中国可能永远不会超过美国,起码在未来10-15年是这样。用中国过去30年的趋势展望未来30年是犯了一个基本错误。中国从1949-1978的情况也根本无法与1979-2009相比。因此,有足够的理由相信2010-2040 年中国的表现又会不同。


最重要并最肯定的因素是中国的老龄化问题。在过去的30年中,中国的人口增长对中国的发展非常有利,但是,今后30年的中国人口变化,将不利于中国的经济发展。人口从有利于发展到不利于发展的转折点将在2015年左右出现并难以看到尽头。


在1985年,19-29岁的中国人口为总劳动力人口的47%。但是,2030年,这一数字将降低为26%。在2035年,可怕的2.8亿人口的年龄将在65岁及以上。减少的劳动者需要工作抚养更多的退休人员。


前一个挑战美国的对手- 日本,曾面对过同样的问题。在过去的15年内,日本经济没有发展。在未来的15年及之后,中国人口结构将越来越像今天的日本


(以下为原文)

China may not pass the U.S. at all, much less in the next 10 or 15 years. It is a fundamental mistake to graft the previous 30-year trend onto the next 30. The China of 1949 to 1978 looked nothing like the China of 1979 to 2009, and there are powerful reasons to believe that 2010 to 2040 will be very different again.


The most important and most certain aspect is an aging Chinese population. The last 30 years were characterized by demographic expansion very favorable to growth in the PRC. The next 30 will be generally characterized by demographics unfavorable to growth. The transition from growth-conducive to growth-hostile demographics will begin about the middle of this decade and continue indefinitely.


In 1985, 15-year-olds to 29-year-olds made up 47 percent of the working-age population in China. In 2030, they will make up only 26 percent. By 2035, a daunting 280 million people are projected to be 65 or older.[2] Far fewer people will be working to support far more retirees.


The previous economic challenger to the U.S., Japan, has faced the same problem. Over the past 15 years, the Japanese economy has not grown at all. Over the next 15 years and beyond, China's population structure will become more and more similar to Japan's today.