老外旅游札记:中国的未来 [转]

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导读:Is China a rising power destined to challenge the global dominance of the United States? Or is it another Soviet Union that will flower and fade? You get a better sense of these things when you travel, and my more current impressions follow below. ...

Is China a rising power destined to challenge the global dominance of the United States? Or is it another Soviet Union that will flower and fade? You get a better sense of these things when you travel, and my more current impressions follow below.


... ... 中国到底是一个注定要挑战美国全球主导地位的新兴力量,还是另一个如鲜花般绽放后无情凋谢的苏联?百闻不如一见,下面就是我去中国旅行后最新的一些观感。 中国到底是一个注定要挑战美国全球主导地位的新兴力量,还是另一个如鲜花般绽放后无情凋谢的苏联? 百闻不如一见,下面就是我去中国旅行后最新的一些观感。


First, traveling to China always makes me think the optimists have it wrong. Popular commentators like Thomas Friedman and Dr. Tom Barnett rave about China as the next big thing. These guys need to actually go to China -- and by that I mean they must travel outside Beijing and Shanghai. It's easy to go to the major coastal cities and think that China is ready to conquer the globe. But once you go into the interior, the country is ramshackle. The environmental conditions atrocious and the infrastructure barely functions. In many ways, the peasants of China's interior lead a worse life than similar social classes I've seen in poorer countries


首先,在中国实地旅行,我指的是在北京和上海以外的地区旅行,会让你觉得,对中国前景抱乐观主义的态度不再那么令人信服。京沪两地很容易给人以中国将征服世界的错觉,不过,一旦你深入边远腹地,你将发现,这个国家摇摇欲坠 - 环境恶劣、基建凋敝,当地农民和其他一些贫穷国家低层百姓相比,日子似乎更为艰难。


China's economic growth isn't scary to me. Competition is good. Energy supplies may be limited, but the growth has raised (and will continue to raise) the living standards of so many destitute people. And the Chinese have lots of ambition, even with scarce resources and limited means.


中国经济增长并不令人惊奇,物竞天择,尽管能源供是有限的,但经济增长毕竟提高了(并将继续提高)众多贫困人口的生活水平。中国人雄心万丈,并未受到资源匮乏和体制约束的限制。 中国经济增长并不令人惊奇,物竞天择,尽管能源供是有限的,但经济增长毕竟提高了(并将继续提高)众多贫困人口的生活水平。中国人雄心万丈,并未受到资源匮乏和体制约束的限制。



Regarding political freedoms, I think Robert D. Kaplan is right when he says that [today's] Chinese Communist Party has done more to raise living standards than any other ruling elite in any society in the modern world. Had a dysfunctional democracy arisen out of Tiananmen Square in 1989, China would not be as rich as it is today. Human rights must be viewed in context, and the right to an education, to eat, to work, and to raise a family are far more important than the right to vote.


关于政治自由,我很认同卡普兰的观点,他认为在现代史中所有社会里,当今的中共为提高人民生活水平,所作努力最为卓著。如果吧酒天门产生出一个运转不良的民主制,中国不会如今日般富裕。人权的概念应该因时因地,教育,吃饭,工作和养育家庭的权利比投票的权利更为根本。 关于政治自由,我很认同Robert D Kaplan的观点,他认为在现代史中所有社会里,当今的中共为提高人民生活水平,所作努力最为卓著。如果吧酒天门产生出一个运转不良的民主制,中国不会如今日般富裕。人权的概念应该因时因地,教育、吃饭、工作和养育家庭的权利比投票的权利更为根本。


The one exception is freedom of the press, my biggest point of genuine concern. I can't help but notice that so many Chinese people wear their national resentment on their sleeve. Scratch the surface and many strongly resent the United States, Japan, Taiwan, and the West. This is encouraged in the education system and the media, where any introspection or self-criticism is all but prohibited.


唯一例外的是新闻自由,这也是我最挠心的地方。很多中国人毫不掩饰他们的民族主义,强烈怨恨美,日,台和西方。中国的教育是孕育民族主义的土壤之一,而在中国媒体上,根本没有任何反思和自我批评。 唯一例外的是新闻自由,这也是我最挠心的地方。很多中国人毫不掩饰他们的民族主义,强烈怨恨美、日、台和西方。中国的教育是孕育民族主义的土壤之一,而在中国媒体上,根本没有任何反思和自我批评。


Compare: Vietnam is arguably less free than China. But there's open talk among Vietnamese people of their dissatisfaction with the government. 。 While the police presence on the street in Vietnam was more overbearing than China, the internet was not censored to the same extent as China , internet cafes operated illegally after hours, and in Saigon and Hanoi I heard people speak ill of their government. By contrast, any suggestion in China that things could be better was met with a strong defense of government policy or the way things were.


相比之下,越南的自由度虽然据说没中国大,但...... 相比之下,越南的自由度虽然据说没中国大,但 ...... 互联网没中国审查的那么厉害...... 互联网没中国审查的那么厉害 ...... 在中国,任何指出有待完善之处的建议,都会被人们驳斥,或是为政府的政策辩护,或是以“中国特色”来搪塞。 在中国,任何指出有待完善之处的建议,都会被人们驳斥,或是为政府的政策辩护,或是以“中国特色”来搪塞。


I wish the best for China, and hope it continues to grow. But I fear the lack of introspection and unquestioning nationalism -- rooted, in my experience, in the percieved success of other nations at the expense of China -- indicates to me big problems in the future.


我衷心祝福中国,也希望看到中国继续发展。但是,缺乏反思的民族特质,还有,不容置疑的民族主义... 我衷心祝福中国,也希望看到中国继续发展。但是,缺乏反思的民族特质,还有,不容置疑的民族主义 ... 对我来说,绝对是中国未来的不详之兆。 对我来说,绝对是中国未来的不详之兆。



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