印度,下一个超级大国?不太可能!

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导读:转自:龙腾网 翻译:福禄寿禧 India a superpower? Unlikely, says London School of Economics study 印度,下一个超级大国?不太可能! superpower-state-hillary-clinton-lse   LONDON: Despite "impressive" achievements in various sectors in recent years, India is unlikely to be
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转自:龙腾网 翻译:福禄寿禧


India a superpower? Unlikely, says London School of Economics study

印度,下一个超级大国?不太可能!

superpower-state-hillary-clinton-lse

LONDON: Despite "impressive" achievements in various sectors in recent


years, India is unlikely to be a superpower and in fact, should not aspire


to become one, a study by the London School of Economics (LSE) has


concluded.

The study, titled ’India: The Next Superpower?’, recalls and dismisses


US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s statement made during her visit to


India in 2009 that "I consider India not just a regional power, but a global


power".

The LSE study comprising essays by nine experts in the areas of India’s


economy, defence, government, culture, environment and society advises


"caution in assessing India’s claim to superpower status".

Ramachandra Guha, currently the Philippe Roman Chair in History and


International Affairs at the LSE, argues that it is doubtful whether India


should seek to become a superpower.

He cites seven reasons why India will not become a superpower.

These are: "The challenge of the Naxalites; the insidious presence of


the Hindutvawadis; the degradation of the once liberal and upright Centre;


the increasing gap between the rich and the poor; the trivialisation of the


media; the unsustainability, in an environmental sense, of present patterns


of resource consumption; the instability and policy incoherence caused by


multi-party coalition governments", he writes.

Listing India’s several achievements that prompted predictions and


ambitions in some quarters about India being the next superpower, the study


goes on to discuss several challenges that are likely to prevent India from


realising such ambitions.

It says: "Still, for all India’s success, its undoubted importance and


despite its undisputed potential, there is cause for caution in assessing


India’s claim to superpower status.

"India still faces major developmental challenges. The still-entrenched


divisions of caste structure are being compounded by the emergence of new


inequalities of wealth stemming from India’s economic success".

The study adds: "India’s democracy may have thrived in a manner that


few ever expected, but its institutions face profound challenges from


embedded nepotism and corruption.

"India’s economic success continues to come with an environmental cost


that is unsustainable".

Moreover, the study says that India has pressing security


preoccupations, but sees the country continuing to play a constructive


international role in, among other things, the financial diplomacy of the


G20.

尽管印度近年来在各方面取得的成就令人钦佩,但印度不大可能成为超级大国,事


实上,印度也不应该渴望成为超级大国。英国伦敦政治经济学院经过研究后得出以上结


论。

这项研究的题目是:“印度会是下一个超级大国吗?”研究人员回顾了美国务卿西


拉里09年访问印度时说的话:“我认为印度不仅仅是一个地区性大国,而且是一个全球


性大国”。可研究人员对这番话嗤之以鼻。

英国伦敦经济学院的这项研究报告由9位专家提交的论文组成,内容涉及到印度的


经济、国防、政府、文化、环境和社会。建议“谨慎评估印度超级大国的地位”

目前在英国伦敦政治经济学院从事历史及国事务研究的印度学者古哈教授争辩说,


印度是不是要追求超级大国地位,值得怀疑。

他列出了印度不能成为超级大国的七大理由:

1. 来自(印度共产党的)纳萨尔派的挑战;

2. 阴险的印度教派的出现。

3. 自由和正直的堕落

4. 贫富差距拉大

5. 媒体煽阴风点鬼火

6. 从环保角度讲,现有的资源消费模式不具持续性

7. 多党联合政府导致不稳定及政策的不连贯

该研究列出了印度在某些领域取得的若干重大成就,这些成就表明了印度想成为下


一个超级大国的雄心壮志,但也讨论了印度可能面临的几大挑战。

报告指出:虽然印度是取得了成功,其重要性勿用置疑,其潜力无可争辩,但在评


估印度保持超级大国的地位时,我们有理由保持谨慎。

“印度依然面临发展的重大挑战。种性制度依然根深蒂固,现在又因经济的成功而


出现了新的财富分配不公。

研究报告补充说:印度的民主也可能会按极少数人料想的那样发展了,但其社会制


度却面临着极大挑战,如裙带关系,还有腐败。

印度经济的成功,会继续以牺牲环境为代价,这是不可持续的。

该研究说,印度还极担心安全问题,不过认为在20国集团的大国金融外交中,印度


还是能起到积极作用的。



以下是网民的评论:


Andrew Mohan Charles (Kerala)

The question is does any Indian truly crave to be a Superpower? Does any


Indian truly want to spend all he has on arming himself against shadows in


the night? That is something we would gladly leave to the West - its


paranoid delusions that it sells to its citizens. I would prefer to get a


relief from the noise with all that honking on the roads an unfortunate


result of us taking in taking in inappropriate technology when we know


naught about using it.

问题是印度真地渴望成为超级大国吗?有哪个印度人想倾其所有武装自己以应对黑


夜的幽灵呢?我们尽管把这样的事儿留给西方,这就是他们向公民百姓兜售的精神狂想


症。我宁可远离这样的喧嚣,不想看到这样的结果,说我们引进了不值当的技术,引进


来了根本就不知道怎么用。

For India to becmoe superpower we just need two consecutive governments


which focus on growth. Indians have learned to live happily with the caste


system. There are minor incodents but no one cares for that. Having said


that the above essay writer looks like a book worm who has read the books


written in 80’s and early 90’s. The outloook of current generation who are


less than 30 is more modern than that of many developed nations. Outdated


essay and outdated discussion to decrease indian confidence.

印度要想当超级大国,只需连续两届政府集中精力谋发展,印度已经学会了过种性


制度下的幸福生活。也有少数事件发生,但没人在乎这个,我说过,上面这文章的作者


是个书呆子,看的是上世纪80年代以及90年代早期的著作,现在30岁以下的这一代人世


界观比许多发达国家的人更现代。象这样过气的论文、陈芝麻乱叶式的讨论只会消磨印


度人的自信心。

Fire Marshal Bill (USA)

Brilliant and accurate! To this, the same tired, old, "sour grapes"


cacophony from the misguided clueless is "who wants to be a superpower"?


Instead of recognizing the inherent corruption, political skulduggery,


stalemates in almost everything India, rampant selfishness and the caste


system dragging down everything, all I hear is the knee-jerk whining! Start


with - yourself and resolve to stay away from bribery and corruption! It


starts with One! That is the first step in preventing India being a laughing


stock of the world. Then, throw out corrupt politicians. That’ll do you a


whole lot of good! After that, there is a plethora of work in order to prove


the LSE wrong!

说的太好了,相当准确!因为无厘头的误导而产生的陈旧的“酸葡萄”论调,那就


是“谁想成为超级大国?”。这种说法既陈旧又让人厌恶。印度没有认识到生生不息的


腐败,政治上的尔虞我诈,还有几乎所有的事都停滞不前。极度的自私和种性制度拖累


了印度。我听到的就是老套的满腹牢骚,说什么从自我做起,下决心远离贿赂和腐败!


依我看,就从一件事做起,这样印度才不至于沦为全世界的笑柄。然后呢,把那些个腐


败的政客都扔出去,这对你们是大大的有好处。然后再要费九牛二虎之力来证明伦敦政


治经济学院的说法是错的。


Mickey (Delhi)

London School of Economics accepted donations from the Libyan dictator


Gaddaffi and honored Saif Gaddaffi with an honorary degree demonstrating


poor judgment. I wouldn’t worry too much about their studies and findings.

伦敦政治经济学院接收利比亚独裁者喀扎菲的献金,而给他一个荣誉学位,这表明


,伦敦政治经济学院判断力是何其的差得可怜。所以我为不太在乎他们的研判。


jj (asia)

It is a truth that india to become super power. Becuase we are not


organized and lack a potential leader to do so. It is a reality and we


should agree. It is not the british to balem; it is our politicans who


should get the punishment

印度成不了超级大国,这是事实,因为我们是一盘散沙,没有具备潜力的领导人。


我们应该认同这个现实,这不怪英国人,该受处罚的是我们的政客。

True, see what politicians r doing in the back door, sand mafia,etc...


every state these r there, see 2g scam how nicely the bribed money is


brought in to india as investment... These are the examples, we Indians are


not capable of managing our independance. Corruptiion is mounting to the


peak all over the states. Govt supports the big mistakes done by corporates


as we see in 2G saying there was no corruption

是的,没错。你就看看那些政客们在暗地里干了些什么勾当,在各省各地,都是如


此,你瞧这2G骗局,那些受贿的钱是怎么堂而皇之的进入了印度的投资领域的。。。。


这些就是例子,我们印度人没有了独立性,各省的腐败现象已是登峰造极,政府对那些


酿成大错的企业居然予以支持,还说什么没有腐败这回事。


OffensiveJ. Kumar (USA) replies to Vin

THAT is your response?! Really! THAT is your lamebrain response! Stop


throwing curry in the LSE’s face and think for a minute. Don’t attack the


LSE - think of what the LSE is _saying_ and realize that it is accurate. Or,


are you also caught up in the exaggerated, comical, volatile emotion of the


masses, so unique to India!

这就是你的反应?真的,这就是你脑瘫的反应!不要骂伦敦政治经济学院,好好想


想,想想它是怎么说的,你就会意识到它说的是对的。要不,你也和其它印度民众一样


,夸夸其谈,滑稽可笑,过度情绪化而无法自拔,对吧?印度可真是个独一枚的国家。


OffensiveDr. D (USA)

India will not become a Super Power because it has people like Rama


Chandra Guha who would sell their country down the drain for a two bit


temporary position at the London school of Economics. The first step towards


becoming a Super Power starts with shutting down all the institutions the


British left behind to corrupt and cripple India. Start with the IAS, then


St. Stephens college in Delhi.

印度不会成为超级大国,因为有古哈教授这样的人,卖国求荣,以在伦敦政治经济


学院谋个临时差事,印度要成为超级大国,首先就应该把那些英国人留下来的那些机构


给废了,那些玩艺儿让印度腐败、而落下终身残废。先从IAS开刀,再把德里大学的圣


史蒂芬学院废了。

Shahid (Melbourne) replies to Dr. D

Right...Let’s also shut down the railways, the judiciary, the


bureaucracy, even a few industries that the British started, like tea


industry, cotton industry, and pretty much everything else. Oh...and the


British also melded around a thousand independent kingdoms to create a


country called India. Let’s revert to that as well. Amazing how idiotic


some people commenting here are...what is this obsession with being a


superpower? Improve the standard of living of each citizen, put a high value


on every citizen’s life, and you will be considered a superpower by


everyone...not by shouting "I am a superpower, I am a superpower" and


berating everyone who provides you a valid reason that you are not.

对呀,咱们把铁路,司法,官僚都废了,就连英国人开办的几个产业,如茶叶,棉


花等等,一切的一切,都搞它个鸡犬不留。噢,还有,英国人还把上干个独立王国撮合


成一个国家,叫做印度,咱们也将其倒回去,让那些小王国回归原位。在这儿留言的有


些人真TM白痴得可笑,迷恋超级大国是为什么?如果你们提高每个公民的生活水平,重


视公民的生命,那人人都认为你们是超级大国,而不是在那儿干嚎:“我是超级大国,


我是超级大国!”,而对那些证据确凿地说你们不是超级大国的人,也不要深恶痛绝,


大声斥责。


Anonymous (Chennai)

Lol Ram Guha is opinionated, but subjective utterances doesn’t qualify


as a study. In fact many people can do much better in coming up with 10 - 15


reasons in less than 5 minutes. My reasons. 1) India has too many languages


2) Coalition parties will lead to a stalemate in policy decisions 3) India


has too much reliance on agriculture 4) water scarcity would make india


crumble - too much dependance on rainfall 5) India’s balooning fiscal


deficit 6) Communist parties 7) populism will ensure more taxation and


drying up of funds 8) Lack of the innovation culture 9) Very few R&D


divisions 10) India’s young population may miss the digital revolution and


stay poor and rely on entitlements #Sarcasm

哈哈哈哈。。。古哈教授固执已见,主观臆断不足以称之为研究。实际上,很多人


比他做的更好,5分钟之内就可以找出10—15个理由。你瞧我给出的理由:

1. 印度语言太多

2. 多党制导致决策拖拉

3. 印度过度依赖农业

4. 缺水会让印度崩溃

5. 印度的财政赤字犹如澎涨的气球(随时可能爆炸)

6. 印度共产党的影响

7. 民粹主义会让赋税更重,资金枯绝

8. 缺少创新文化

9. 研发部门太少

10.印度年轻人错失数字革命良机,依旧一贫如洗耳,而靠政府补贴过日子。


Sundar (

if the fighter jet deal was given to european consortium then the


research result could have been different.......they seem desperte to beg


attention

如果当初印度把战斗机研究项目交给欧洲财团去作,那这篇报告研究的结果可能就


不一样了,。。。他们好象极想乞求关注。


HIlary says something in 2009 and the Eurpeon School does a study in


2012. Very funny

西拉里在2009年说印度是超级大国,而欧洲学院派在2012年做的这个研究却说的是


不可能,真有意思。


Mehul (Bengaluru)

Frankly, India’s only engine of growth has been its population. "Look


at us! we can reproduce faster any of you nutters out there." But that doesn


’t hand global power to

老实说,印度唯一的增长发动机就是人口,“你瞧我们,我们能繁殖复制你这样的


怪种,比任何人都快。”但是这是不会把世界大国的称号送到我们手上的。

OffensiveAjay (Baltimore) replies to Mehul

We don’t need weapons of mass destruction. WE ARE the weapons of mass


destruction! We are products of mass reproduction in fact!

我们不需发大规模杀伤性武器,我们本身就是大规模杀伤性武器!事实上,我们就


是大规模繁殖出来的产品!(哈哈哈哈,印度人自己都觉得人口太多,这个老几是来自


印度班加罗尔)


Kumar (Mumbai) replies to Marco Hsiao

And that is what they are more worried about. Being world power is not


sole right of white skinned people. India before Islam was indeed superpower


and had share of 24 percent of world GDP and going forward this will be


repeated as China is doing

这正是英国人担心的,做世界大国不只是白种人的特权,在***面前,印度确实


是一个超级大国,而且GDP占世界的24%,就象现在的中国一样,这种态势还会不断重现


。(这家伙来自孟买,可能是没读多少书,印度能占世界GDP的24%?)



(Varanasi, Uttar Pradesh)

Pretty clear message. The good thing is that the challenges ahead have


been identified clearly. The suggestion that India should not aspire to


become a superpower is demoralizing and all of us(Indians), both in home and


abroad should take it in our stride and work towards achieving the


rationally-impossible. Jai hind!!

说的很清楚,从好的来说,印度面临的挑战是明摆着的,说什么印度不要渴望成为


大国,只不过是说教而已,我们海内外所有的印度人都就争口气,好好干,达到可能实


现的目标。

Dishant (toronto) replies to Udayan

Dude, proud of you. That's an attitude

大哥,为你骄傲,这倒是一种正确的态度。

unless Indians (i) learn basic discpline, basic honesty and basic civic


sense (ii) stop being exploitable by greed and material goodies by other


other religious heads that has caused untold economic damage in the name of


religious freedom (in therwords shun pseudo secualrism) (iii) stop


worshipping political families and other enetrtainment celebrities, there is


absolutely no hope for Indians even to achieve hygene factors leave alone


power status. There is so much of exploitation of gullible, lawlessness,


indispline and all forsm of corruption everywhere. 56% live off hard work of


44% people. This is clearly unsustainable. In next 5 years, people will be


violent on roads, killing each other.

除非印度人做到以下几点:1。学会基本的原则,诚实还有基本的公民意识。2。不


要为贪婪我物欲所利诱,不要让其它地区宗教头目打着宗教自由的晃子暗中破坏经济,


。3。不要崇拜政治家庭和其娱乐名流。否则,印度人绝对连基本健康维持不了,更妄


谈什么大国地位了。到处存在欺骗上当,目无法纪,腐败成性。56%的人靠干苦力为生


,这明显是不可持续的,五年之内,人们会在马路暴动,相互残杀。


India (India)

see carefully the map of india in the pic...Time of India and India's


most popular news paper can do such type of serious mistakes..this is


unforgivable...Agree (29)

你好好看看图片上的印度地图。。印度最流行的报纸居然犯这样的错误,不能原谅

)

OffensiveMaddy (India) replies to India

They are doing this frequently.... are they get paid from china/pakis??

他们经常这么干,是不是收收了中国或是巴基斯坦的黑钱啊?

noor (saudi arabia)

India becoming Super Power with daily Power Cut of 8 Hours per day? Soul


Search!

印度每天停电8个小时还想当超级大国呀?脑子进水了。(这是一沙特网友说的)

indian (india)

It is 'Will of the Leaders & People' that contributes to 'Soul of the


Nation' Both should sacrifice - Former for unending Quest for power Latter


for unending Quest for Luxury. In western nations or even in China we do not


hear of leaders once they demit office. Here leaders continue to fight


elections until their Last Breath & People with comfortable life also


continue to complain about lack of amenities.

领导和人民的意志决定了国家的灵魂,双方都应该作出牺牲,可前者无休止地要求


权力而老百姓则无限地渴望奢华,在西方甚至在中国我都没听说领导人退了还有再上来


的,可我们这儿的领导人则为了当选战斗到最后一息,而那生活润滑的人依然抱怨没有


幸福感/


Sharma Anil (Bangalore)

It is obvious that India will never be a super power. Just think about


the population and the irresponsible and corrupt political and


administrative system. We all should celebrate, if we ever get good toilets


in public places. All cities are stinking and the public transport systems


can cause tetunus to anyone who touches it.

印度永远成不了超级大国,这很明显,只要想想那可怕的人口还有那不负责任而又


腐败的行政管理体制就知道了。如果我们在公共场所有了象样的厕所,那就谢天谢地了


。所有的城市都臭哄哄的,还有那公共交通,只要是哪个人摸一下,准得破伤风!


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