台北时报专访Srikanth Kondapalli:对中国在亚太军事崛起的评估

INTERVIEW: An assessment of

China’s military rise in Asia-Pacific


专访:对中国在亚太军事崛起的评估


Despite reassurances from Beijing that its rise is a peaceful one,

the development of China’s military has raised concerns worldwide.

Srikanth Kondapalli, a professor at the Center for East Asian Studies

at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi,

expounded on his views about US arms sales to Taiwan,

strategic security in Asia and the intricate relationship between Taiwan,

China, the US and India in an interview with ‘Taipei Times’ staff reporter Ko Shu-ling in March


尽管北京一再保证,它的崛起是和平的,对中国的军事发展已引起关注全球。Srikanth Kondapalli,一个在新德里尼赫鲁大学东亚研究中心的教授在邀请后来到台湾,在接受采访时谈到亚洲安全战略方面关于台湾,

中国,美国和印度错综复杂的关系以及美国对台军售时,他阐述了自己的观点。台北时报记者 高淑玲 三月




Taipei Times: China continues its military buildup and advances its offensive weaponry.

Taiwan can only purchase defensive weapons from the US, which is obliged by the Taiwan Relations Act to sell defensive weapons to Taiwan.

Do you think the US will stop selling arms to Taiwan if Taiwan-China relations continue to improve?


台北时报:中国将继续其军事建设和现代化的进攻武器研发。

台湾只能从美国购买些防御性武器,这是由《与台湾关系法》中美国有义务向台湾出售防御性武器。

如果台湾与中国大陆关系继续改善,你是否认为美国将停止出售武器给台湾?


Srikanth Kondapalli: In the recent period, we have seen coordinated development in terms of defense budget increases.

As the GDP of China increased, to US$5.8 trillion, so did the defense budget. The latest one was a 12.7 percent increase [to the military budget].


Srikanth Kondapalli: 在最近一段时期,我们已经看到协调发展方面的国防预算的增长。

随着中国国内生产总值的增加,已达5.8万亿美元,所以国防预算没有增长。

最近的一个是增长了百分之12.7 [向军事预算]。


The Chinese have not suggested why they have been increasing the defense budget,

except to suggest that this is a reaction to the Pentagon budget, which is more than US$700 billion.

So if that is the criteria for matching up with the US’ defense budget, I think we may see a lot of destabilizing tendencies in Asia and beyond.


中方没有说明他们为什么一直在增加国防预算,除了认为这是一个像五角大楼样的预算,超过7000亿美元的情况。

因此,如果是以美国的国防预算为标准参考的话,我认为我们可以看到在亚洲和世界的不稳定倾向有很多。


In the arms sales to Taiwan so far, the US has not given it any offensive weapon systems. What it means is that first,

the alternative for Taiwan is indigenous development in which Taiwan has made substantial progress on several weapon systems.

Secondly, to put pressure on the American public and through this also put pressure on the US Congress,

which is to authorize the US president to supply arms.


在对台军售方面到目前为止,美国并没有卖给它任何攻击性武器系统。

它的意思是,首先,对台湾本土居民的持续发展,从而使台湾的武器系统在若干方面取得重大进展。

其次,美国公众通过对美国国会施加压力,使得美国总统在授权军方向其提供武器时也受到了压力。


China has been using three kinds of warfare, which are psychological warfare, legal warfare and propaganda warfare.

Among these three wars, China has been successful relatively in terms of the propaganda warfare

with the suggestion that if the US comes to the rescue of Taiwan in military means,

then China will use all its assets, including nuclear weapons.


中国一直采用三种战术,就是心理战,法律战和宣传战。

在这三种战术,中国相对而言已成功运用好宣传战,如果美国通过军事手段来营救台湾的话,

那么中国将利用其所有的战争资源对其进行打击,包括核武器。


China has created this fear in the US in terms of the deployment of aircraft carriers.

If you compare the 1958 Taiwan Strait crisis when the US deployed half (six) of its aircraft carriers

in the Taiwan Strait to 1995 and 1996 when the Chinese launched missiles, the US deployed only two aircraft carriers,

meaning there has been a reduction in the number of aircraft carriers they will be able to pitch against China in the event of a war related to Taiwan.


中国建立了航母部署计算,这在美国引起了担忧。 如果比较下,在1958年台海危机时,

美国有一半的航空母舰(六)部署在,但是在1995年和1996年的台海危机时,

中国还发射了导弹,美国只有两艘航空母舰部署在台湾海峡海域,这意味着航母数量出现了减少,

航空母舰将能够对中国发动针对台湾的战争起到遏制的作用。


All these indicate a gradual transition. Also, China has become the second-largest economy, which means that the Group of 2 [China and the US] will be dealing with the international and regional security issues.


所有这些表明一个渐进过渡。 此外,中国已成为世界第二大经济体,这意味着2组[中国和美国]将共同处理国际和地区的安全问题。


Will the US cut down on its arms sales to Taiwan?

That depends first on US public opinion. Secondly, it depends on the US Congress resolutions.

Thirdly, it depends on the assessment by the US regarding the balance.

If it is shifting toward the Chinese as it is now,

then possibly the US Congress will have to discuss these issues by supplying more arms to Taiwan.


美国会削减向台湾出售武器?

第一、这取决于美国国内的舆论。

其次,它取决于美国国会的决议。

第三,它取决于美国对于平衡的评估。

如果战争的优势方正在向中国转移,那么可能是美国国会将讨论通过提供更多的武器给台湾这些问题。

因为它现在是存在的。


In terms of the arms budget, while the initial estimate was about US$18 billion,

the US has only cleared about US$6.8 billion.

So we can come to the conclusion that there is indeed a substantial reduction

in the US arms supplies to Taiwan as compared with the previous estimates, say, about four years ago and last year’s arms sales.


在对台提供的武器预算方面,初步估计约为180亿美元,而美国仅提供了约合68亿美元的武器。

因此,我们可以得出这样的结论,与以前的估计数相比,也就是说,大约四年前,像去年的武器销售。美国对台湾的武器供应中的确有大幅度减少的现象。


TT: As China develops closer ties with Taiwan, it threatens to breach a ring of US allies that effectively contain China,

giving it unimpeded access to the South China Sea and the international trade lanes that run through it. Do you agree that this is a danger?

Insofar as the world wants closer ties across the Taiwan Strait, and so less chance of a military confrontation, what alternatives are there?


台北时报:由于中国与台湾发展的关系更密切,这有可能违反了美国的盟国关系法,难以有效地遏制中国,

使它不受阻碍地进入南中国海和国际贸易通道。

你是否同意,这是一个危险信号吗? 因此整个世界都希望台湾海峡联系的更紧密,以减少军事对抗的可能,在这还有其它的选择吗?




Kondapalli: Last year’s Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement between Taiwan and China has created conditions

for closer cooperation between the two. Previously the “three small links” has now projected to major links.

There have been substantial visits on either side in terms of tourism and business opportunities that have been explored.

In terms of the oral confidence building measures [CBM], both have started CBMs in the military field.

All these have provided some opportunities for reducing tensions in the Taiwan Strait.


Kondapalli:去年的经济合作框架协议创建了台湾与中国进行更密切双方合作的条件。

此前的,“小三通”,如今预计将延伸到其它主要环节上。

两边已经有了实质性的进展讨论,在旅游业和商业合作机会上进行了探讨。

为建立信任双方进行了口头上的承诺[大陆弹道导弹],大陆弹道导弹对台进行相应的减少,以在军事领域建立信任关系。

所有这些都是为减少台湾海峡的紧张局势做努力。


However, the basic issues have not been resolved.

Will China overcome the issue of unification with the use of force? That center issue has not been addressed so far.

There were suggestions from Taiwan previously for removal of ballistic missiles located in Fujian and Zhejiang provinces. However,

then-Chinese president Jiang Zemin (江泽民) suggested that unless the US reduced arms sales to Taiwan,

there would not be any reduction in the missile batteries located in Fujian and Zhejiang provinces.


但是,基本问题没有得到解决。 请问中国是否已克服了使用武力的统一问题?

到目前为止该中心问题仍然没有得到解决。 有人士建议把以前在福建和浙江等省对准台湾的弹道导弹清除。

然而,当时的中国国家主席江泽民(江泽民)建议,除非美国减少对台湾军售,否则在福建和浙江等省的导弹基地不会有任何的减少。


Although Taiwan has substantial economic and technological progress, Taiwan tends to fall into the hollowing out to mainland China,

as Japan and South Korea are also facing the same problem.

What it then means is Taiwanese chips are generally considered to be low as compared with China, as China is rising.


台湾虽然有雄厚的经济和先进技术基础,但台湾往往会像中国大陆、日本以及韩国一样陷入空洞化。

这就好比为什么台湾的通用芯片常被认为比中国低,因为中国正在崛起。


Having said that, Taiwan is making all efforts to beef up its defenses. In the light of the US-China condominium,

will it have an impact in terms of Taiwan at the strategic and regional levels? Yes, indeed it will.


话虽如此,台湾是尽一切努力来加强其防御能力。

在美中国共管期间,还会有台湾在战略和区域层次上的影响? 是的,的确会的。


What impact that will have on Taiwan and in general in neighboring countries is not clear,

but it appears that Taiwan is being relegated to the background. Until Taiwan has several options up its sleeve,

it will be difficult to emerge from this situation.


将会有什么影响,对台湾与邻近国家一般不明确,但看起来,台湾国际背景下是被降级的。

除非台湾能有几个高招出来,否则台湾将很难摆脱这种局面。


What are the options that Taiwan can have? Obviously, Taiwan should focus on its economic and technological edge.

Taiwanese are highly talented people, so a lot of things Taiwan can develop, in terms of influencing the internal opinion.


台湾什么样的招数可以有用? 显然,台湾应注重其经济和技术优势。

台湾人是非常有才华的人,所以很多东西在台湾可以得以发展从而影响政府内部的意见。


In terms of influencing the regional architecture, for instance,

Vietnam started conducting conferences on the South China Sea in the last two or three years.

That issue then became a major highlight,

so one of the things Taiwan could do is attract global attention to the problems it is facing and

seek international support in terms of the possible use of force by China and the destruction it will entail.


从地缘政治方面的影响来看,例如,从越南在过去两三年中针对南中国海所举行的会议开始。

这个问题后来成为一大亮点,因此台湾可以做的事情之一,就是吸引全球关注此问题,

从其它角度寻求国际社会的支持,以防止中国可能使用的武力来对其实行破坏打击。


I think Taiwan can also develop military technologies.

Since Taiwan has relatively high-tech industries, most of these also could be dual use in nature.

Hence, Taiwan has the capability to produce systems which could deter China.


我认为台湾也可以发展军事技术。 由于台湾具有较高的高科技产业,其中大部分也可在自然下进行军民双重用途。

因此,台湾有能力制造武器系统,能够阻止中国。


Finally, Taiwan needs to effectively implement the “go south” policy in which Taiwan wants to invest in Vietnam,

the Philippines and India. Taiwan needs to explore these options as well.


最后,台湾必须有效地实施“南向”政策,台湾愿意在越南、菲律宾和印度投资。 台湾需要对这些方案进行探索。



TT: Do you agree with those who see a growing divide between the Communist Party and [Chinese] People’s Liberation Army [PLA],

or at least an increasing hawkishness in the military and its ability to affect party policy?


台北时报:你同意那些认为共党与解放军之间的关系越来越不密切,或者那些认为解放军越来越强势并有能力左右共党的政策的人吗?


Kondapalli: I agree with the position that there is a lot of influence by the Chinese military on the -decisionmaking process of China.


Kondapalli: 我赞成这样的说法:中国军队在很大程度上影响着中国政策的制定。


In the decisionmaking process, there are four or five main corporate groups which are quite influential in the Chinese system.


有4个或者5个有重大国内影响力的主要组织机构在主导着政策的制定进程。


One is obviously the Chinese Communist Party and its small leading groups and the foreign affairs bureau and the military -affairs bureau.

The party channelizes its views from different provinces, including Xiamen, Fujian and -Zhejiang,

which will have to face the music if there is a war between Taiwan and China because geographically

they are the ones which will have to face the problem and destruction.


其一显然是中国共产党及其核心领导团、外交部和国防部。

共产党梳理了各省关于中台关系的意见,包括一旦引发战事将直接面临破坏的厦门(老外认为是省)、福建及浙江三省所承担的后果。


The foreign ministry, which is more problematic, has to consider rising nationalism in China.

The third major corporate unit is the PLA, Chinese military with the central military commission,

as it affects every other decision of China in the military sphere.


外交部有个更重要的问题是,要考虑日益上升的中国民族主义。

第三大机构组织是中国人民解放军,由中央军委调控的中国军队影响着中国所有的军事政策。


fourth organization, which is in recent periods a major influence, is the ministry of commerce,

which overlooks the trade and commerce and a lot of other issues related to this.

The ministry of commerce has been emphasizing attracting investment, including from Taiwan.


第四个机构组织,是商务部,后者在最近时期,有着重大的影响力。它可以操控贸易和商业规则以及许多和商业有关的其他问题。 商务部一直强调吸引投资,包括来自台湾。


Taiwan’s contribution to China’s foreign direct investment is more than US$300 billion,

which is more than one-third of what China has received so far. It means that Taiwan is contributing to China’s rise.

This is quite strange. If Taiwan thinks China is a security issue, how come Taiwan is contributing to China’s rise,

which would have marginalized Taiwan?


台湾对中国的直接投资贡献已超过了三千亿美元,占目前中国所获外资总额的三分之一还多。

这意味着,台湾是促进中国崛起的。可这是很奇怪,如果台湾认为中国对其安全构成隐患,

为何台湾还是在促进中国的崛起,台湾将有被边缘化的危险吗?


So these are the four corporate units in China which influence the decision-making. Above all, the PLA in the recent period is clubbing up with rising nationalism.

The PLA is a highly patriotic organization in China. Rising nationalism plus the PLA are a deadly combination in terms of exerting policy.


因此,这些都是在中国影响决策的四大组织机构。

最重要的是,近段时间,由于民族主义的提升,解放军变得更加精干了。 在中国人民解放军是一个高度的爱国组织。

在实施政策方面,不断提升的民族主义与解放军是密不可分的。


TT: India and the US have made significant progress in narrowing their historical differences.

This places India increasingly at the other end of the ring of containment of China.

What are the advantages and disadvantages for India in playing this role in the geopolitics of Southeast Asia?


台北时报:印度和美国已在缩小分歧方面取得历史性的重大进展。

这就使印度越来越多地出现在遏制中国环节的另一端。 印度在东南亚的地缘政治中有哪些优势和劣势?


Kondapalli: From July 2005, we have had a 10-year defense cooperation agreement,

which will last until 2015, and possibly will be extended further. India has been importing a lot of US military technologies.

We also have [made] substantial progress in the space program between the two sides.


Kondapalli: 2005年7月,我们已进行了10年防务合作协议,这将持续到2015年,并可能会进一步延长。

与美国的合作中印度一直是一个大量引进美军技术的角色。双方在太空计划之间的合作上,我们也有[制造]实质性进展。


On this issue [containing China], India has some reservations.

The Indian prime minister suggested India is not part of containing China partly because it means that

we have to substantially increase our defense budgets, which we cannot afford because our focus is on economic development and

on human resource development.


在这个问题上[含中国],印度有一些保留。

印度总理建议印度不要成为遏制中国的一部分,因为这意味着我们必须大大增加我们的国防预算,

这是我们无法承受,因为我们的重点是放在经济发展和人力资源开发上。


原文:www.fanyitie.com/kejijunshi/698.html

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