仰,这才导致了当前国内思想的混乱,这是国内各种乱象的根源。因此,当前中国的首要任务是价值观的重建,但这不是三年五年可以完成的,需要一两代人的努力。当然,新的价值观的建立,与经济的发展有着必然的联系,当一个人从贫穷到富有,当经历财富爆发式的增长后,过度的反差会造成其价值观的扭曲,这是人的本性,不是一句简单的教育问题能解决的。就像北京很多拆迁的居民,徒然拥有了几百万的财富,便不加节制的挥霍,短短两年便又回到原点,这样的例子屡见不鲜,而其他人对此却不但不引以为戒,反而极其羡慕,一心盼望着能够通过拆迁一夜暴富。这种心态,难道是学校教育的问题吗?我们现在最缺乏的不是财富,而是对财富的驾驭能力,这些不是学校能学习到的。

 以下是引用kingjack 在第9楼的发言:
印度人也不都是那么无知嘛,这些人挺明白的,但是他们有点太看低自己了,印度至少有一点比中国强,那就是他们的教育质量,印度接受过正规高等教育的人才的素质不是国内能比的。中国的教育仍然只是普及率高而已,本身质量不行(小学校长迷奸小学生的事最近真轰动,可想而知中国的教育体系内是些什么人,而CCAV却说是小学生主动拉校长开房,真奇葩,这种骗傻子的说法只有天朝的媒体才说的出口,另外有80后的朋友在小学时有没被学校恶意收过不明名目的钱的吗?)。而且中国的污染也是十分夸张,环保局从来的都是摆设,连自己的首都都是......

13楼tdnb1

咱能别整天和印度比行不?我比咱们村最懒的二流子富,很骄傲吗?

 以下是引用789005 在第5楼的发言:
中国从来没有通过自己的飞船将人送上太空。神州五号是个骗局。他们是在水下拍摄的。

呵呵。比较欣赏这位。

当笑话看看就行了,还有不少人认为老美登月是假的,想不到我们也有轮到被人这样说得一天,这是好事!!!

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