南非向中国模式看齐?那印度模式呢?

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导读:Free-market types tend to argue that China has prospered because, since the late 1970s, it has abandoned or relaxed the state controls with which Mao Zedong once throttled it. By this argument, China is like a spring which was trodden down for decades and

Free-market types tend to argue that China has prospered because, since the late 1970s, it has abandoned or relaxed the state controls with which Mao Zedong once throttled it. By this argument, China is like a spring which was trodden down for decades and from which the boot has been removed, allowing it to bounce back to its natural shape.


自由市场派的人倾向于认为中国已经获得了繁荣,因为中国自从上世纪70年代以来就放弃或者说放松了国家控制。之前毛曾经用这些控制手段遏制了中国的发展。根据这种观点,中国就像一个被压制了几十年的弹簧,而现在踩在上面的靴子挪走了,允许它恢复到自然状态。


Others take the opposite view. Dirigistes insist that the secret of China’s success is that its state is still highly interventionist. South Africa’s president, Jacob Zuma, inclines to this view. He and his circle are convinced the “market fundamentalism” was the cause of the global financial crisis, and have started looking to China for an alternative. Top members of the African National Congress (South Africa’s ruling party) have been making study trips to Beijing to observe how things work there.


其他人则持相反观点。统制经济派的人坚称中国成功的秘诀是还对经济保持着高度干预。南非总统雅各布祖玛倾向于该观点。他和他圈子的人相信是“市场原教旨主义”造成了全球经济危机,他们已经开始向中国看齐寻求解决办法。非洲国民大会(南非执政党)的高层已经开始了北京取经之旅,观察中国经济是如何运作的。


Late last year, Mr Zuma’s government unveiled a plan called the “New Growth Path”. Some of its suggestions, such as a freeze on private-sector wages, sound impractical. And although the details of how it will be implemented are as clear as lumpy sorghum beer, the overall thrust alarms South African business folk. Mr. Zuma wants a “developmental state”, with substantially more government intrusion in the economy.


去年晚些时候,祖玛总统的政府公布了一项称为“新增长之路”的计划。其中某些建议,譬如冻结私营部门的薪水,听起来不切实际。虽然有关计划是如何实施的细节就如波浪起伏的高粱酒一样清晰,但是其中的总体要点却向南非的生意人发出了警告。祖玛总统想要一个“发展型国家”,为此政府本质上要对经济进行更多的干预。


Why, asks a South African businessman, did Mr. Zuma not look to India for an example of how a poor country can grow fast? Culturally, South Africa has much more in common with India than with China. But the ANC rather likes the idea of extending its power over private business and the allocation of capital, he fears. And this will end in tears, he predicts, for a simple reason. China, for all its flaws, has a reasonably competent bureaucracy to implement the central government’s plans. South Africa conspicuously does not.


为什么祖玛总统不向印度学习一个贫穷国家是如何快速发展的?一位南非商人这样问道。相比于中国,印度和南非在文化上有着更多的相似之处。他担心非洲国民大会更喜欢能在私营企业和资本安排中扩展势力的想法。他预测,由于一个简单的原因,这将会在泪水中收场。因为,虽然中国有着各种缺陷,但是它拥有一套相当胜任的官僚机构来执行中央政府的计划。而南非显然没有。

Armenian girl wrote:

Jan 29th 2011 12:21 GMT

Why, asks a South African businessman, did Mr Zuma not look to India for an example of how a poor country can grow fast?

Because India's growth model is top heavy and ultimately unsustainable. A nation of 1 billion can not industrialize on the backs of IT out sourcing alone. What India has is a small English speaking middle that is all roaring thunder and a massive peasant under class that have yet to taste the fruit of urbanization and industrialization. At India's current trajectory, increasing urban slums competing for limited resource will cause intensification of communal violence.

South Africa, having its own problems with rich poor divide and urban poverty should not look to India for inspiration.

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“为什么祖玛总统不向印度学习一个贫穷国家是如何快速发展的?一位南非商人这样问道。”


因为印度的发展模式头重脚轻并且极度不稳定。一个有10亿人口的国家是无法仅靠IT外包就实现工业化的。印度有的只是一小堆只会咆哮如雷的说英语的中产阶级,还有一大堆处于底层尚未尝到城市化和工业化果实的农民(译注:原文中的peasant虽然意思也是农民,但是偏向于穷苦的小农,farmer一般指富农,譬如农场主)。在印度现在的发展道路上,城市中持续增加的平民窟为有限的资源进行竞争,这将会激发公共暴力。


南非有着自己的贫富分化和城市贫困问题,因此不应该从印度那里寻求灵感。



country road wrote:

Jan 29th 2011 5:17 GMT

And this will end in tears, he predicts, for a simple reason. China, for all its flaws, has a reasonably competent bureaucracy to implement the central government’s plans. South Africa conspicuously does not.

——A wonderful insight! South Africa should go their own way, not Chinese,

not Indian. South Africa has more Strengths than China in economic development.

——It is an open secret in “China’s success” that everybody work hard all day and all night. Diligent, frugal and save a lot of money, then lend to American. American repay his debt by papers named “US dollar”.

——BTW, Chinese are comparative unity and dedication, and I rather doubt if South Africa can do it. this is the biggest variable for South Africa.

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他预测,由于一个简单的原因,这将会在泪水中收场。因为,虽然中国有着各种缺陷,但是它拥有一套相当胜任的官僚机构来执行中央政府的计划。而南非显然没有。


--真是真知灼见!南非应该走自己的路,而不应该学中国,也不要学印度。南非在经济发展上比中国更有力量。


--这是关于中国成功的一个公开的秘密:所有人都日夜辛勤劳作。勤劳、简朴、存很多钱,然后把钱借给美国。美国用名为“美元“的纸来还他们的债。


--另外,中国人相当团结,乐于奉献,我很怀疑南非能不能做到这些。这是南非最大的一个变数。


happyfish18 wrote:

Jan 29th 2011 5:02 GMT

With Hu's blessing to broaden the geographical reach, South Africa is now a full fledged member of the BRICS to the dismay of its bigger economic rivals like South Korea, Turkey and Indonesia.

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带着胡主席对于扩展地理范围的祝福,南非现在已经是金砖国家中羽翼丰满的一员,这将会使韩国、土耳其和印度尼西亚这些更大的经济对手感到惊慌。


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